chietanen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 They cancelled the advisory for the city, overnight, it probably should have stayed up. You're right. From Upton's 443 am AFD: AS OF 9Z...PRECIPITATION WAS ONLY REPORTED REACHING THE GROUND AS FAR N AS KSBY. THIS SUPPORTS HIGH RES MODELS AND 6Z NAM IDEA OF AREA STAYING DRY THROUGH 12Z. BASED ON THE SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT COASTAL AREAS TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NYC...HUDSON...E UNION AND ESSEX...AND S WESTCHESTER...FAIRFIELD AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT WITH TIMING UNCHANGED...AS THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT THE START THERE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN THROUGHOUT BY MID MORNING. BEFORE THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY A GLAZE OF ICE...EXCEPT UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS W ORANGE COUNTY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH RESPECT TO THE WARMING OF THE GROUND. FOR AREAS WITHOUT AN ADVISORY...ANY PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN WHICH DO OCCUR WILL BE ADDRESSED BY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE ADVISORY AREA COULD END UP GETTING TRIMMED BACK FURTHER AROUND ITS EDGES WITH LITTLE...IF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER THAN FORECAST OR TEMPERATURES RISE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 You're right. Please don't ever tell him this .., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Please don't ever tell him this .., I already printed it and hung it on my fridge. Wife not amused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I already printed it and hung it on my fridge. Wife not amused. Nice! Up to 30 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 I think the NAM was/is mistaking the freezing rain as snow. It consistently was showing accumulating snow at the onset (on the snow maps) for NE PA, NJ, and the Hudson Valley. If you look at the snow maps for the 12z NAM, it shows 1-3" of snow for the same area by 21z today. We all knew it wasn't going to snow, if at all, until the very end, which isn't until later tonight. assumption may be right. GFS shows a similar set up later today. 850 marker past the area with decent precip falling for a few hours. Time will tell what occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Please don't ever tell him this .., I already printed it and hung it on my fridge. Wife not amused. Moderate ZR and up to 31 here now. Shouldn't be much longer until I edge above freezing. Latest GFS has clipper redeveloping again, but a little too far south and east to have much of an impact for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Moderate ZR and up to 31 here now. Shouldn't be much longer until I edge above freezing. Latest GFS has clipper redeveloping again, but a little too far south and east to have much of an impact for us. Just reached 32 here near KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Moderate ZR and up to 31 here now. Shouldn't be much longer until I edge above freezing. Latest GFS has clipper redeveloping again, but a little too far south and east to have much of an impact for us. This is the winter where forecasts for no snow always verify and forecasts for snow rarely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 assumption may be right. GFS shows a similar set up later today. 850 marker past the area with decent precip falling for a few hours. Time will tell what occurs But soundings show levels below 850s well above freezing . Hope im wrong but besides a left over snow shower or two u won't see any snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 31f here w/ ZR Heard the thruway was closed from Newburgh to Suffern. Literally just reopend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Please don't ever tell him this .., lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 But soundings show levels below 850s well above freezing . Hope im wrong but besides a left over snow shower or two u won't see any snow accums Well DT made his call. He would not be this foolish to publish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Kinda far out in its range, but the HRRR is showing a changeover at the end for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well DT made his call. He would not be this foolish to publish.Like I said I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it on any model . Currently 33.2 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Like I said I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it on any model . Currently 33.2 here I would be shocked too. Temp has climbed to 44F. Did not expect this warmth. Going to take the dogs for a nice walk for once with comfortable temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well DT made his call. He would not be this foolish to publish.LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Still at 31 with pouring rain, I really hope the warm air gets in here as my driveway was icy from Monday still before this even started. Upton hints that it may not warm all that much here today, we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 33 now with lain rain, but surfaces still icy. Ice should slowly erode. Hoping for a thump of snow to end it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's elevation warmth today. I have had no ice at all from this storm at my house but go down 400 feet to the thruway less then a couple of miles from me, it was closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Was on the thruway doing 15mph.. As I passed the gsp exit I must have counted 10 abandoned wrecked cars in ditches.. Temp down here has warned to 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well DT made his call. He would not be this foolish to publish. That's actually the revised version lol.. Had Orange County receiving up to 4" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Was on the thruway doing 15mph.. As I passed the gsp exit I must have counted 10 abandoned wrecked cars in ditches.. Temp down here has warned to 37I just saw a photo of that which Hudson Valley Weather posted, what a mess. Up to 32 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 What roads look like . Starting to melt on roads . Temp 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 My backyard is hovering between 32-33 degrees. Ice has mostly melted though. Just a little left on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 At 32.2 now. Temp only went up .2 of a deg. since 11:30. CAD is tough today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 At 32.2 now. Temp only went up .2 of a deg. since 11:30. CAD is tough today.Agreed. I'm at 33 on the Davis and 32.5 on my cheaper thermometer, still plenty of ice out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Massive pileup on the cross bx/hutch interchange.. A good 10-15 cars involved.. Overpass freezing ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Massive pileup on the cross bx/hutch interchange.. A good 10-15 cars involved.. Overpass freezing ftlThis afternoon or from this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This afternoon or from this morning? Whatever salt that was put down this morning is long gone with the rain. Heads up for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I was just wondering if they are still having ice issues down there...I just came inside, I sure as hell still have ice issues, I was really hoping to break into the warmth and get rid of the ground ice. I could lace em up for a stroll down my driveway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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