chietanen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Looks like we might get a quick burst of snow as the front moves through this afternoon. That line looks pretty stout across central NY. I'm sure the Catskills will break it apart a bit, but something to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Looks like we might get a quick burst of snow as the front moves through this afternoon. That line looks pretty stout across central NY. I'm sure the Catskills will break it apart a bit, but something to track at least. Yeah, I've been watching that this morning too. Maybe I'll get another 20 second burst of flurries like I did with the front last week. Every now and then those lines do hold together though, so its always fun to track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I had about a 20 minute snow shower a little less than an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I had about a 20 minute snow shower a little less than an hour ago. Had about a 5 minute flurry here with some gusty winds. Sun is back out again. Was looking at the Euro and, while I wouldn't expect anything, I wonder if we can sneak a little snow on the tail end of the Sunday system. The cold air looks to get in a little faster on this run. Surface is warm, but it looks like 850's top out at zero. GFS looked like it was close too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 very light snow shower here. not much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Had about a 5 minute flurry here with some gusty winds. Sun is back out again. Was looking at the Euro and, while I wouldn't expect anything, I wonder if we can sneak a little snow on the tail end of the Sunday system. The cold air looks to get in a little faster on this run. Surface is warm, but it looks like 850's top out at zero. GFS looked like it was close too. I haven't been following closely at all but you are not expecting snow from the Euro I'm guessing, right? Looks like a soaking rain though right and not a complete miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 very light snow shower here. not much at all About 5 flakes here. Line fell apart as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I haven't been following closely at all but you are not expecting snow from the Euro I'm guessing, right? Looks like a soaking rain though right and not a complete miss? It backed off on amounts and slid a bit further east vs 0z. KPOU had 0.9" at 12z vs 1.4" at 0z. I don't expect anything more than a few mangled flakes at the end, but the cold air seemingly almost caught up with the precipitation on this run, so I think maybe it bears watching over the next couple runs. That was my main point. The GFS, btw, went from dry at 0z to 1.2" at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It backed off on amounts and slid a bit further east vs 0z. KPOU had 0.9" at 12z vs 1.4" at 0z. I don't expect anything more than a few mangled flakes at the end, but the cold air seemingly almost caught up with the precipitation on this run, so I think maybe it bears watching over the next couple runs. That was my main point. The GFS, btw, went from dry at 0z to 1.2" at 12z. Great news for the new GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Good day weather fans, Low this morning was 4F. Current temp is 16. Did a quick look at the 12 Z GFS and it still indicates that the interior should flip to snow late tomorrow. Not an expert, but if cold air wraps in early, a few inches may be possible. Wet run on the 12 z gfs for the storm. hr 39 is the second image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Does anybody know what the Max QPF for KMSV is for tomorrow's storm? Seems that areas East of my longitude will do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Enjoy the cold rain tomorrow.......NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Does anybody know what the Max QPF for KMSV is for tomorrow's storm? Seems that areas East of my longitude will do much better. The 12z NAM has a couple of hours of ZR then rain. Total QPF of 0.39 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z NAM has a couple of hours of ZR then rain. Total QPF of 0.39 . With our elevation I think we might have more frozen than wet hence my high QPF wish, hopefully that will will trend better. Is there a link you can give me that I can go to see QPF amounts? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 With our elevation I think we might have more frozen than wet hence my high QPF wish, hopefully that will will trend better. Is there a link you can give me that I can go to see QPF amounts? Thanks. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kmsv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Does anybody know what the Max QPF for KMSV is for tomorrow's storm? Seems that areas East of my longitude will do much better. It won't matter with tomorrows event.. Most of the precip that falls will be in the warm sector with little if any falling as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kmsv PERFECT!!! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It won't matter with tomorrows event.. Most of the precip that falls will be in the warm sector with little if any falling as snow. True. So close, yet so far away. A couple of degrees cooler aloft and we'd have a nice snowstorm on our hands. Just saw the 12z GFS. It actually spikes my temp up from 33 to 48 degrees briefly tomorrow afternoon. Looks like the Euro gets to low 40's. Didn't realize the surface was so warm on previous runs. That being said, I would watch for some freezing rain/drizzle at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Temp has jumped to 34 f on the ridge line. Ice threat over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 21.9 degrees in Liberty NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Temp has jumped to 34 f on the ridge line. Ice threat over Just hit 36f Impressed with the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Awesome!! 28* and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Thruway is a disaster down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Just hit 36f Impressed with the warm air. Wow must be some really shallow cold than, 25.7 with mod freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's ugly out there. Nothing moving on my street other than the town salt truck that just came by. Just watched the dog go down trying to walk up the dirt hill to pee. She crawled back down, came in and peed on the floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 True. So close, yet so far away. A couple of degrees cooler aloft and we'd have a nice snowstorm on our hands. Just saw the 12z GFS. It actually spikes my temp up from 33 to 48 degrees briefly tomorrow afternoon. Looks like the Euro gets to low 40's. Didn't realize the surface was so warm on previous runs. That being said, I would watch for some freezing rain/drizzle at the onset. The frozen at the onset was modeled, at least up here. I don't know that models are busting as bad as some are claiming in the metro forum. And when I went to bed last night, I believe there were freezing rain advisories for a large area of Upton's CWA, no? Currently sitting at 28 with freezing drizzle. Heavier stuff just about to move in. Midweek clipper looks pretty weak sauce on models with the exception of the Euro, which nails DC area. Hopefully it comes back to life as we get closer. Stay safe this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 12z nam still inducates NW zones flip to snow tonight Upto 41 f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The frozen at the onset was modeled, at least up here. I don't know that models are busting as bad as some are claiming in the metro forum. And when I went to bed last night, I believe there were freezing rain advisories for a large area of Upton's CWA, no? Currently sitting at 28 with freezing drizzle. Heavier stuff just about to move in. Midweek clipper looks pretty weak sauce on models with the exception of the Euro, which nails DC area. Hopefully it comes back to life as we get closer. Stay safe this morning! My temp started to climb when the steadier rain moved in, up to 29 now, what a mess out there at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 The frozen at the onset was modeled, at least up here. I don't know that models are busting as bad as some are claiming in the metro forum. And when I went to bed last night, I believe there were freezing rain advisories for a large area of Upton's CWA, no? Currently sitting at 28 with freezing drizzle. Heavier stuff just about to move in. Midweek clipper looks pretty weak sauce on models with the exception of the Euro, which nails DC area. Hopefully it comes back to life as we get closer. Stay safe this morning! They cancelled the advisory for the city, overnight, it probably should have stayed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 12z nam still inducates NW zones flip to snow tonight Upto 41 f I think the NAM was/is mistaking the freezing rain as snow. It consistently was showing accumulating snow at the onset (on the snow maps) for NE PA, NJ, and the Hudson Valley. If you look at the snow maps for the 12z NAM, it shows 1-3" of snow for the same area by 21z today. We all knew it wasn't going to snow, if at all, until the very end, which isn't until later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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