sn0w Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Driveway is still a sheet of ice...cannot physically walk up it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Animal, on 12 Jan 2015 - 1:45 PM, said: Hopefully NYC does not get measurable snow again this season. Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nice little weenie band of flurries/light snow here with a temp of 32 atm. Short term models had it showing up off and on throughout the day. Won't amount to much, but a nice way to end another fairly disappointing system. Was checking out the RAP and HRRR, and they both bring very cold air into the region quickly tonight, as low as 6 at KPOU with below zero readings not too far away, and some -20's to -30's in the far reaches of the Adirondacks. Seems a bit overdone compared to some of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Some light snow here too, maybe half a coating out there. One thing is for sure, it's going to be icy in the morning around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nice little weenie band of flurries/light snow here with a temp of 32 atm. Short term models had it showing up off and on throughout the day. Won't amount to much, but a nice way to end another fairly disappointing system. Was checking out the RAP and HRRR, and they both bring very cold air into the region quickly tonight, as low as 6 at KPOU with below zero readings not too far away, and some -20's to -30's in the far reaches of the Adirondacks. Seems a bit overdone compared to some of the globals. Was just out in South Blooming Grove in Orange county and roads covered up quick with sleet falling. Temp down to 32. Radar at this time looks like an hour of precip to fall then will freeze up with temps falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I see the flakes flying again. Tomorrow morning will be slippery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 20 degrees, the sun is out and the air is filled with flakes, a lovely winter morning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Down to 4 degrees, looking to make a run at zero overnight. No big storms on the horizon, yet, but the thaw looks fairly muted. That's one piece of good news moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Sitting at zero. Cold is confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 There is some snow and ice on the ground and it is well below freezing. The look and feel of winter is here, unlike many seasons where even getting to what we have now is like pulling teeth. Not a bad season so far for us inland folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Poughkeepsie had a low temperature of 4° this morning. That was Poughkeepsie's coldest temperature since March 4, 2014 when the mercury fell to -2°. Albany's -10° minimum temperature was that city's coldest reading since January 4, 2014 when the temperature fell to -12°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Poughkeepsie had a low temperature of 4° this morning. That was Poughkeepsie's coldest temperature since March 4, 2014 when the mercury fell to -2°. Albany's -10° minimum temperature was that city's coldest reading since January 4, 2014 when the temperature fell to -12°. Nice, thanks for the info Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Recorded a minimum of -2.2F here. Driveway and patio still caked in ice after Monday's slopfest, despite copious amounts of icemelt. That frozen slush also rendered my pond useless for skating until the next warmup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Recorded a minimum of -2.2F here. Driveway and patio still caked in ice after Monday's slopfest, despite copious amounts of icemelt. That frozen slush also rendered my pond useless for skating until the next warmup... My driveway is a bobsled run, which is actually OK with me, just wish I had some decent sized snowbanks on each side to guide me in the right direction, just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Recorded a minimum of -2.2F here. Driveway and patio still caked in ice after Monday's slopfest, despite copious amounts of icemelt. That frozen slush also rendered my pond useless for skating until the next warmup... Nice minimum! Dropped to 1 here, second coldest of the season. Surprisingly, still hanging on to some snow pack here after the rain on Monday (albeit only about an inch). My rink was a bumpy mess last night, but I resurfaced last night and it's smooth today. How far away is your pond, can you run a hose to it or maybe one of those garden sprayers to resurface on the cold nights? My driveway is a bobsled run, which is actually OK with me, just wish I had some decent sized snowbanks on each side to guide me in the right direction, just in case. I love riding my sled down the driveway when it's like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Canadian has us in shorts and flip-flops next weekend (it's on an island as of now, which is where I wish I was right now!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Canadian has us in shorts and flip-flops next weekend (it's on an island as of now, which is where I wish I was right now!) cmc_t2m_nyc_39.png Well, its not like we have a snowpack to protect...with all due respect to your rink...I say bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Canadian has us in shorts and flip-flops next weekend (it's on an island as of now, which is where I wish I was right now!) cmc_t2m_nyc_39.png That's clearly an interesting solution, though one I don't want to see. Odds currently are against such a solution, as the EPO is forecast to be dropping rapidly around that timeframe. The AO remains uncertain. If one looks carefully enough, the CMC is actually not completely on its own. Here's where things currently stand for 1/24 (relative to normal): 1/14 12z GFS: Very cold 1/14 12z GEFS: Cold 1/14 0z EPS: Cold 1/14 12z ECMWF: Cold 1/14 GEFS Objective Analogs (8-day rolled forward by 2 days): Warm 1/14 GEFS Objective Analogs (11-day rolled backward by 1 day): Cold The preponderance of guidance is on the cold side of normal. Nevertheless, especially when one considers that the 8-day GEFS analogs rolled forward would be warm, perhaps the CMC scenario is one in which the return to colder weather would take a little longer than what the other guidance is suggesting. Candidates for such an outcome might be a somewhat slower pattern evolution (kind of like late December?), a storm that cuts (especially if the AO remains positive), etc. I do think we'll be turning colder or cold by the 24th, but there's enough of a contradictory signal in a timeframe where uncertainty is always elevated that I'll keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 That's clearly an interesting solution, though one I don't want to see. Odds currently are against such a solution, as the EPO is forecast to be dropping rapidly around that timeframe. The AO remains uncertain. If one looks carefully enough, the CMC is actually not completely on its own. Here's where things currently stand for 1/24 (relative to normal): 1/14 12z GFS: Very cold 1/14 12z GEFS: Cold 1/14 0z EPS: Cold 1/14 12z ECMWF: Cold 1/14 GEFS Objective Analogs (8-day rolled forward by 2 days): Warm 1/14 GEFS Objective Analogs (11-day rolled backward by 1 day): Cold The preponderance of guidance is on the cold side of normal. Nevertheless, especially when one considers that the 8-day GEFS analogs rolled forward would be warm, perhaps the CMC scenario is one in which the return to colder weather would take a little longer than what the other guidance is suggesting. Candidates for such an outcome might be a somewhat slower pattern evolution (kind of like late December?), a storm that cuts (especially if the AO remains positive), etc. I do think we'll be turning colder or cold by the 24th, but there's enough of a contradictory signal in a timeframe where uncertainty is always elevated that I'll keep an eye on it. Check the MJO forecast . I think the Canadian stops in phase 6 . The GFS and Euro get through phase 7 , that could be the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Check the MJO forecast . I think the Canadian stops in phase 6 . The GFS and Euro get through phase 7 , that could be the difference I agree. I believe the highest probability favors cold and not the CMC scenario. As the MJO is already approaching Phase 7 and has been progressing into a new phase roughly every 7 days recently, I think the GFS and ECMWF probably have a better MJO forecast. Still, there's just enough for me to keep an eye on it, though I think even if the CMC solution verifies to some extent, it will likely be a short-lived spike in temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I agree. I believe the highest probability favors cold and not the CMC scenario. As the MJO is already approaching Phase 7 and has been progressing into a new phase roughly every 7 days recently, I think the GFS and ECMWF probably have a better MJO forecast. Still, there's just enough for me to keep an eye on it, though I think even if the CMC solution verifies to some extent, it will likely be a short-lived spike in temperatures. But will we have any snowpack to protect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 But will we have any snowpack to protect... Whatever you lose by Monday you may get back very quickly .That's an all around great pattern in front of us. We have not seen a set up like this all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Whatever you lose by Monday you may get back very quickly . That's an all around great pattern in front of us. We have not seen a set up like this all year. Well, I only have a coating basically now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Thanks for the great perspective Don and Paul. Appreciate you guys chiming in with your expertise here. It doesn't seem like the Canadian is a likely scenario, but it was so warm that I thought it was worth a mention. Well, its not like we have a snowpack to protect...with all due respect to your rink...I say bring it. Those are fighting words! Actually, a few warm days here and there are not a bad thing in my mind. Gives me a break from skating/resurfacing, and usually ends up giving me a smoother surface when it does get cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 good day weather fans, light snow shower in progress. Temp 19F High 22 today. Keeping an eye on the Sunday-Monday possible storm. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This cold is too much for me. I like mid 20s to low 30s for highs with teens at night, not near zero! A break from this intense cold will be a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Thanks for the great perspective Don and Paul. Appreciate you guys chiming in with your expertise here. 100% agree. Looks like I may approach freezing today, maybe the ice covering my driveway will loosen up its grip a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 HV is in the snow zone Sunday according to this map. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/storm-snow-rain-northeast-weekend/40663430 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I still have about 1-1.5" of cement on the property. Looks like a good part of our region has been averaging 4-6f below normal since the 1st of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Thought this was a fun looking map 2 weeks away and an OP run, but similar signs of cold showing up on ensembles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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