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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


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Weee fun drive home  :whistle:   Not.  Super wet with sh*t visibility.  At least it's above freezing so it was just wet until I got to the last half mile where there was still a bunch of slush on the road.  Tough to tell what I got here but it looks like it was about 2".  

 

What's the timing look like for the clipper on Tuesday?  I want to make a run up to Albany to look at a used truck.

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Weee fun drive home  :whistle:   Not.  Super wet with sh*t visibility.  At least it's above freezing so it was just wet until I got to the last half mile where there was still a bunch of slush on the road.  Tough to tell what I got here but it looks like it was about 2".  

 

What's the timing look like for the clipper on Tuesday?  I want to make a run up to Albany to look at a used truck.

 

Maybe late morning? Looks like little more than scattered snow showers on the GFS. NAM is a little more robust, but we're 60 hours out.

 

Check out the 1060 mb anticyclone dropping into the midwest from Canada on d3. Impressive.

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This storm pretty much performed as forecasted for most up here.. 2-3" of snow followed by some icing. Side roads are still pretty slushy on this side. Temp holding steady between 32-33

I was surprised temps are still teetering around freezing, last I checked I was suppose to be climbing close to 38-40 by 7am this morning

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I was surprised temps are still teetering around freezing, last I checked I was suppose to be climbing close to 38-40 by 7am this morning

The meso models had been delaying the warm up when I checked last night. Looks like we still spike to 50, but probably not until after the rain tapers off, that's usually what happens in these cad situations. We may not see 32 degrees for at least a week after today.

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The meso models had been delaying the warm up when I checked last night. Looks like we still spike to 50, but probably not until after the rain tapers off, that's usually what happens in these cad situations. We may not see 32 degrees for at least a week after today.

 

I am sitting at 47 F. Checked some of the local reports, seems the lower elevations are still in the 30's.

Mt Holly NWS indicated we get around a inch of snow Tuesday.

Mid week looks cold.

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I am sitting at 47 F. Checked some of the local reports, seems the lower elevations are still in the 30's.

Mt Holly NWS indicated we get around a inch of snow Tuesday.

Mid week looks cold.

Many areas still in the 30s. I'm at 35.3. My friend in WanTage at 900 ft is still at 32.5

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We maxed out at a high of 52F.

Current temp 51F.

 

Mt Holly NWS is looking for outstanding snow ratios with the clipper. 20 to 1 is the call.

Not expecing much up north.

 

AS FAR AS THE CLIPPER GOES, WHILE THE PREDICTED 500MB TROF IS
WEAKER, THE MODELS ON THE 12Z RUN FLIPPED THE PCPN EMPHASIS
FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR CWA. THIS SEEMS TIED TO BETTER MID LEVEL WAA
AND THE LOCATION OF THE JET STREAK ALONG THE PCPN MAX AXIS. LATEST
PMDHMD PREFERENCE IS NON-UKMET WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WE ARE
DISCOUNTING ITS MOST ROBUST QPF OUTPUT. WE ARE CLOSEST TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT EASY
FOR THE SNOW TO STICK, HIGHER RATIOS ARE STILL A FUNCTIONALITY OF
OMEGA AND SNOW GROWTH AREAS COINCIDING TO GET CLOSER OR EXCEED 20:1
RATIOS. WE ARE NOT FINDING ANY OF OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS FOR
NOW. WE ALSO ARE NOT SEEING A DECREASE OF THETA E WITH HEIGHT AND
SO FAR THE PREDICTED FGEN IS LOOKING RATHER ORDINARY. FOR THIS
PACKAGE WE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND KEPT THE NORTH
CLOSE TO THE SAME, A RATHER RUN OF THE MILL (OPEN MOUTH, INSERT
FOOT) 1 TO 3 INCH CLIPPER FORECAST FROM AROUND THE MASON-DIXON
LINE EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD

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Took all day, but I finally spiked to near 50 a little while ago, temps starting to drop back down now. Spent the day working on my rink, it's filling as I type (going on 9 hours now, thank goodness my water is cheap!). Hope to be skating by Wednesday or Thursday.

 

Not expecting much from the clipper. I think the bigger story this week is the cold. 

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NWS Albany:

 

EITHER WAY...THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WINTER WILL POUR IN BEHIND
THE COLD...AS THE AIR...TAPPED STRAIGHT FROM NORTHERN CANADA...WILL
DRIVE H850 TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -25C AND -30C OVER OUR REGION.
BTW...THE LAST TIME H850 TEMPERATURES WERE MEASURED AT -30C AT
ALBANY WAS JAN 16 2004. THEY COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO THESE VALUES ON
THURSDAY MORNING!

 

...

 

AGAIN...THE BIG NEWS WILL BE BRUTAL COLD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET TO
NEAR ZERO IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY...ZERO TO 10 BELOW
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AND AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS ARE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN ONE FACTORS
IN A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10-15 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DRIVEN
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVEL AS LOW AS -25 TO -40 DEGREES!!! WIND CHILL
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO
COVER THIS DANGEROUS COLD.

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Took all day, but I finally spiked to near 50 a little while ago, temps starting to drop back down now. Spent the day working on my rink, it's filling as I type (going on 9 hours now, thank goodness my water is cheap!). Hope to be skating by Wednesday or Thursday.

Not expecting much from the clipper. I think the bigger story this week is the cold.

I spiked to 47 around 11pm, aside from piles, the snow is gone. Down to 34 now.  Good luck with the rink!

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Definitely looks to get a bit brisk this week, though I'll admit I'm not a huge fan of these CAA-driven arctic blasts; if models are overestimating the cold aloft by a couple degrees, our overnight lows turn pedestrian real fast. I'll take a calm, clear, snow-adorned radiational cooling night over -3SD 850 mb temps any day.

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Definitely looks to get a bit brisk this week, though I'll admit I'm not a huge fan of these CAA-driven arctic blasts; if models are overestimating the cold aloft by a couple degrees, our overnight lows turn pedestrian real fast. I'll take a calm, clear, snow-adorned radiational cooling night over -3SD 850 mb temps any day.

 

I agree with you but I also can't lie, I like the squally look to the clouds to the north and west and some of which have been dropping the occasional flurry here today.  I'd prefer an actual squall but you gotta take whats thrown at ya. 

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Definitely looks to get a bit brisk this week, though I'll admit I'm not a huge fan of these CAA-driven arctic blasts; if models are overestimating the cold aloft by a couple degrees, our overnight lows turn pedestrian real fast. I'll take a calm, clear, snow-adorned radiational cooling night over -3SD 850 mb temps any day.

 

I'm just happy that it's cold! 40 and cloudy was getting old.

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