Juliancolton Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The rain would likely be over by Christmas morning and the pattern is reloading behind it. Patience. Sometimes instead of looking weeks in advance, I like to live in the now. Regardless of what it means for the storm track in January, a torrent of rain on Christmas Eve is a major bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 lol. Track over Toronto is right where we want it at this stage. AWT It ends up north of Lake Surperior after tracking over Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Since when does nyc average 30 inches a year ? U also have to out in other factors as well. Temps , snow holding power ect He thinks that last 15 years are the new normal. Every pattern breaks eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 He thinks that last 15 years are the new normal. Every pattern breaks eventually. Well that's fine but doesn't he realize our totals are Higher as well in that stretch ? it just didnt snow more in the city lol My avg long term here is about 40. During this stretch of winters it's probably in the upper 40s to maybe even 50 By the way my avg for the last 7 years at my current location is just under 48(just went back and checked all my totals) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well that's fine but doesn't he realize our totals are Higher as well in that stretch ? it just didnt snow more in the city lol My avg long term here is about 40. During this stretch of winters it's probably in the upper 40s to maybe even 50 By the way my avg for the last 7 years at my current location is just under 48(just went back and checked all my totals) Thats what I was saying the whole time lol.. It just wasn't snowier for NYC. Im running about 5-7" above normal for the past 12 yrs. It doesn't mean its my new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Albany's take on the Grinch storm... THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAINWEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREATAPPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OFSNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS. Pretty bold stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol. Track over Toronto is right where we want it at this stage. AWTWe toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lol. Track over Toronto is right where we want it at this stage. AWT They always come east in the last 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 They always come east in the last 24-48 hours. Don't worry it will make its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 He thinks that last 15 years are the new normal. Every pattern breaks eventually. Last decade & two fifths ridiculously anomalously snowy for NYC, Philly, & Long Island...and unusually snowy in Boston. Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2013-14 (Last 14 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 679.8 inches / average 48.56 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 596.1 inches / average 42.58 inches New York City / Central Park: 467.5 inches / average 33.39 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 389.9 inches / average 27.85 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 292.0 inches / average 20.86 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 214.7 inches / average 15.34 inches <Exits as quietly as she entered> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Don't worry it will make its own cold airAMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Last decade & two fifths ridiculously anomalously snowy for NYC, Philly, & Long Island...and unusually snowy in Boston. Total Snowfall 2000-01 through 2013-14 (Last 14 Years) Boston / Logan Airport: 679.8 inches / average 48.56 inches Brookhaven Lab, L.I. / Upton: 596.1 inches / average 42.58 inches New York City / Central Park: 467.5 inches / average 33.39 inches Philadelphia / International Airport: 389.9 inches / average 27.85 inches Baltimore / BWI Airport: 292.0 inches / average 20.86 inches Washington / Reagan Airport: 214.7 inches / average 15.34 inches <Exits as quietly as she entered> But U missed the point . If it was snowier in NYC it was snowier nw as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 But U missed the point . If it was snowier in NYC it was snowier nw as well lol.. Seems to be the common theme down there this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 But U missed the point . If it was snowier in NYC it was snowier nw as well Just out of curiosity...did I say somewhere that it was not snowier N&W of NYC as well? I posted the chart for informational purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Just out of curiosity...did I say somewhere that it was not snowier N&W of NYC as well? I posted the chart for informational purposes. You also need to bear in mind that there are not that many first order weather stations in the hills of New Jersey...there are many cooperatives...and we can certainly double check their records to determine the approximate positive anomaly in snow during the span in question. I often consider Avoca / Scranton one of the better first order stations N&W of NYC....they generally had a mean annual snowfall in the 50 inch range prior to the new century...but I would wager that their mean from 2001-2014 was a good deal closer to the long term average than NYC's was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 You also need to bear in mind that there are not that many first order weather stations in the hills of New Jersey...there are many cooperatives...and we can certainly double check their records to determine the approximate positive anomaly in snow during the span in question. I often consider Avoca / Scranton one of the better first order stations N&W of NYC....they generally had a mean annual snowfall in the 50 inch range prior to the new century...but I would wager that their mean from 2001-2014 was a good deal closer to the long term average than NYC's was.I don't need a first order station I've kept my own records and vs long term average I'm about 8 inches above norm for the last 8 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't need a first order station I've kept my own records and vs long term average I'm about 8 inches above norm for the last 8 years Is there a station in Butler that affords you the opportunity to make the comparison of the recent past vs the distant past? There is the Charlotteburg Reservoir...perched at about 760 feet...with a long term mean in the 42 inch range...thus you would need to be in the 50 inch range the last 8 years...assuming a similar altitude...of course, you could potentially pro rate it for elevation...around these parts...I would probably add one inch of snowfall per average year for about every 75 foot increase in elevation; give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The ridiculous looking map with the very tight gradient is absolutely spot-on, at least from Warren through Sussex Counties. Between Animal and I he has recorded very different amounts than I have during the same storm, and we are in the same town...what's a thousand feet among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Is there a station in Butler that affords you the opportunity to make the comparison of the recent past vs the distant past? There is the Charlotteburg Reservoir...perched at about 760 feet...with a long term mean in the 42 inch range...thus you would need to be in the 50 inch range the last 8 years...assuming a similar altitude...of course, you could potentially pro rate it for elevation...around these parts...I would probably add one inch of snowfall per average year for about every 75 foot increase in elevation; give or take. I've lived in my town for all my life . Elevation of my town ranges from 360-660( and it's a small town of only 2 square miles ) no first order station in butler and used charlottes burg has a reference though some of there data is missing . My avg for the last 7 years is about 48 . As the crow flies charlotaberg is very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I've lived in my town for all my life . Elevation of my town ranges from 360-660( and it's a small town of only 2 square miles ) no first order station in butler and used charlottes burg has a reference though some of there data is missing . My avg for the last 7 years is about 48 . As the crow flies charlotaberg is very close Yeah...the Reservoir is just up the road a piece...I love to take 23 up to High Point during the winter months...amazingly scenic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't need a first order station I've kept my own records and vs long term average I'm about 8 inches above norm for the last 8 years Sounds about right since I'm about 5-7" above norm for the past 12 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah...the Reservoir is just up the road a piece...I love to take 23 up to High Point during the winter months...amazingly scenic. Another area that's very scenic is wanaque reservoir/ monksville reservoir area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Good day weather fans, Current temp 24 F Cloudy with a few snow flurries in the air. Looks and feels like snow today Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Yeah...the Reservoir is just up the road a piece...I love to take 23 up to High Point during the winter months...amazingly scenic. Veer off rt 23 on canestar road or Rt 515 and pull into Highland Lakes. Talk about scenic...just my personal choice. I have a prime view of the entire valley and the kittatinny ridge line/high point monument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 or 565... though you are twice as high... some of the hilltops here catch the same view. It's amazing that the view *of* high point tower is just as cool as the view *from* Veer off rt 23 on canestar road or Rt 515 and pull into Highland Lakes. Talk about scenic...just my personal choice. I have a prime view of the entire valley and the kittatinny ridge line/high point monument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 or 565... though you are twice as high... some of the hilltops here catch the same view. It's amazing that the view *of* high point tower is just as cool as the view *from* agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It appears as though we may go through this "favorable pattern" for snow through January 1st without any snow whatsoever. A bit of a signal at the end of the month, but a long way to go. I'm wondering if this is going to be one of those winters that always looks great in the future, but the goods never materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 It appears as though we may go through this "favorable pattern" for snow through January 1st without any snow whatsoever. A bit of a signal at the end of the month, but a long way to go. I'm wondering if this is going to be one of those winters that always looks great in the future, but the goods never materialize. No worries bro.winter kicked me in the butt 2nd week of february last year. See my post in the phillly forum. I remain optimistic. Going to hope for the best end of the month. best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It appears as though we may go through this "favorable pattern" for snow through January 1st without any snow whatsoever. A bit of a signal at the end of the month, but a long way to go. I'm wondering if this is going to be one of those winters that always looks great in the future, but the goods never materialize. It is certainly easy to think that way given the December we are having but there is a lot of winter left, so I think we will end up doing fine. It certainly is quiet in the NYC sub-forum though.. It makes me feel a little nervous that it is so quiet, like everybody has given up or perhaps left to post elsewhere after all the recent issues.. It is Christmas, so people have probably got better things to do than sit on here I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It appears as though we may go through this "favorable pattern" for snow through January 1st without any snow whatsoever. A bit of a signal at the end of the month, but a long way to go. I'm wondering if this is going to be one of those winters that always looks great in the future, but the goods never materialize. yea rising confidence that that period is going to show no snow lol. this is exactly why i dont understand why people predict such garbage. nobody has a clue, its all a guessing game. u can show all the fancy charts and maps u want but they mean **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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