Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ill believe it when I see it.. As of now coastal hugger it is lol.. Hah, agreed. I don't want to see anybody get the shaft, but these overarching pattern change forecasts have been dubious at best. It doesn't take much for an I-95 special to become a continental shelf special, anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I don't know how anyone could accuratly predict where the storm track will be in January. The modeling can't even agree 24 hours out. Pattern recognition . It`s really not that hard . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hah, agreed. I don't want to see anybody get the shaft, but these overarching pattern change forecasts have been dubious at best. It doesn't take much for an I-95 special to become a continental shelf special, anyway... If we are talking an all snow event for the immediate coast then we will get fringed. If its sn/ra or all ra for the coast chances are its an all snow event for us. Someone is gonna get the shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Pattern recognition . It`s really not that hard . Just because the overall pattern might favor a more offshore track doesn't mean the storm track will end up that way. Personally I think you're just attempting to troll the interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just because the overall pattern might favor a more offshore track doesn't mean the storm track will end up that way. Personally I think you're just attempting to troll the interior folks. This is what I posted somewhere else and the response was to the point of I hope this keeps up all winter . I like the look of this current system . There are multiple SWs in the flow and the speed between the 2 will determine how much of an easterly flow we can mitigate . However going forward I like where we end up . A neg PNA combined with a neg EPO allows you to run SWs underneath the higher heights in Canada as the Neg EPO makes Canada cold it forces storm tracks to its S . You end up with Arctic waves on the EC , very similar to last Jan and Dec which should favor the coast . ( remember the vortex will pulse and openings develop on the coast ). This is not one and done , it`s the start of a good pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This is what I posted somewhere else and the response was to the point of I hope this keeps up all winter . I like the look of this current system . There are multiple SWs in the flow and the speed between the 2 will determine how much of an easterly flow we can mitigate . However going forward I like where we end up . A neg PNA combined with a neg EPO allows you to run SWs underneath the higher heights in Canada as the Neg EPO makes Canada cold it forces storm tracks to its S . You end up with Arctic waves on the EC , very similar to last Jan and Dec which should favor the coast . ( remember the vortex will pulse and openings develop on the coast ). This is not one and done , it`s the start of a good pattern . We shall see how things playout. I just don't think it's smart to make such definitive statements on December 15th about what the storm track might be like in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This winter has 07/08 written all over it just a little further south with its gradient. The supposed 12/15 pattern change has been pushed back into Jan now. The best way to approach this is to take it day by day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We shall see how things playout. I just don't think it's smart to make such definitive statements on December 15th about what the storm track might be like in January. Why I said back in late Nov that the 1st 15 days of Dec would open colder than normal in the face of everyone thinking a torch was coming . Then said on Dec 9th the pattern changes on the 20th . ( Its all in the dec disco`s to read ) When you turn the EPO and AO neg you get Canada cold . The higher heights allow for the neg PNA systems to cut underneath and SWs get to the EC . If they come out of the NB they are arctic waves . They cant cut so they either go out or up . And since they are arctic waves the further east one goes the snowier the system is . Its really not hard. No one is saying the interior doesn't do well but in that pattern the coast does better once into Jan . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This winter has 07/08 written all over it just a little further south with its gradient. The supposed 12/15 pattern change has been pushed back into Jan now. The best way to approach this is to take it day by day. Lol. 07-08 was a Moderate La Nina. You can't use it as an analog, or you could but would find yourself wondering why the pattern is not matching up to expectations. Maybe you are thinking of 06-07 but there are stark differences between that weak Nino and this year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Lol. 07-08 was a Moderate La Nina. You can't use it as an analog, or you could but would find yourself wondering why the pattern is not matching up to expectations. Maybe you are thinking of 06-07 but there are stark differences between that weak Nino and this year's. I was strictly just comparing how the snowfall gradient had set up early on. Long way to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yanksfan is taking a beating in that main thread lol... 6 days out and that thread is already garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This was a Grinch run of the Euro for our region and much of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yanksfan is taking a beating in that main thread lol... 6 days out and that thread is already garbage IMO, you just have to sit back and watch as people start getting cranky, people get wishful, people start spiking footballs, etc. In the end, Mother Nature is going to do whatever it wants to do and none of us can control it so just enjoy the ride, wherever it takes you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yanksfan is taking a beating in that main thread lol... 6 days out and that thread is already garbage That's what happens when you have a few posters that dislike you. They find any mistake that you might make, big or small, and blow it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's what happens when you have a few posters that dislike you. They find any mistake that you might make, big or small, and blow it up. Don't stress it dude.. You are more than welcome to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Don't stress it dude.. You are more than welcome to post here. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's what happens when you have a few posters that dislike you. They find any mistake that you might make, big or small, and blow it up. It doesn't help that one of the mods seems to criticize you at every opportunity, it just encourages others to do the same IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 One thing I'm grateful for is we have nothing but realist in our sub form and very few weenies. Age may play a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 One thing I'm grateful for is we have nothing but realist in our sub form and very few weenies. Age may play a factor It probably also helps that we average a good deal more snow than most of them. As posted in the main thread, the Euro ensembles look decent. I was looking at the low positions and there is pretty tight clustering just inside or near the BM at 18z on Sunday. One thing about this fall/early winter is that we certainly haven't been short on systems to track. That theme looks to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 One thing about this fall/early winter is that we certainly haven't been short on systems to track. That theme looks to continue. This is a good thing, I saw that the moderate drought area has shrunk a bit, or at least I'm no longer in the moderate area. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'd hate to see a pattern develop where the coast gets clobbered and we inlanders get missed. I hate that! Enough of that! We've had too much of that the last few years. It's our turn now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It doesn't help that one of the mods seems to criticize you at every opportunity, it just encourages others to do the same IMO. Earthlight calls it as it is. He's also quick to post that he agrees with me, when he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Right on cue, the main forum is imploding 5 days before a storm threat. It's like groundhog day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It doesn't look great for inland folks with the 21st system. Probably going to pass too far offshore to get appreciable precip up here where it will be colder. I wouldn't turn my back on the Christmas threat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well, let's look on the bright side here... the average of the OTS frontal wave on Sunday and the 975 mb GL cutter on Christmas would be a pretty decent coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Most of the model runs today, including the ensembles, show at least a bit of accumulating snow with the 21st system in our region. I'm not going to write it off as nothing so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 12z CMC showed a 983 over eastern CT Christmas Eve hour 204...a little warm at the surface but 850s are below freezing. Looks really warm initially with 850 line west of Toronto but somehow the storm still slides nearly straight east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 One thing I'm grateful for is we have nothing but realist in our sub form and very few weenies. Age may play a factor Bingo. to many youngsters who think nyc averages 50 inches of snow every year. Coast has been very spoiled these last 10 or so years. i dont get the beating they gave oldyanks fan guy, he is one of the better posters in those threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Bernie Rayno from accu, who I respect, thinks the storm gets pulled back north once offshore to give us a shot a accum snow or mix. He thinks the upper low in the lakes pulls it towards our region. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/multiple-us-winter-storms-christmas/39058689 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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