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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


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EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NYC AND NW THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI IN THE AFT. WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MAINLY LIGHT PCPN...THIS
SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE INTERIOR WHERE A COUPLE
OF INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY... WESTERN PASSAIC IN NJ...AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD IN
SW CT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT. A NARROW BAND
OF HEAVIER PCPN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS OFTEN HAS A SHORT LEAD TIME.

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The HRRR is lost, it has most of the activity off the NJ coast within an hour

There is a little off the NJ coast forming. Don't know if it will move up in to the NYC metro area later. We'll see.

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html

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Its mostly raining at my locale.  I am directly under the mid-level center so I am guessing that is not really helping my case.   Need the upper low to start to shift east a little.

Here as well. We're well below freezing throughout the column, but cloud tops are low and relatively warm (like -4 to -6C) which is too warm for ice nuclei to activate. Once the 700 mb center and associated tongue of dry air aloft start moving away, we might be able to steal a few flakes. I know, I know... marvelous.

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Here as well. We're well below freezing throughout the column, but cloud tops are low and relatively warm (like -4 to -6C) which is too warm for ice nuclei to activate. Once the 700 mb center and associated tongue of dry air aloft start moving away, we might be able to steal a few flakes. I know, I know... marvelous.

The term "clutching at straws" comes to mind with this event LOL.

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