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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


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How in the world can U still have ice on trees with temp above freezing all day. I'm not saying u are lying but ice melts rather quickly on trees once above 32 and especially since u are way above at. 35

That is what I was wondering.

If you are outside you can hear that crackling noise in the trees. Ice still on deck, driveway, grass is frozen too with ice.

Spare car was still coated in ice that was outside.

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You think we will get snow accums tomorrow?

 

I wouldn't be surprised with some in the hills, but I think any snow in the valley would not be enough to accumulate. Tomorrow night into Thursday may be the period, if any, that we get an inch or possibly two. But as sny said, fickle setup and it will probably come down to nowcasting. 

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How in the world can U still have ice on trees with temp above freezing all day. I'm not saying u are lying but ice melts rather quickly on trees once above 32 and especially since u are way above at. 35

I got home in Harriman just before dark and all the trees were cased in ice as well as my deck and to some et_ent my driveway. It was 33 degrees.
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From FB..

 

US National Weather Service Binghamton NY

 

The snowstorm is NOT over yet. The initial shot of heavy snow that we anticipated earlier today developed farther north and east of central NY and northeast PA and hence snow lovers are disappointed and many are questioning the forecasts, w...hich is expected. But looking at the 2 images below, there is an upper level low developing over the Carolinas this evening. This upper level low will move north up the coast and re-energize the snowstorm and finally bring heavier snows to central NY and much of northeast PA later tonight, Wednesday and Wednesday night. So we urge folks to be prepared and not write this storm off just yet. See images below.

post-436-0-13690500-1418179221_thumb.jpg

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fwiw 0z rgem looks ok for areas north of the NY/NJ border. Gives us an extended period of lgt/mod snow starting in the morning.. Maybe 1-3, 2-4" event

OKX thoughts

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

811 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY

STATIONARY TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH

FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

LOW PRESSURE...JUST E OF MONTAUK EARLY THIS EVE...WILL REMAIN

NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DRYING UP OVER THE AREA AND THINK IT WILL

REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW LATE

TONIGHT. HAVE DECREASED POPS DOWN TO LOW CHC/SCHC RANGE UNTIL THEN

AND THEN RAMP THEM BACK UP TO LIKELY/CAT AROUND 9Z. ACTIVITY IS

POINTING TOWARDS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE

AREA SO THESE LOCATIONS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.

IN TERMS OF WINTRY PRECIP...LATEST HRRR/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE

THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT FOR COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR

A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW. BUT EVEN THEN BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A

BIT WARM. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS...DUE TO

DYNAMIC COOLING POTENTIAL UNDER UPPER LOW AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATION

BANDING. THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY IS LESS THAN AN INCH OF WET

SNOW ACCUM OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW END POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES.

WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THIS

UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL BE WATCHED.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED WITH LLJ WEAKENING SO WIND ADVSY WAS

CANCELLED. FLOOD WATCH ALSO CANCELLED WITH HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THE

REGION. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT HAS COME TO AN

END. SEE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOOD SECTIONS FOR LOCALIZED MINOR

THREAT WITH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS INTO SE NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

NIGHT...WITH UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER THE STACKING LOW WILL

RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BANDS

OF PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS ECMWF/GFS THERMO PROFILES...WHICH

SUPPORT CONTINUED COLUMN COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW AND

UNDER UPPER LOW DURING THE DAY WED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE

CWA. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP FROM RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW THROUGH

THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT. 2 TO 4

INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS

NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR LATE SECOND PERIOD/THIRD

PERIOD EVENT.

TRANSITION CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE SLOWER...BUT EVEN THE

COAST COULD SE A DUSTING OF SNOW WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDY...BREEEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH

THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE. LOWS

WED NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

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NWS..NY metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support:

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: rain could mix with or change to snow sooner
than forecast Wednesday afternoon.

Klga fcster comments: rain could mix with or change to snow sooner
than forecast Wednesday afternoon.

Kewr fcster comments: rain could mix with or change to snow sooner
than forecast Wednesday afternoon.

Kteb fcster comments: rain could mix with or change to snow sooner
than forecast Wednesday afternoon.

Khpn fcster comments: rain could mix with or change to snow sooner
than forecast Wednesday morning.

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The 4km NAM and the HRRR (though not necessarily in it's range) show some accumulating snow developing across the morning/early afternoon as well. Maybe we'll have some positive busts for some of you guys to help even things out a little!

 

fwiw 0z rgem looks ok for areas north of the NY/NJ border. Gives us an extended period of lgt/mod snow starting in the morning.. Maybe 1-3, 2-4" event

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Albany:

 

THE 03Z 3KM HRRR AND OUR HIRES WRF...ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40...ALL SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NEARBY LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND
THE DEEPER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO TWIRL INTO OUR REGION AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTHERN/WESTERN
AREAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. PTYPE IS STARTING TO TREND MORE
TOWARDS SNOW...BUT IN AREAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING...SOME RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT SOME SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM NOSE. HOWEVER...THIS WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS THE COLD AIR
STARTS TO DEEPEN OVERHEAD.

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Apparently there is going to be some sort of upper level low that moves through the area.

In the past I have seen some epic snow bands form in small areas over the years with these set ups.

Remember that big noreaster that we had yesterday? The left over mid-level centers are nearbye. That's our source of lift.

 

You can see the 700mb frontogenisis fairly close to where the strongest bands are currently forming.

 

7fnt_sf.gif?1418218645990

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Let's see what Rd 2 can do today if anyhting.

Mt Holly NWS & Upton NWS seem to feel that 1-3 inches is possible in certain areas.

I counted 17 flakes just now, the most I've seen so far...I'm hoping for at least some mood flakes this afternoon into the evening. If anything begins to stick after dark I'll consider that a bonus.
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Let's see what Rd 2 can do today if anyhting.

Mt Holly NWS & Upton NWS seem to feel that 1-3 inches is possible in certain areas.

 

The short term models have precip filling in over the next 2-3 hours and persisting off and on throughout the day, looks like a coating to 2" or 1-3" type deal for most of us. The 6z RGEM develops a bit heavier batch of snow later this evening and gives many of us a bit more. At the least, should be fun to see what happens today.

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