snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 What makes me chuckle too that in light of the fact of what has happened thus far with this storm there are people are trying to analyze the weather for Christmas week We have guidance that cannot even get a storm correct DURING the storm itself lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I am thinking a vast majority in our area, miss most of that banding once the deform band sets up tonight. The temperatures wont even be the issue for us far nw folks. It's the fact of where the low placement will be and where the axis sets up. Since last night's runs, models have trended a bit faster, and much further N.E with this setup. Placing the banding to our north and far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I am thinking a vast majority in our area, miss most of that banding once the deform band sets up tonight. The temperatures wont even be the issue for us far nw folks. It's the fact of where the low placement will be and where the axis sets up. Since last night's runs, models have trended a bit faster, and much further N.E with this setup. Placing the banding to our north and far nw. Well considering 99% of guidance had most banding to our NW this may bode well for the HV.. Time will tell I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It's still a kick in the balls. I had high hopes that my area would still make out well, I felt I was just far enough west to get into that deformation banding overnight into tomorrow. It sucks to go from a winter storm warning for 6-12, to possibly an inch or two. However, vast majority of models were far to erratic with this setup. It was hard to put stock into anything, it was a high bust potential event from the start, and far too warm to boot. I saw the writing on the wall for my area 2 days ago. Not sure why the euro was so insistent on significant snow across the region for the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Just saw this posted on FB .. what I would give for that to be a bit more to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Just saw this posted on FB .. what I would give for that to be a bit more to the right. Sounds like they are hinting it sets up further to their east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sounds like they are hinting it sets up further to their east.. They could be since the low is a little further east than it was forecasted. Vis loop http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Here is a section of Upton's AFD, AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 126 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE NJ COAST WILL TRACK NORTH TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF SPOTS STILL HOLDING ONTO FREEZING TEMPS. ANY ICING FROM THIS POINT ON WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND GRADUALLY SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN ALOFT. OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF SOUTH NJ COAST...AND ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT QUICKLY APPROACHING CENTRAL/EASTERN LI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EXPECTATION THAT RAIN WILL SHUT OFF BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z THERE...AND BY 20-21Z ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CT. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON HYDRO HAZARDS AND IMPACTS. A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE EVEN EXPECTED AS SEEN ON SATELLITE. POTENTIAL FOR US TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY AS THIS DRY SLOT MOVES IN WITH BETTER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STEEPENED LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED 50 KT/58 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LI AND COASTAL CT...BUT WIND ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. LLJ PIVOTS OVER THE NYC METRO INTO SW CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING A BIT THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH THROUGH AROUND 00Z FOR NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF THIS AREA. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM HERE ON OUT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE INTERIOR...TO NEAR 50 ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE STRONG COASTAL LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND LI THIS EVENING INTO WED...WITH THE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED AND STACKED ON WED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PCPN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THU. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A TRANSITION OVER TO A SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY....SPECIFICALLY WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK WARM ENOUGH ON WED FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN OR A MIX NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. ELSEWHERE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW WED NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER WITH ITS THERMO PROFILES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS APPEARS TO MORE OF BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUE THAN ANYTHING. THERE IS ALWAYS A CAVEAT AND THAT IS BEING UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND VERTICAL COOLING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. INSTABILITY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THU WITH AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. STAYED BELOW MOS GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Reduced from a warning to an advisory now. Still going with 4-8 inches here, we will see. Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY237 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014NYZ062-PAZ043-044-047-048-072-101945-/O.CAN.KBGM.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-141211T1200Z//O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0014.141209T1937Z-141211T1200Z/SULLIVAN-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE237 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY......WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN, SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS INEFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEENCANCELLED.* LOCATIONS...POCONOS...WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA VALLEYS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK.* HAZARDS...WINTRY MIX AND SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TODAY FROM LIGHT ICE, ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS THIS EVENING FROM SNOW. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL [email protected].&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Binghamton has Sullivan County in a Winter Weather Advisory now (the Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled). Winter Weather Advisory Statement as of 2:37 PM EST on December 09, 2014 ...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 7 am EST Thursday... ...Winter Storm Warning is cancelled... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain, snow and sleet...which is in effect until 7 am EST Thursday. The Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled. * Locations...Poconos...Wyoming and Lackawanna valleys in northeast Pennsylvania and Sullivan County New York. * Hazards...wintry mix and snow. * Accumulations...4 to 8 inches of snow with the highest accumulations in the higher terrain. Ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch of ice mainly over the highest elevations. * Timing...a light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will continue into this evening. Precipitation will transition to snow tonight and persist through early Thursday morning. * Temperatures...around 30 tonight and tomorrow dropping into the mid 20s Wednesday night. * Winds...northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Impacts...hazardous travel today from light ice, especially higher elevations. Travel will become dangerous this evening from snow. Slippery travel can be expected through early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Radar is actually looking fairly well, precip is blossoming from Central Ny down through Eastern half of Pa. Rain already changing to snow and dropping through the Catskills, and portions of Extreme Nepa along the Northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well considering 99% of guidance had most banding to our NW this may bode well for the HV.. Time will tell I guess Yes, but placement of the deform band was quite erratic from run to run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yes, but placement of the deform band was quite erratic from run to run lol. Yeah I don't think any model has done well with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yeah I don't think any model has done well with this event There was zero consistency, one of the worst modeled in a long time. However, this had high bust potential from the word go. It can still go either way. These setup are notorious to wreak havoc on models. This was one of those, use your experience and gut instinct and take a risk when forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Neg NAO warned everyone. He was ignored. Many thought if this stalled it would collapse over ur area It's not Gona happen to the tune of 4 to 8 . That happens. Welcome to the coasts agony as ****e happens with complex winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Neg NAO warned everyone. He was ignored. Many thought if this stalled it would collapse over ur area It's not Gona happen to the tune of 4 to 8 . That happens. Welcome to the coasts agony as ****e happens with complex winter storms. Wow someone is bitter because they didn't get any snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wow someone is bitter because they didn't get any snow... Saying the LHV is not going to get 4 to 8 with backlash squalls makes one bitter is just silly. Looks like 2 to 4 for most of the area on the back end. Was the point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Fun storm Mt Holly NWS inidcates in their AFD the storm is over, but there may be some patchy lite precip over night into tomorrow. Still keeping out hope we get the "back end snows or CCB band" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Fun storm Mt Holly NWS inidcates in their AFD the storm is over, but there may be some patchy lite precip over night into tomorrow. Still keeping out hope we get the "back end snows or CCB band" The latest radar doesn't look half bad for the far interior, especially once you get into NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If we can't cool the boundary layer the storm is over for everyone. That was the killer for most even up toward the adirondacks. Its amazing cause the temps continue to rise here lol. Up to 38 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Temp rising here also. Currently at high for today. 34.5 Not a good sign if you want to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Upton latest map.. 2-4" for many up here Only exception looks to be the low-lying areas where 1-2" fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Upton: Tonight: IN TERMS OF WINTRY PRECIP...LATEST HRRR/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THATIT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT FOR COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR ACHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW. BUT EVEN THEN BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BITWARM. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS...DUE TODYNAMIC COOLING POTENTIAL UNDER UPPER LOW AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATIONBANDING. THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY IS LESS THAN AN INCH OF WET SNOWACCUM OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW END POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES. WILLHOLD OFF ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BUTWILL BE WATCHED. Tomorrow: COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER THE STACKING LOW WILLRESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BANDSOF PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WED THROUGH WED NIGHT.HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS ECMWF/GFS THERMO PROFILES...WHICHSUPPORT CONTINUED COLUMN COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW ANDUNDER UPPER LOW DURING THE DAY WED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THECWA. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP FROM RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW THROUGHTHE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT. 2 TO 4INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR LATE SECOND PERIOD/THIRDPERIOD EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Upton latest map.. 2-4" for many up here Only exception looks to be the low-lying areas where 1-2" fall. I think that map is ambitious but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Albany has changed over to heavy snow with dynamical cooling, even some reports of thunder snow up there. Nothing like that for us, but the short term models do show a bit of a changeover to light snow showers as the night progresses. Just a miserable day all around out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Good day all, Current temp is 35 F with mist & heavy fog. We are still caked in ice at my home. I was impressed when I got home with the ice coverage. Nothing seemed to have melted today. According to my wife we have a few large parts of trees that crashed down into yard. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Starting to ice up here by the storm king mountain.. Really hope that band pushes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Albany has changed over to heavy snow with dynamical cooling, even some reports of thunder snow up there. Nothing like that for us, but the short term models do show a bit of a changeover to light snow showers as the night progresses. Just a miserable day all around out there today. You think we will get snow accums tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Temps finally starting to drop.. 36.3f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Good day all, Current temp is 35 F with mist & heavy fog. We are still caked in ice at my home. I was impressed when I got home with the ice coverage. Nothing seemed to have melted today. According to my wife we have a few large parts of trees that crashed down into yard. Best. How in the world can U still have ice on trees with temp above freezing all day. I'm not saying u are lying but ice melts rather quickly on trees once above 32 and especially since u are way above at. 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 You think we will get snow accums tomorrow? I honestly think no one knows whats gonna happen tonight or tomorrow lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.