Guest Patrick Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hi Matt, I'm not buying it... Not at all. You and I both know that this setup and progression means big snows for our areas.. You probably a little more than me. The forecast is undoubtedly tough, but I think you would agree we are in for a plastering. If not, then sorry to have put words in your mouth, but it looks like the coast is toast and we get dumped on. Mt Holly NWS seems unimpressed with snow for my area. WWA for snow, sleet and freezing rain tonight into tomorrow. Little accumulaton for the entire storm through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hi Matt, I'm not buying it... Not at all. You and I both know that this setup and progression means big snows for our areas.. You probably a little more than me. The forecast is undoubtedly tough, but I think you would agree we are in for a plastering. If not, then sorry to have put words in your mouth, but it looks like the coast is toast and we get dumped on. Still sitting 20 f. I expect around 6 inches on the back end if all works out. Big question is the 1st rd. maybe and inch or two of snow and sleet over to freezing rain. I am wondering if the cold air can hang on for an extended time and we get minimal plain rain prior to going back to snow. Will be an interesting storm to track ops. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm thinking the same thing... i don't see heavy rain up here tomorrow.. i just don't. either way it's going to make for one disaster of a rush hour! be safe Still sitting 20 f.I expect around 6 inches on the back end if all works out.Big question is the 1st rd. maybe and inch or two of snow and sleet over to freezing rain.I am wondering if the cold air can hang on for an extended time and we get minimal plain rain prior to going back to snow.Will be an interesting storm to track ops.Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm thinking the same thing... i don't see heavy rain up here tomorrow.. i just don't. either way it's going to make for one disaster of a rush hour! be safe Hi Matt, I'm not buying it... Not at all. You and I both know that this setup and progression means big snows for our areas.. You probably a little more than me. The forecast is undoubtedly tough, but I think you would agree we are in for a plastering. If not, then sorry to have put words in your mouth, but it looks like the coast is toast and we get dumped on. this really isnt a great setup for u either, problem is not surface cold its the upper layers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 right - i don't really care about surface temps.... just see frozen as more likely than liquid especially if it ends up a stronger low tracking to our SE in mid december. the surface can torch in 3 minutes and that would be great news! as it is worried about light icing in the valleys tomorrow, and possibly sleet/snow tomorrow night. I'd rather be 50 miles north praying for all snow. this really isnt a great setup for u either, problem is not surface cold its the upper layers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Im back after last March! Howz it going everyone? Had a nice summer? Hoping thermal profiles are colder than progged for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 0 z nam looked not so great to my eyes. Anyone else can confirm if I am wrong or correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 on the bright side, i don't think we would have to deal with icing.... talk about a dry slot.... 0 z nam looked not so great to my eyes.Anyone else can confirm if I am wrong or correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 on the bright side, i don't think we would have to deal with icing.... talk about a dry slot.... Temp has climbed to 26 f at my house. Race between precip and warm air. Hopefully the nam is wrong.....no real back end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Maybe I am a little jaded. But the nam model run to run changes are why I hate looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The Euro appears to be the only model that gives any appreciable widespread snowfall to the area. Every other model has little to no snow except for the far western portions of our region (and the highest of elevations). The 00z 4km NAM does have a weenie band of heavy snow that develops over NWNJ and slides northeast through the Hudson Valley and provides a few inches from hour 45-54, but that's way out there and it doesn't show up on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 The Euro appears to be the only model that gives any appreciable widespread snowfall to the area. Every other model has little to no snow except for the far western portions of our region (and the highest of elevations). The 00z 4km NAM does have a weenie band of heavy snow that develops over NWNJ and slides northeast through the Hudson Valley and provides a few inches from hour 45-54, but that's way out there and it doesn't show up on the NAM. Yea, we will just need to watch the event unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 We had a good snow at T Day. I can wait a bit longer for the next one if nothing happens this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 up to 30.4. by the temp rising trend i will prob be above freezing by the time the precip arrives. isnt that a kick in the ass lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 up to 30.4. by the temp rising trend i will prob be above freezing by the time the precip arrives. isnt that a kick in the ass lol I am upto 27 currently. Hopefully the rain is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Rgem looks decent for backend snows... Bottom line is the further west one is the better chance you have of seeing snow. I'm still loving MSV area as jackpot.. Might have to take the 20 min weenie drive to my west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Too far east and low elevation here in POU for anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Too far east and low elevation here in POU for anything decent. Im kinda in the same boat here in Kingston...just hoping to stay below freezing at night and maybe the precip will move in faster than previously expected. One storm that comes to mind is Dec 9 2009 where all the models had the 850 line well north but many parts of Dutchess and Ulster still ended up with over 8". Hoping for a surprise like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 29 here, only 3 more degrees and thats probably it as far as accumulating snow chances. Back on Dec 9 2009 it was obvious that it was going to snow a lot with temps in the mid 20s, not really feeling that now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Rgem looks decent for backend snows... Bottom line is the further west one is the better chance you have of seeing snow. I'm still loving MSV area as jackpot.. Might have to take the 20 min weenie drive to my west lol I think you'll have to go further north for the bullseye. The localized forecast amounts seem to point to Hunter Mountain as the jackpot. Of course elevation plays into that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 27/25 I'm pretty excited to see how this one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 DT Final call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 DT Final call.. Looks pretty good...with the 6z NAM trying to cancel the snowstorm Id take 2-4" and run...although Ive got a feeling it will be a little higher than that. 29/24 here...holding the cold air pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wonder whats up with the NAM warming it up so fast, has much of Dutchess County above freezing by 9z which is not gonna be the case since thats only in about an hour. Possibly underestimating the cold air damming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 30.6 and ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 terrible outside with ice. From the local police Vernon Police25 minutes ago Attention Residents in Highland Lakes/Barry Lakes/Cliffwood Lakes: The roadways on the mountain are extremely icy. There is multiple cars stuck on Canistear Road. Breakneck Road and Route 638 are also extremely icy. All Road Departments are out, salting and sanding the roadways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Heavy freezing rain and sleet right now. Just saw that Vernon police fb update... Thanks Matt Be safe Pat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Skating rink outside, 30 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 32 here in Monroe- icy roads. Just came from Suffern where it was 35 and pouring. Miserable out there! It's too bad last Sat and today has been all rain- would have been buried had it been snow. But winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 2 hour school delay for my kids here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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