West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 My concern is the euro pulled the same stunt the other night and changed again during the afternoon run.I was not really to impressed with 12 Z gfs in my back yard. Looks like a few inches may be possible on the back end. Going to hope for strong dynamics and my elevation to pull out a decent event. Still expect decent rains. Not sure what occurs very late tonight into tomorrow morning. I told you the GFS would slowly correct west every run. It should be done by 00z run. Euro is king in these situations but that being said, having a storm coming west of north is a challenge for the models to figure out exactly how far back it comes before it bends back out. 25 or 50 miles further east means all the difference in the world at this point or you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow it's cold out there. 22.4f w/ occasional flurries Not that it means much but the 12z nam was close to an all out snowstorm for western sections of the area. RGEM also cooled quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro JP from Vernon NJ through Hewitt and towards Warwick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro JP from Vernon NJ through Hewitt and towards Warwick. What does that impy. That is my area. Any further details. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Get ready boys.. Plenty of surprises in store for us up here. Should be fun to track regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Get ready boys.. Plenty of surprises in store for us up here. Should be fun to track regardless Really? I need to know right now whats going to happen IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 That is some EURO map...lol. Draw a line up from Warwick due north and you have the heaviest axis. 9 inches over Warwick village.....8-9 inches up to the warwick/chester/monroe border......7-8 inches from Monroe, Chester Goshen..towards Middletown....9 inches as you approach the northern OC border just west of the thruway and 7 inches from Middletown to Jervis along 84.....amounts increase on 17 west of Middletown up to 9 or 10 inches as you cross into Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The thruway is the battle zone as the Bear mountain Bridge is only around 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The thruway is the battle zone as the Bear mountain Bridge is only around 2 inches How did areas a little further north such as New Paltz-Poughkeepsie do? I work in New Paltz at 1200', so I'm a little concerned about the commute there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm kind of hoping for a mesolow to form within the occluded cyclonic envelope, maybe along a thermal gradient somewhere... kind of like what happened back in February. Just something to force some ascent after the main push of sloppy precip is through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 How did areas a little further north such as New Paltz-Poughkeepsie do? I work in New Paltz at 1200', so I'm a little concerned about the commute there. The river at POU is the battle zone....6 at the bridge....8-9 at NP.....as you head east thru POU it drops off like an inch a mile...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The river at POU is the battle zone....6 at the bridge....8-9 at NP.....as you head east thru POU it drops off like an inch a mile...lol Thanks...that's quite a gradient. Been seeing that in the area around POU for a few runs now. Would be like a half foot at the MetroNorth with nothing at Vassar, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Get ready boys.. Plenty of surprises in store for us up here. Should be fun to track regardlessAgree. I enjoy these types of storms.Wondering how mt holly nws handles the forecast in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Thanks...that's quite a gradient. Been seeing that in the area around POU for a few runs now. Would be like a half foot at the MetroNorth with nothing at Vassar, haha. Not quite that tight but probably by the time you got out around the Taconic pkwy and rt 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Now a Winter Storm Warning for Sullivan County (NY) - Winter Storm Warning Statement as of 2:49 PM EST on December 08, 2014 ...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 4 am Tuesday to 7 am EST Thursday... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow, sleet and freezing rain...which is in effect from 4 am Tuesday to 7 am EST Thursday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * Locations...Poconos, Wyoming and Lackawanna valleys in northeast Pennsylvania and Sullivan County New York. * Hazards...freezing rain and sleet will move in before daybreak then become snow late in the afternoon and continuing heavy at time on Tuesday night. Steady snow will continue through Thursday morning. * Accumulations...8 to 12 inches of snow, with lower amounts in the valleys and higher accumulations in the higher terrain. A tenth to one quarter of an inch of ice in the higher elevations. * Timing...freezing rain and sleet will move in before daybreak. Becoming snow late Tuesday afternoon and continuing overnight on Tuesday, heavy at times. Steady snow will continue into Thursday morning. * Temperatures...in the lower 30s. * Winds...northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Impacts...freezing rain and sleet during the day on Tuesday will result in hazardous travel. Travel will become dangerous during the overnight hours in heavy snow. Slippery travel can be expected through Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The EURO sees a down sloping snow hole in Sullivan along the Delaware going up towards Narrowsburg. It's 2-6 inches in the SW part of the county to about 16 inches in the NE section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 18 Z Nam was a home run for the interiror folks NW.(considering what it could have done). Are we in the NAM's range yet. really hate the model. Current temp 20 F. Suspect we get a decent mixed bag in rd.1 of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 CCB overhead at hour 33 on the 18z NAM... soundings suggest ripping snow west of the river and sleet for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 CCB overhead at hour 33 on the 18z NAM... soundings suggest ripping snow west of the river and sleet for me. overheard an extended time for NW areas. really wondering if we get any plain rain off this NAM run at all.. NAM has blown so many forecast over the years for me, I just can't bite it. Have read numerous times that it does well with temp profiles etc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 overheard an extended time for NW areas. really wondering if we get any plain rain off this NAM run at all.. NAM has blown so many forecast over the years for me, I just can't bite it. Have read numerous times that it does well with temp profiles etc . Around 6 inches for you by 7pm tomorrow....then we either lull or transition for awhile. I'm waiting on round 2 to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 By 4am we are snowing again.......a tiny dot of 7 inches around your house as jackpot in the area ...so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 7am ...Around 8 inches by Animal....6 in Warwick and a finger of 5 up to SWF. Western OC getting skunked so far with PJ next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 1pm.......Same,,,,Walden, PJ and POU less than 2 inches up to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Tick...Tock 4pm...Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 7pm.....Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NAM says......that is it, goodnight sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 And in other happy news.....Upton has removed all snow accumulation from it's grid map. Enjoy your ice with your egg nog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Mt Holly NWS seems unimpressed with snow for my area. WWA for snow, sleet and freezing rain tonight into tomorrow. Little accumulaton for the entire storm through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 NAM says......that is it, goodnight sir! I gave up on this one as a snow threat for my area two days ago. I'll be in Kingston the next couple days, I might take a little ride up to the Catskills if I get a chance. Still itching to try my new vehicle in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I know the 18z NAM is often as useless as you know what on a bull, but the lack of precip once you go west of the Delaware as compared to other modelling throwing back big snows well into the Poconos, tells you this complex setup will wind up a nowcast deal .The truth may not be correctly modeled until we are well into the storm. Lean on Euro if anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.