rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Latest thoughts from bgm.. no way am i seeing 4plus. what to hell are they going by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Tonylovesrain drew that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Tonylovesrain drew that mapHe is working on his new flash flood map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 0z nam was a big improvement over 18z.. Banding overhead too can do wonders. Time will tell I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 0z nam was a big improvement over 18z.. Banding overhead too can do wonders. Time will tell I guess The 18z NAM had all liquid QPF for KSWF thru the 84 hour run. So anything frozen would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 0z nam was a big improvement over 18z.. Banding overhead too can do wonders. Time will tell I guess 100 times better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 0 gfs did not look all that geat for winter weather. Hints we may get some snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS looks a bit cooler as well. The low-mid level warmth is rather muted until the 700 mb low gets overhead, at which point many of us would be in or near the dry slot anyway. Things might get sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS looks a bit cooler as well. The low-mid level warmth is rather muted until the 700 mb low gets overhead, at which point many of us would be in or near the dry slot anyway. Things might get sloppy. How was it in comparison to the nam ?? I'm at work right now. Model viewing is limited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 How was it in comparison to the nam ?? I'm at work right now. Model viewing is limited Looks pretty close to NAM in terms of thermal profiles... maybe a tad colder. Surface low is further east, but it doesn't have the same ULL-driven enhancement on the backside. More importantly (IMO, anyway), the Euro is looking quite a bit colder and further east with the first low. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow, I like it. Starts out as rain or freezing rain, then goes over to snow with abundant dynamic cooling (clearly evident on 850 mb temp field). Lower levels go above freezing as the LP aloft passes overhead or just to our southeast, and then more substantial cooling allows light frozen precip to resume Wednesday night. Weenie snow map shows 12-14" for Orange, Sussex, and most of Dutchess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow, I like it. Starts out as rain or freezing rain, then goes over to snow with abundant dynamic cooling (clearly evident on 850 mb temp field). Lower levels go above freezing as the LP aloft passes overhead or just to our southeast, and then more substantial cooling allows light frozen precip to resume Wednesday night. Weenie snow map shows 12-14" for Orange, Sussex, and most of Dutchess Wow. For me in Sussex County that's a dramatic improvement. Is it all of the county or northern only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Good day all, Current temp is 12f. Cold morning confirmed. Mt Holly NWS seemed concerned about the overnight euro in their AFD this morning. Unless I reviewed the wrong models this morning, the 6 z nam & gfs did not look all that impressive for snow for many posters in thus thread. Others may be able to confirm. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Good day all, Current temp is 12f. Cold morning confirmed. Mt Holly NWS seemed concerned about the overnight euro in their AFD this morning. Unless I reviewed the wrong models this morning, the 6 z nam & gfs did not look all that impressive for snow for many posters in thus thread. Others may be able to confirm. Best I think i would give more weight to the Euro at this point, especially with a southern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I would agree with that. But regardless it will be a nail biter in this general area with regards to the frozen precip outcome. The Poconos, especially the mid and higher elevations (1000-1500'+) appear to be in for significant accumulations of 6"+. That should extend thru Sullivan County NY and up into the Catskills where amounts should approach if not easily exceed 12". Immediately SE of those areas which would include the NW parts of Warren & Sussex Counties in NJ and NW Orange County in NY are 50/50 imo as to whether they receive a warning level snow or just several slushy inches. Again, those near or above 1000' in this area will fare better than the valley locations. Once into the remainder of Warren & Sussex Counties in NJ and Orange County in NY and NW third of Morris and Passaic Counties in NJ & Rockland County in NY it is still possible to see a significant snowfall but more likely to be only a few slushy inches with more rain. There may end up being a very wide range of snow reports ranging from nearly nothing in low elevations and SE areas to 6-12" or more in the highest elevations in the NW areas. A very borderline temp profile creates the a high bust potential in either direction. Add a stalled out and possibly retrograding SLP closed off at 500MB and even more bust potential is added to the equation. Very interesting system from a meteorological stand point regardless if rain or snow falls. Impacts will be significant and widespread over a large area. I think i would give more weight to the Euro at this point, especially with a southern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Very interesting system from a meteorological stand point regardless if rain or snow falls. Impacts will be significant and widespread over a large area. Violently agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Good day all, Current temp is 12f. Cold morning confirmed. Mt Holly NWS seemed concerned about the overnight euro in their AFD this morning. Unless I reviewed the wrong models this morning, the 6 z nam & gfs did not look all that impressive for snow for many posters in thus thread. Others may be able to confirm. Best If one was to believe the 6z GFS.. hr36 MGJ ( Orange County Airport) receives .64" in a 3hr period with 850s below 0 & surface temp @ 34.. That is extremely intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 12 Z NAM was improved. shows some decent snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hi-res NAM shows 2-3" of precipitation region wide. Pretty much no snow east of the Hudson. At this point, it appears my goose is cooked for this one, but I'll be pulling for you guys in the western areas. I'd love to be in the higher elevations of the Catskills or out towards BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 My low elevation is going to kill me again (400). Even if the nam is right it would be decent snow here but very wet . One more tie bit why does everyone have an issue with isentrop guy in the NYC thread . He contributes a lot to those threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Most areas up here should pick up 3"+ of snow with the highest elevations possibly getting much more than that. The 4k 12z NAM points those areas out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 My low elevation is going to kill me again (400). Even if the nam is right it would be decent snow here but very wet . One more tie bit why does everyone have an issue with isentrop guy in the NYC thread . He contributes a lot to those threads You and I are in the same boat. Just take a 10 minute road trip up 23 to about Union Valley Road and it should be a lot of snow up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You and I are in the same boat. Just take a 10 minute road trip up 23 to about Union Valley Road and it should be a lot of snow up that way. I don't have to go more than 1 mile for elevations over 1000 ft in kinnelon lol. Go to top of ricker road in kinnelon . Take 23 , get off at the Kiel ave/kinnelon road exit ( Burger King ). Go across highway about a mike or so and make a right on ricker road . Top of that road is over 1000ft . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I don't have to go more than 1 mile for elevations over 1000 ft in kinnelon lol. Go to top of ricker road in kinnelon . Take 23 , get off at the Kiel ave/kinnelon road exit ( Burger King ). Go across highway about a mike or so and make a right on ricker road . Top of that road is over 1000ft . Ah yes, forgot about that road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Binghamton is calling for eight inches here on Tuesday and a total of 10-12" or more for the entire storm. Gotta admit I'm getting a bit worried now (my car's heater/defroster stopped working). Still under a Winter Storm Watch for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Binghamton is calling for eight inches here on Tuesday and a total of 10-12" or more for the entire storm. Gotta admit I'm getting a bit worried now (my car's heater/defroster stopped working). Still under a Winter Storm Watch for the area. fan stopped ? or fan works and no heat? if its just no heat coming and fan on check your anti freeze level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Overcast with flurries here, 24F up from a low of 11.1. Chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Tiny flakes here too. Looks like a snow sky.......Hope for one more tick East on Euro and we will have a snow/sleet battle royal on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Tiny flakes here too. Looks like a snow sky.......Hope for one more tick East on Euro and we will have a snow/sleet battle royal on our hands My concern is the euro pulled the same stunt the other night and changed again during the afternoon run.I was not really to impressed with 12 Z gfs in my back yard. Looks like a few inches may be possible on the back end. Going to hope for strong dynamics and my elevation to pull out a decent event. Still expect decent rains. Not sure what occurs very late tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 fan stopped ? or fan works and no heat? if its just no heat coming and fan on check your anti freeze level The fan stopped. It was working intermittently but would turn off after about ten minutes. Sometimes it would come back on. Now it doesn't come on at all. I am thinking it might be some sensor, somewhere. The car is 21 years old but otherwise runs fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.