Radders Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I still believe this storm is for those in NEPA, Extreme NWNJ, Extreme Western Orange, Sullivan, Western Ulster. I think so too. Going to take some last minute shifts east to fix this.. There is just no wiggle room with the marginal air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 A snippet from Upton.. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING...AIDED BY APPROACH OFSOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JETSTRUCTURE...STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND STRONG ATLANTICINFLOW (65-75 KT 850 MB EASTERLY JET) BRINGING IN PWATS 1-2 STDSABOVE NORMAL. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS OF IMPACTS.BASED ON CONSENSUS TRACK...THIS FORCING AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD MOVENORTH OF LI/CT TUE EVE WITH DRY-SLOTTING. BUT FOR THE WESTERN HALFOF THE TRI-STATE POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION BANDING TO LINGERACROSS WESTERN HALF OF TRI-STATE AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD TUENIGHT INTO WED MORNING CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDED PRECIP.POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CAA AND DYNAMIC COOLING TO CHANGE PRECIP TOSNOW ACROSS INTERIOR AND ELEVATED PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEYAND NE NJ...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW/SLEET ANDSEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP IS LOW AT THISPOINT...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO AND REFLECTED IN SNOWTOTALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 A snippet from Upton.. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING...AIDED BY APPROACH OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND STRONG ATLANTIC INFLOW (65-75 KT 850 MB EASTERLY JET) BRINGING IN PWATS 1-2 STDS ABOVE NORMAL. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS OF IMPACTS. BASED ON CONSENSUS TRACK...THIS FORCING AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD MOVE NORTH OF LI/CT TUE EVE WITH DRY-SLOTTING. BUT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION BANDING TO LINGER ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF TRI-STATE AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDED PRECIP. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CAA AND DYNAMIC COOLING TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR AND ELEVATED PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW/SLEET AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO AND REFLECTED IN SNOW TOTALS. this is what we will need to count of for any acculating snow it seems. Most models indicate the interior should flip over to snow at some point. 3-6 inches seems reasonable with more if we get into some decent banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 this is what we will need to count of for any acculating snow it seems. Most models indicate the interior should flip over to snow at some point. 3-6 inches seems reasonable with more if we get into some decent banding. Yeah Upton also mentions 1-2" on the front end before we flip to rain then as banding sets up we should turn back over to snow. 3-6" with locally higher amounts seems to be the most reasonable call for the area. Especially in areas >1000' and where banding persist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 50+ kt winds at 925 mb, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This is going to be one of those storms, where we start out as a rain/mix mess. Going over to snow with any intense banding as the storm deepens, then showery wintry precip as it lightens up and we transition in and out of any meaningful precip. I agree 100% though, best chance will be at and above 1,000 feet, esp during the banding and getting snow down to the surface. Even though the models are quite warm, just about all guidance has a very nice dynamic cooling signature once the banding sets up shop over us. Until the system stacks and occludes and everything completely drops below freezing on all levels with anything left with the backside, we are going to have to deal with a garden variety storm. I still like my area out here in Nepa, Sussex and Orange counties, points west/nw. This is one of those events, that I not only like having some decent elevation like I do, but my longitude that will really help. Chances will surely increase the further west you get in our area. This is one of those storms, where I wish I lived another 30 min west on top of the Pocono Plateau, at 2,000 feet and above haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This is going to be one of those storms, where we start out as a rain/mix mess. Going over to snow with any intense banding as the storm deepens, then showery wintry precip as it lightens up and we transition in and out of any meaningful precip. I agree 100% though, best chance will be at and above 1,000 feet, esp during the banding and getting snow down to the surface. Even though the models are quite warm, just about all guidance has a very nice dynamic cooling signature once the banding sets up shop over us. Until the system stacks and occludes and everything completely drops below freezing on all levels with anything left with the backside, we are going to have to deal with a garden variety storm. I still like my area out here in Nepa, Sussex and Orange counties, points west/nw. This is one of those events, that I not only like having some decent elevation like I do, but my longitude that will really help. Chances will surely increase the further west you get in our area. This is one of those storms, where I wish I lived another 30 min west on top of the Pocono Plateau, at 2,000 feet and above haha. Yeah longitude is gonna be huge with this. 2/26/10 redux but with the R/S line further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah longitude is gonna be huge with this. 2/26/10 redux but with the R/S line further west. Very similar setup here. I am getting a bit concerned with how tucked in these tracks are. I typically ache to see a hugger, but man. Models really have that deform band quite far west/nw. We could spare another 50 mile east jump, that's for sure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Very similar setup here. I am getting a bit concerned with how tucked in these tracks are. I typically ache to see a hugger, but man. Models really have that deform band quite far west/nw. We could spare another 50 mile east jump, that's for sure lol. 12z GGEM is 99% rain for us with deform setting up from the Adirondacks down toward the Finger lakes lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Few more westward ticks and we could start looking into our prospects for warm sector convection..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Man, the rest of the GGEM run is miserable. +12C 850 temps in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Man, the rest of the GGEM run is miserable. +12C 850 temps in the long range Ukmet isn't bad for western sections of HV.. 12z GFS has 95% of the precip falling with 850's right around 0 and surface temps just above freezing for MGJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 ggem not the most reliable from this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Few more westward ticks and we could start looking into our prospects for warm sector convection..... East side of the Hudson is looking rough bro. Most of SNE is cooked as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 East side of the Hudson is looking rough bro. Most of SNE is cooked as well Yeah, I'm still looking forward to it though. Would be the most substantial precipitation event all year I think. I also wouldn't be surprised to hear some thunder early Tuesday evening, regardless of p-type. Throw in some 45 mph gusts and it's not a bad day of weather at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yeah, I'm still looking forward to it though. Would be the most substantial precipitation event all year I think. I also wouldn't be surprised to hear some thunder early Tuesday evening, regardless of p-type. Throw in some 45 mph gusts and it's not a bad day of weather at all.I'm with you. It looks like quite the storm, even though we won't get crushed with snow, it should be an interesting few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 East side of the Hudson is looking rough bro. Most of SNE is cooked as well Well Im about 1 mile west of the Hudson so I should have nothing to worry about ECMWF says no problem, still 7-8" but all the other models including GGEM and GFS are now going against it so Im starting to lose my trust in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well Im about 1 mile west of the Hudson so I should have nothing to worry about ECMWF says no problem, still 7-8" but all the other models including GGEM and GFS are now going against it so Im starting to lose my trust in it Ggem was terrible but the gfs wasn't as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Anyone have a weenie wxbell snowmap for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Anyone have a weenie wxbell snowmap for the euro? I'm not sure we can post Euro wxbell maps. Basically has a very sharp cutoff from very little snow to 10+ plus of snow extending from NEPA through Sullivan County, the Catskills, and into the Berskshires. 4-8" in Western Orange and far NWNJ, and 1-4" for the rest of the region. I-88 corridor down through BGM and then into the Poconos look like jackpot zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm not sure we can post Euro wxbell maps. Basically has a very sharp cutoff from very little snow to 10+ plus of snow extending from NEPA through Sullivan County, the Catskills, and into the Berskshires. 4-8" in Western Orange and far NWNJ, and 1-4" for the rest of the region. I-88 corridor down through BGM and then into the Poconos look like jackpot zones. I believe they can be posted if already on social media..I could be mistaken though. I was just wondering cause I always get a kick out of those weenie maps lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 328 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A MAJOR STORM WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WATCH AREA ON TUESDAY CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM IN THE WATCH AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE... WITH AT LEAST PART OF THE STORM POSSIBLY FALLING AS RAIN. HOWEVER HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT GET MOSTLY SNOW. NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-048-072-082030- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0006.141209T0900Z-141210T1200Z/ NORTHERN ONEIDA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO- TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE- SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...ONEIDA...UTICA...ROME... CORTLAND...NORWICH...ONEONTA...COOPERSTOWN...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON... WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...MONTROSE...MILFORD...HONESDALE 328 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. * TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. * TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 35. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...A MIX OF RAIN... SNOW... AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY... CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY... HOWEVER THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER SNOW FALLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Just when I thought it couldn't get any worse,18z nam comes in. Outright disgusting run. Rain pretty much the entire duration back to I 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Upton shrunk the 4-6" area and is only confined to areas from Middletown west toward Greenville/Otisville. Looks like they feel any accumulation will be confined west of the thruway. Maybe things nudge east tonight at 0z. One can only hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 We need a few nudges lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Just when I thought it couldn't get any worse,18z nam comes in. Outright disgusting run. Rain pretty much the entire duration back to I 81. 18z nam is famous for nonsense like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Latest thoughts from bgm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hmm,binghamton going pretty high given the uncertainty. I am in the 8 to 12 west/s.w of Milford Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hmm,binghamton going pretty high given the uncertainty. I am in the 8 to 12 west/s.w of Milford Pa. Yea, I would be super pleased. They put a purple dot over my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yea, I would be super pleased. They put a purple dot over my area. Yeah i saw that, lol. This map illustrates the elevations at and above 1,000 feet for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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