chietanen Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The weenie snow maps are looking pretty tasty. Of course it will change at least a few times over the next couple of days. At least it's looking likely that we get another accumulating snowfall out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Getting interesting. For this storm I have decided to take the coldest and snowiest model to the end. Gfs looked knarly. Hopefully the uk, Canadian and euro come in with different solutions than earlier. Best Tomorrow at this time GFS will come around to whatever the latter models are showing. It will correct from it's flawed physics of not hanging back the trough enough until close to game time. Our only hope is the Euro goes East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Excellent trends today for us in the interior. We didn't need much of a shift to begin with but positive nonetheless. Yup, looks a bit more interesting. We'll see what the euro shows later. I think we will have a better idea after the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The weenie snow maps are looking pretty tasty. Of course it will change at least a few times over the next couple of days. At least it's looking likely that we get another accumulating snowfall out of this. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nyc_35.png You will need Tony Loves Snow to lead us in a group prayer for this GFS run to verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The weenie snow maps are looking pretty tasty. Of course it will change at least a few times over the next couple of days. At least it's looking likely that we get another accumulating snowfall out of this. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nyc_35.png Amazing total difference between you and western Orange county. But like you mentioned, weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The weenie snow maps are looking pretty tasty. Of course it will change at least a few times over the next couple of days. At least it's looking likely that we get another accumulating snowfall out of this. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nyc_35.png Lol that is one heck of a weenie snow map.. Probably not going to happen, but to your point, it at least indicates we are in the game for something.... Euro needs to go east as West Mtn NY stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Tomorrow at this time GFS will come around to whatever the latter models are showing. It will correct from it's flawed physics of not hanging back the trough enough until close to game time. Our only hope is the Euro goes East. Gfs scores a goal every winter a few times. Let's hope it is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Amazing total difference between you and western Orange county. But like you mentioned, weenie maps. Fun to look at though, and it gives us more reason to track it. I sometimes feel like tracking the storm is more fun than the actual storm itself. You will need Tony Loves Snow to lead us in a group prayer for this GFS run to verify.... Ha!! Poor Tony. If he really loved snow that much, he would be living up here with the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Lol that is one heck of a weenie snow map.. Probably not going to happen, but to your point, it at least indicates we are in the game for something.... Euro needs to go east as West Mtn NY stated. Don't get me wrong, I would take my 20 inches to the bank with the GFS but the same crap happened last storm when the GFS was last to see the storm and gradually corrected to the correct solution in the final hours. This will do the same. I would love to be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Don't get me wrong, I would take my 20 inches to the bank with the GFS but the same crap happened last storm when the GFS was last to see the storm and gradually corrected to the correct solution in the final hours. This will do the same. I would love to be wrong... Agreed.. One never knows. I think we will have a much better idea by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Gfs scores a goal every winter a few times. Let's hope it is onto something. There are setups the GFS sniffs out very well early on..........This is not one of them. It would be by luck if it did as the one thing it has on it side is the rarity of systems curling inland rather than fading East of North at this latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The weenie snow maps are looking pretty tasty. Of course it will change at least a few times over the next couple of days. At least it's looking likely that we get another accumulating snowfall out of this. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nyc_35.png What a weenie map! Port Jervis has 10" & Newburgh is 22-24" lol.. Chances are the GFS isn't done correcting west. If the GGEM/UK/EC hold serve then we know whats coming for the GFS in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Can anybody remember how the GFS did vs. the Euro when we had that crazy 2/25-26 2010 storm? I remember there was quite a bit of model waffling and it almost became a now-casting event in my neck of the woods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 0z GFS has a dryslot from hell for SNE w/ flurries.. The CCB basically parks overhead using the Hudson as a driveway and snows itself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That snow map is the stuff of dreams, to be sure. I have this strange feeling that the GFS might not have a firm grasp on this storm though... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Almost comical how dead it is in the NYC thread as well as the SNE thread lol.. Regardless if its gonna snow or not this is gonna be one interesting storm to track and watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Almost comical how dead it is in the NYC thread as well as the SNE thread lol.. Regardless if its gonna snow or not this is gonna be one interesting storm to track and watch unfold. Yup. Gonna be some gorgeous WV loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yup. Gonna be some gorgeous WV loops. And surprises for many ppl. These cutoffs never disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 ECM looks cold through 48 hours...850 looks much further south than 12z Edit: still runs the 850 line up to the CT border at h72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 We'd be dealing with this sucker clear through Friday if the Euro has any say in it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Looks like a very marginal situation where elevation will definitely help a lot. Also not sure what's happening with the odd band of sub 0C 850s over W NJ. Possible cooling from dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 We'd be dealing with this sucker clear through Friday if the Euro has any say in it... Wow yeah...still going through 120 lol. Long-duration flurries and light snow after the main storm occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Wow yeah...still going through 120 lol. Long-duration flurries and light snow after the main storm occludes. Looks like two distinct cyclones. The initial low fills in off NJ on Wednesday afternoon, then the other one near the benchmark becomes dominant and retrogrades back toward NYC. Snow or no snow, that'd be super cool to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Tonights Euro is completely insane.. There isn't much else to say lol. Thank god I'm off from Tuesday to Friday cause as per the Euro this storm is gonna last 50+ hrs. Craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Tonight's Euro, was from a weenie fantasy playbook. Not even sure it's feasible. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Good day all, Nothing confirmed with the storm this week. Mt Holly NWS is all over the place in their forecast discussion with what may occur Much talk of elevation dependant with snow. Early snow call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Quick look at the 12z nam, not the best run overall. Not really in it's range Does seem to inidcate we switch over to snow at some point depending on your location and can pick up a few inches. Keeps QPF in the area for an extended time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Quick look at the 12z nam, not the best run overall. Not really in it's range Does seem to inidcate we switch over to snow at some point depending on your location and can pick up a few inches. Keeps QPF in the area for an extended time. NAM really hasn't changed much since 18z yesterday. Still shows CCB hanging around in western sections with borderline temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12Z GFS has shifted things west a little (as expected) Not good for those east of the Hudson River. Even the wrap-around weenie band is over in the northwestern NJ/PA border. Maybe synwx gets something out of this still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12Z GFS has shifted things west a little (as expected) Not good for those east of the Hudson River. Even the wrap-around weenie band is over in the northwestern NJ/PA border. Maybe synwx gets something out of this still. I still believe this storm is for those in NEPA, Extreme NWNJ, Extreme Western Orange, Sullivan, Western Ulster. Edit: I believe I mentioned yesterday I think Jackpot is in Sullivan county. My thinking hasn't changed maybe Monticello instead of Liberty now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.