snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Let's get a storm track halfway between the 00z Euro and the 12z Canadian, lower temps by 6 degrees in the whole column, and we'd be cooking with gas! In other news... what a crummy day outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Let's get a storm track halfway between the 00z Euro and the 12z Canadian, lower temps by 6 degrees in the whole column, and we'd be cooking with gas! In other news... what a crummy day outside GGEM isn't a bad track at all for us up here. Curious to see surface temps & mid level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z Crazy Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Here's 850 And sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Hey Julian.. Out of curiousty what are the numbers looking like for Sullivan county on the Euro?? I asked in the main thread but have a feeling it will go unanswered lol.. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, the main thread doesn't usually deal in facts or analysis... heh. The weenie snow maps highlight 13.4" at MSV, but the gradient is super tight, with northern Sullivan well into the 2-ft range. The whole run trended a bit cooler and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, the main thread doesn't usually deal in facts or analysis... heh. The weenie snow maps highlight 13.4" at MSV, but the gradient is super tight, with northern Sullivan well into the 2-ft range. The whole run trended a bit cooler and further east. That's impressive. Still time for a few more ticks south and east, one can hope. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Had a few minutes of sleet yesterday evening but that was about it. 0.60" of rain since thenMy rain gauge was blocked with ice but based on what I saw KMGJ had when I cleared out the ice I had about had same amount here before this latest batch came in. Nice to get some decent precipitation events to start working on this drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 That's impressive. Still time for a few more ticks south and east, one can hope. Best Agreed. Low- to mid-level temps are really borderline, a couple degrees on either side of freezing at the height of the precip. We might be able to compensate for that on the mesoscale level. Surface temps 34-36F, and again... that's not a complete dealbreaker. From that solution, a 40 mile tick southeast would make some yardsticks disappear. Not going to hold my breath, but like we said earlier in the season, p-type worries are not always bad worries to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah, the main thread doesn't usually deal in facts or analysis... heh. The weenie snow maps highlight 13.4" at MSV, but the gradient is super tight, with northern Sullivan well into the 2-ft range. The whole run trended a bit cooler and further east. A 50 mile jog east can put most of us in white gold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I actually like where I sit here in Nepa. I am not expecting an all out snowstorm, looks like a mess, possibly changing to a thumper though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 A 50 mile jog east can put most of us in white gold.. Could make the Thanksgiving snow look like dry powder... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 A 50 mile jog east can put most of us in white gold.. I agree to an extent, these closer tracks like Euro and Ukmet, also close this off, stack, and occlude faster, we changeover and get our snow with the ccb band near mid storm. That's when the money hours would come for the very far interior. The further east tracks like Ggem and Gfs, don't stack the low and deepen it until further north with latitude. It would just allow the colder air to work into the mid and upper layers faster. The evolution is still all the same, just occurs at different latitudes. But I think that would place us a bit too far south and on the extreme southern edge of the ccb banding imo. I am far more hopeful of a Euro/Ukmet solution for this. Despite the rain/wintry mix the first half. But a complete crush job could come for anyone 60-70 miles nw of the coast mid way on with the ccb band once the system deepens, stacks and begins to occlude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Looking at the Euro ensemble members, the stronger lows generally develop much further west (some centered over the interior), while weaker lows remain remain offshore. Ensemble mean has a sub-1000 mb low about 75 south of Montauk, but there are three renegade members to the southeast that likely skew the mean somewhat. The mean and control are both even closer with the wall of snow than the op run, if one is to believe the weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I agree to an extent, these closer tracks like Euro and Ukmet, also close this off, stack, and occlude faster, we changeover and get our snow with the ccb band near mid storm. That's when the money hours would come for the very far interior. The further east tracks like Ggem and Gfs, don't stack the low and deepen it until further north with latitude. It would just allow the colder air to work into the mid and upper layers faster. The evolution is still all the same, just occurs at different latitudes. But I think that would place us a bit too far south and on the extreme southern edge of the ccb banding imo. I am far more hopeful of a Euro/Ukmet solution for this. Despite the rain/wintry mix the first half. But a complete crush job could come for anyone 60-70 miles nw of the coast mid way on with the ccb band once the system deepens, stacks and begins to occlude. Agree.. Ill tell ya one thing. Someone is gonna get absolutely crushed with this. As of now my money is on areas from N PA running between BGM & MSV up toward the Catskills & adirondacks. Liberty NY looks to be ground zero right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Agree.. Ill tell ya one thing. Someone is gonna get absolutely crushed with this. As of now my money is on areas from N PA running between BGM & MSV up toward the Catskills & adirondacks. Liberty NY looks to be ground zero right now I can agree with that, those areas could get smoked. I am hopeful for us, but we could be just a wee bit too far s.e sadly. Idk, this type of a system and overall evolution is so hard to nail down, models struggle with closed lows/retrogrades. Hopefully we can get in on the back side if the mid and upper layers crash quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I do feel we get something though. I just find it funny how we are saying we maybe alittle too far SE lol. Especially after all the fringing the past 5 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Wow this storm potentially could be very big for my area getting excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z NAM parks the CCB overhead for 6 hrs lol.. Gotta love that crazy model. Surface temps in the mid 30s and 850s right around 0.. That's a recipe for a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Wow this storm potentially could be very big for my area getting excited! With your elevation you are in a good spot bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18z nam would crush my area, Sussex and most likely Orange. But I can't take anything the nam can offer serious, esp at 84 hrs LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Wow this storm potentially could be very big for my area getting excited! You could certainly do well, you have the latitude and longitude, but elevations just to your nw could seriously be in for a smoking. The elevation factor wont mean much the first half of the system though, not when 925 and 850's are torching. We have to all hope for a quicker drop through the mid and upper levels if this system can deepen quicker. The further latitude and longitude especially, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 A real ideal location so far imo, is areas west of me on the Pocono Plateau at and above 2,000 feet, running n.e through western/nw Sullivan, Delaware, Ulster counties, running N.e through NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Albany's evening AFD is a great read for those interested in the synoptics of the upcoming storm (link: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Good eveing all, Just made a call to Mt Holly NWS. Fog is out of control tonight in the higher terrain. can't see more than 10 feet. Fine down in the valley until around 800 ft elevation or so. Current temp is 37 F. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-062-072145-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-437 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTCENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.THE PROBABILITY FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. A WINTRYMIX IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION OFSNOW AND ICE. FUTURE FORECASTS OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE MONITOREDFOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON THIS AREA.ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The NAM actually doesn't look so bad. The airmass is not unlike a sauna to start off, but the model's high resolution picks up on crashing temps in the low to mid levels as the CCB matures and winds lose the southerly component. By Tuesday evening, we're close to isothermal around 0C from 750 mb to the surface. Hints of pretty trowal enhancement as the low occludes by Wednesday morning, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The 0Z GFS is coming in colder than previous runs.. I am getting a little more interested in some frozen QPF up this way...... Edit - The Hudson Valley is getting crushed with snow at 75hrs. 850 line is running north to south and is to the east on the CT/NY border.. This would be a paste job if happened as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 The 0Z GFS is coming in colder than previous runs.. I am getting a little more interested in some frozen QPF up this way...... Edit - The Hudson Valley is getting crushed with snow at 75hrs. 850 line is running north to south and is to the east on the CT/NY border.. This would be a paste job if happened as depicted. Getting interesting. For this storm I have decided to take the coldest and snowiest model to the end. Gfs looked knarly. Hopefully the uk, Canadian and euro come in with different solutions than earlier. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Excellent trends today for us in the interior. We didn't need much of a shift to begin with but positive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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