NepaJames8602 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 1/4 inch of snow earlier, followed by sleet and then freezing rain. 32 degrees and freezing rain still. Temps shot up four degrees since 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I just looked at the 12z Euro, crazy snowstorm in NNE early next week. Inches of rain at 35F in our neck of the woods. Most of the warmth is in the low levels so maybe there's something there if we can get some northerly flow from a deeper surface low... who knows. Probably grasping at straws. Seriously, though - 2"+ of rain in the mid-30s would probably prompt some of these: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 There is actually a bright side to that. The soil moisture will be high so when it does get cold the ground will freeze hard instead of having that air pocket under the snowpack which promotes a fast melt off at the end of the season. It will also extend the mt bike season and that's never a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 There is actually a bright side to that. The soil moisture will be high so when it does get cold the ground will freeze hard instead of having that air pocket under the snowpack which promotes a fast melt off at the end of the season. It will also extend the mt bike season and that's never a bad thing I get the feeling that anything short of last season's duration will leave you disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Nemo 2.0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Nemo 2.0? Later this weekend into next week is starting to look really interesting for us. Gives us something to watch and takes the discussion away from the progged mid-month torch that everyone is worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Nemo 2.0? Nice to see that some inland areas and SNE might jackpot more often this winter. Norwich 30"? Lol. Last few seasons you couldn't jackpot unless you lived in Freehold, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Nice to see that some inland areas and SNE might jackpot more often this winter. Norwich 30"? Lol. Last few seasons you couldn't jackpot unless you lived in Freehold, NJLast season the strongly -EPO covered up ALOT of the poor teleconnectors throughout the winter. IMO without that we would've had a real clunker on our hands. Now this winter the -NAO is being shy currently lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Nice to see that some inland areas and SNE might jackpot more often this winter. Norwich 30"? Lol. Last few seasons you couldn't jackpot unless you lived in Freehold, NJ Looks like order has been restored w/ mother nature lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looks like order has been restored w/ mother nature lol.. It's ok. We are full. You can have our leftovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It's ok. We are full. You can have our leftovers. It was nice seeing your palm trees covered in snow the last few yrs. Thanks for giving us our snow back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It was nice seeing your palm trees covered in snow the last few yrs. Thanks for giving us our snow back. Dont laugh. They look great on one's property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro with a sub-990 mb low at 40.5N, 71.5W, next Tuesday, drawing in low-level air just cold enough for snow, especially the further NW you go. QPF over an inch, as well. Unfortunately, the Euro has actually been one of the more inconsistent models with this potential storm... then again, it's nice to know that even in a weenie suicide pattern, we could still theoretically pick up a quick foot or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 A vast majority of the individual Euro EPS members have a formidable low somewhere offshore on Tuesday, with numerous solutions well inside the benchmark. Definitely a positive step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It nailed the last event for us.. Seems to be leading the way once again with this potential storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It nailed the last event for us.. Seems to be leading the way once again with this potential storm EURO is king with southern stream systems. the bread and butter of the model IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 EURO is king with southern stream systems. the bread and butter of the model IMO And late-season typhoons, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And late-season typhoons, heh that too! sandy 2012 it nailed 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think it's pretty clear the ECMWF just has a superior grasp on worldwide forecasting overall. Does anybody ever get the feeling that NCEP is just trying to juggle too many models and products? Obviously each one was intended to serve a distinct purpose, but none of them stand out as particularly reliable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think it's pretty clear the ECMWF just has a superior grasp on worldwide forecasting overall. Does anybody ever get the feeling that NCEP is just trying to juggle too many models and products? Obviously each one was intended to serve a distinct purpose, but none of them stand out as particularly reliable... the GFS parallel does hold "some" promise but we will have to see how it rates as it builds its track record starting with this winter season. EURO and UKMET are two top models IMO. the CRAS/NAVGEM & NAM being the bottom three in that rank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 the GFS parallel does hold "some" promise but we will have to see how it rates as it builds its track record starting with this winter season. EURO and UKMET are two top models IMO. the CRAS/NAVGEM & NAM being the bottom three in that rank Yeah but the CRAS is run independently by CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin/Madison so it's the closest to a basement model out of any of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro/rgem combo inside 48 hrs IMO is the 98 yanks.. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Euro/rgem combo inside 48 hrs IMO is the 98 yanks.. Lol 114 Wins is blizzard of 96 I will give you 04 up 3 -0. Then right in the giggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 114 Wins is blizzard of 96 I will give you 04 up 3 -0. Then right in the giggy How dare you bring up that yr!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Pretty nice looking UKMET track, but is it as warm and thin as the CMC was? Cant really tell with the classic maps that the UKMET only offers on meteocentre after 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 2/26/10 is getting thrown around an awful lot the past 24 hrs.. Should be a fun 4 days to track this thing. Here is a little tbt for ya.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The HPC really seems to like this... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The 12z Canadian and UK both adjusted quite a bit weaker and further west. We might still do alright with something like that, but given the marginal airmass, I'd definitely rather have a stronger surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The 12z Canadian and UK both adjusted quite a bit weaker and further west. We might still do alright with something like that, but given the marginal airmass, I'd definitely rather have a stronger surface low. If it cuts through LI into SNE we should still be ok ( especially on the west side of the Hudson) but if this thing cuts right through NYC into the HV then a CNY hit looks more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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