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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


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Good day all,

 

Current temp is 38 F with light rain falling.

High 56 F.

Mt Holly NWS is forecasting 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow afternoon/night going over to a mix bag.

Forecast for tonight is mostly cloudy.

I checked the radar and I see a nice slof of precip out to the west moving east.

Assumption is this does not reach the area?

 

Best

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The NAM and GFS both yield respectable QPF, but chiefly after the onset of the low-level torch. It's a shame our HP over QC is so transient.

Hires nam on ewall kept it sleet until 5z or so here...would lead to an ice storm with about .25" IP/Zr if that were the case. sounds about right...too bad it warms up so fast but not a huge storm anyway

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Wow, long range GFS sure looks warm...hopefully its on the high side...most of my snowpack disappeared overnight sunday night...only piles remain...and even those will be gone soon at this rate. Looks very suspicious to me considering a few days ago it showed a deep trough over the Eastern US from hour 312-384.

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From Albany...

 

 

THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AS NOTED BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE H700-H500 LAYER. SO...EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WITHIN A BAND OR AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP...SHORTLY AFTER ITS ONSET. THE
THERMAL PROFILE SHOULD INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO A
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT.

 

Sweet. all that said, though, I'm at 36F and rising... not ideal

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