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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


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no flurries in the area yet , so my last call is 11 inches for mby here in Kingston.....I just think it will be a fast mover .

I would take that and run with it...would be my biggest early season event since dec 2008...Im just a little worried about northward extent of precip and if we can get it to start before the boundary layer warms up during the day...radar shows the front edge near POU right now

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Looking at the latest short term models, it looks like even our region will be cutting it close. The 6z RGEM looks great, the hi-res NAM gets the mix line through Putnam and the eastern half of Dutchess, while the HRRR suggests almost the entire region changes over to sleet by about 6 pm. Albany has adjusted their higher snowfall totals a bit north as it seems like they are buying into the warmer solution at this time.

 

CHANGE 2...WITH THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WEST...WARMER MID LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF NW
CT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THUS...IN THESE AREAS...HAVE LOWERED SNOWFALL
TOTALS...WITH MAINLY 6-8 INCHES EXPECTED...LOWEST IN SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WHERE SOME SLEET IS NOW EXPECTED TO MIX IN DUE
TO THE WARMING ALOFT.

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Looking at the latest short term models, it looks like even our region will be cutting it close. The 6z RGEM looks great, the hi-res NAM gets the mix line through Putnam and the eastern half of Dutchess, while the HRRR suggests almost the entire region changes over to sleet by about 6 pm. Albany has adjusted their higher snowfall totals a bit north as it seems like they are buying into the warmer solution at this time.

 

CHANGE 2...WITH THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER

WEST...WARMER MID LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF NW

CT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN

BERKSHIRES. THUS...IN THESE AREAS...HAVE LOWERED SNOWFALL

TOTALS...WITH MAINLY 6-8 INCHES EXPECTED...LOWEST IN SOUTHERN

LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WHERE SOME SLEET IS NOW EXPECTED TO MIX IN DUE

TO THE WARMING ALOFT.

 

I think this is gonna be one of those storms where west is better.. Most of CT looks doomed 

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Not worried about the change either. Temp is moving in the right direction. Once steadier and heavier precip move in I suspect we begin to transfer back to sleet / snow then all snow. This probably happens by mid morning or so depending on specific locales and elevation. I expect a general 8-12" across the NW zones. Maybe a touch less in a few unfavorable spots and probably an inch or two more in the typically favored higher elevations. Will be a battle zone near NYC and into the neigboring N&W suburbs into and maybe well into the afternoon.

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