snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thats the best run yet from the RGEM & at this time frame thats a model you want on your side. Curious to see precip amounts. If I had to guess its north of 30mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How far north does that mix line come rockland orange border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Is this the type of system that will have subsidence on either side of the banding features? I thought I read that certain systems do, and others don't. It looks like whoever is near that changeover zone is going to get smoked by heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Is this the type of system that will have subsidence on either side of the banding features? I thought I read that certain systems do, and others don't. It looks like whoever is near that changeover zone is going to get smoked by heavy wet snow. That could be me lol I'm at work at West Point all day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How far north does that mix line come rockland orange border? Hr 21 looks to be the warmest panel outside of the first 2 hrs.. Mix line looks to get to lower rock land & about 50 % of Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That could be me lol I'm at work at West Point all day tomorrow Nah u you have to be a good 25 miles south of West Point in order to run into danger. Regardless most get smoked up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Is this the type of system that will have subsidence on either side of the banding features? I thought I read that certain systems do, and others don't. It looks like whoever is near that changeover zone is going to get smoked by heavy wet snow. Heaviest snow falls where u can smell the rain... i.e. 2/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Enjoy. I was just gonna post the map.. 30-40mm of snow throughout the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I was just gonna post the map.. 30-40mm of snow throughout the area JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 10-14" looks like a good bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS has increased precip for the area.. Now gets most areas at or above 1" Riding the RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RGEM definitely shifted it's snow axis a good 20-25 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Looks like the models will be nudging westward right up until go time. Now that our baroclinic leaf is shaping up on satellite imagery, it's hard to imagine how much could go wrong between now and 18z tomorrow. I'll throw out a forecast of 9" for mby, but the potential is definitely there for a foot or more. Good job on finding the sweet spot with this one, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Albany throwing the weenie dogs a bone tonight... INTERESTING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 2 CLOSED UPPER VORTICITY CENTERS LINED UP FROM JUSTNORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA...SO WILL THEEXTENSIVE LINE OF SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET ENERGYALONG THE EASTERN U.S. HELP THE UPPER DEFORMATION IN THE UPCOMINGSTORM TO BECOME A CLOSED VORTICITY CENTER LIKE THE ONESDOWNSTREAM? IF SO...PERHAPS THE UPCOMING STORM COULD HAVE MOREUPPER DYNAMICS AND BUILD THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Albany throwing the weenie dogs a bone tonight... X-rated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 For what it's worth, Euro lol. Hugger city paste job! Just saw hr 24 panel... lol incoming bomb!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 For what it's worth, 0z Euro. Hugger city paste job! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Other than a few events ( 2/26/10, 10/29/11, 2/13/14) we have been getting the shaft the past 5 yrs. This one has the makings of a potential KU event for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Other than a few events ( 2/26/10, 10/29/11, 2/13/14) we have been getting the shaft the past 5 yrs. This one has the makings of a potential KU event for the interior Yeah, i'm feeling this one man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yeah, i'm feeling this one man! Same here.. Pretty much every model now crushes the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Other than a few events ( 2/26/10, 10/29/11, 2/13/14) we have been getting the shaft the past 5 yrs. This one has the makings of a potential KU event for the interior How far inland does the sleet line get in nj ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How far inland does the sleet line get in nj ? With the maps I have I can't pinpoint.. James has SV, he might be able to answer that. From what I can tell though it has a similar temp profile as the RGEM but precip is way more expansive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's quite enjoyable to see these gorgeous model runs and not still be something like 96 hours out. This definitely looks to tide us over until the forecast death ridge abates in mid-late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Euro weenie snow map is epic. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wettest run yet from the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When is the last time we've seen things trend in our favor less than 24 hrs from a event. Finally getting the goods! I am stoked beyond belief. Sorry to say, i had to laugh at those who harped and claimed victory on east solutions for the past two days, never rule out last min shifts in any direction when you're 48 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When is the last time we've seen things trend in our favor less than 24 hrs from a event. Finally getting the goods! I am stoked beyond belief. Sorry to say, i had to laugh at those who harped on east solutions for the past two days, never rule out last min shifts in any direction when you're 48 hrs out. These last minute shifts are leaving me in a frenzy here in Dobbs Ferry. I am so close to big snows with 350' elevation in south-central Westchester but could also rain. Local news has me on the border of 1-3" and 3-6" but I could get more if we get banding and the boundary layer stays cold enough. Ignore my profile as I'm not in Bay Ridge since it's the holiday and I am visiting family... The 0z ECM definitely had a colder profile than the 0z GFS although 700mb warming from the tight track of the mid-level low is evident. This should really crush Putnam and Orange County in NY as well as back into the Poconos...I definitely see some favorable effects from the elevation there...the boundary layer will be much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When is the last time we've seen things trend in our favor less than 24 hrs from a event. Finally getting the goods! I am stoked beyond belief. Sorry to say, i had to laugh at those who harped and claimed victory on east solutions for the past two days, never rule out last min shifts in any direction when you're 48 hrs out. Yeah... you never know & honestly I think there will be some surprises tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 These last minute shifts are leaving me in a frenzy here in Dobbs Ferry. I am so close to big snows with 350' elevation in south-central Westchester but could also rain. Local news has me on the border of 1-3" and 3-6" but I could get more if we get banding and the boundary layer stays cold enough. Ignore my profile as I'm not in Bay Ridge since it's the holiday and I am visiting family... The 0z ECM definitely had a colder profile than the 0z GFS although 700mb warming from the tight track of the mid-level low is evident. This should really crush Putnam and Orange County in NY as well as back into the Poconos...I definitely see some favorable effects from the elevation there...the boundary layer will be much colder. it def is a close call for you down there in Dobbs.. I could see a 3-6" event for you though with a good amount of IP. You should at least stay all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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