snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 8-10 for Albany to Poughkeepsie? I wonder what model they went with on that one...none seem to have that much anymore Both the UK & Euro give the HV up to ALB 1.1-1.5" of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Could this upcoming NAM be the famous over amped monster qpf run that's inevitable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM is a bomb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nam looks outstanding for our area, city seems to do well, although further west it's way more amped allowing dynamic cooling to drop temps rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Still 30 hrs out.. Anything is possible but this is def looking like a UK/EC win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ITs been a while since I've been this confident over 36 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z NAM: MGJ - 1.18" SWF - 1.23" FWN - 1.21" POU - 1.25" Overall pretty similar to the Euro. About .10" more give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I always read about an old "Euro/Eta" rule with regard to coastal lows. Think that applies here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I always read about an old "Euro/Eta" rule with regard to coastal lows. Think that applies here? I remember the "EE" rule yrs ago lol.. It very well might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0z NAM: MGJ - 1.18" SWF - 1.23" FWN - 1.21" POU - 1.25" Overall pretty similar to the Euro. About .10" more give or take With 10:1 ratios... Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM sounding for near Newburgh at the height of the storm: Best lift looks to be well above 700 so we might not be dealing with the prettiest, most efficient snowflakes ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Might as well play a round of golf tomorrow. Think it will be the last one for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Has anyone seen the rgem.... Un-real.. I could only load to about 46 hrs but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Has anyone seen the rgem.... Un-real.. I could only load to about 46 hrs but wow Its a beast.. Way more reliable SR model than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 you guys north of NYC are gonna get dumped on. RGEM is a thing of beauty for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Its a beast.. Way more reliable SR model than the NAM. Absolutely, the banding set up looks great for our area on the rgem as well, I saw u mentioned that banding sitting over the Hudson (beat me to it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Absolutely, the banding set up looks great for our area on the rgem as well, I saw u mentioned that banding sitting over the Hudson (beat me to it) Yeah its picking up on a possible CCB structure right over the HV as the storm exits NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 9am Wednesday Morning.. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah its picking up on a possible CCB structure right over the HV as the storm exits NE I don't think it's crazy for someone in orange, ulster, or Sullivan to jackpot at 15+ in some spots... Especially the Orange County snow belt out there in Monroe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't think it's crazy for someone in orange, ulster, or Sullivan to jackpot at 15+ in some spots... Especially the Orange County snow belt out there in Monroe lol this is the type of storm where the CCB in the LHV and catskills can make a run at 20"+ and also have enough instability to have thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this is the type of storm where the CCB in the LHV and catskills can make a run at 20"+ and also have enough instability to have thundersnow Thats another thing... Wouldn't be surprised if a few ppl hear some rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thats another thing... Wouldn't be surprised if a few ppl hear some rumbles of thunder. I would not be surprised that if the GFS and euro show anything remotely close to nam and rgem in terms of qpf we will see warnings issued with increased snow totals forecasted by daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I would not be surprised that if the GFS and euro show anything remotely close to nam and rgem in terms of qpf we will see warnings issued with increased snow totals forecasted by daybreak I wouldn't go any higher than 10-14" right now and thats for the usual favored locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I wouldn't go any higher than 10-14" right now and thats for the usual favored locations.GFS continues its sharp North and west cut off on the precip shield... Not sure what the other models see that it's not catching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I wouldn't go any higher than 10-14" right now and thats for the usual favored locations. Yeah, I think around a foot is a reasonable ceiling given "meh" ratios and the rapid movement of the storm. I would be very surprised to see anybody exceed 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, I think around a foot is a reasonable ceiling given "meh" ratios and the rapid movement of the storm. I would be very surprised to see anybody exceed 14" I think it all depends on how much of the initial falls as rain or mix as well, rgem shows a few hours of mix even up here, then it will be interesting to see how the warmer waters feeding offshore will play into the banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was reading back in the forums to the February 13-14th storm. Man, what a wild ride that was! I mentioned this in the main thread, but the GFS precip forecast was very low in that storm as well. Different setup this time, but for that system the Euro and most of the mesoscale models had 1-2 feet of snow and the GFS had 3-6" at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was reading back in the forums to the February 13-14th storm. Man, what a wild ride that was! I mentioned this in the main thread, but the GFS precip forecast was very low in that storm as well. Different setup this time, but for that system the Euro and most of the mesoscale models had 1-2 feet of snow and the GFS had 3-6" at one point. Yeah, that definitely won a spot amongst my favorite storms. It's also a good reminder of how hard it is to get much more than a foot of snow around here... even with a long-duration, two-part storm such as Feb 2014 (complete with thundersnow, an overhead closed ULL, and TROWAL enhancement) I barely broke 20". I know no two storms are ever remotely alike, but that's part of the reason why I'm cautious of the excited 15" or 20" calls on the boards for this slingshot Miller type A in November that should be over in 8-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was reading back in the forums to the February 13-14th storm. Man, what a wild ride that was! I mentioned this in the main thread, but the GFS precip forecast was very low in that storm as well. Different setup this time, but for that system the Euro and most of the mesoscale models had 1-2 feet of snow and the GFS had 3-6" at one point. I don't think anyone up here should worry. GFS has been all over with this storm between position and qpf, not to mention its position of the initial wave and negative trough have varied as well... King euro baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah, that definitely won a spot amongst my favorite storms. It's also a good reminder of how hard it is to get much more than a foot of snow around here... even with a long-duration, two-part storm such as Feb 2014 (complete with thundersnow, an overhead closed ULL, and TROWAL enhancement) I barely broke 20". I know no two storms are ever remotely alike, but that's part of the reason why I'm cautious of the excited 15" or 20" calls on the boards for this slingshot Miller type A in November that should be over in 8-12 hours. Not to mention the snowpack was already 15-20" before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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