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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


Animal

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Guest Patrick

That run makes me cautiously optimistic that snywx was right with the call for nwnj. Guys to my northeast look like an incredible thanksgiving storm!

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What's the ratios

Gonna make me work, huh? lol

 

Per 12z Euro: 500 mb temps -11C at the height of the storm, 700 mb generally -6C, 850 around -3C, 1000-500 mb thicknesses around 544 dam. Optimal dendritic growth generally occurs between -12C and -18C, so we'll be a bit warm which might cut down on snow growth overall. 700 mb frontogenesis is pretty intense just to our southeast though, so if we do end up under the resultant mesoscale banding, decent precip rates should cool the column and allow for better-than-abysmal ratios. Given all that, I would guess like 9:1 to 12:1, with higher spots under any persistent banding, and maybe a little worse when rates are meager.

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To supplement my thoughts: the wxbell snow map is a pretty uniform 10-12" for all NW 'burbs, assuming 10:1 ratios. Those graphics tend to be overly optimistic with regard to accumulations from light precipitation before and after the main slug of precip (some of which may be lost to evaporation and marginal temps, etc.), but I do think it's possible to average better than 10:1. Those two factors might cancel each other out, so for once I think the wxbell snow algorithm may end up pretty close to reality, assuming the Euro's parameters come to pass. Maybe not for the right reasons, though.

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Guest Patrick

I think a lot of us are in a good place for this one... welcome, tornadojay, to the subforum of the subforum where people are just...calmer? 

Animal I've been following your numbers - you really think we hit the 12" mark this time? I mean - you are likelier than me based on history, but still - wow -

Sussex County NJ for me, at about 900'.  I think we are both in a good place for this one...

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I think a lot of us are in a good place for this one... welcome, tornadojay, to the subforum of the subforum where people are just...calmer? 

Animal I've been following your numbers - you really think we hit the 12" mark this time? I mean - you are likelier than me based on history, but still - wow -

IMHO, I think a tick West is very possible once everything is sampled.  The Euro often sees something, backs off and then recorrects a bit in that direction.  I think we are near consensus here, and our area from NE PA/Sussex Co and up through the LHV are in for 8-14"...  

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Guest Patrick

I'm at 66 right now! 

What's everyone got for current temperatures? 71 here. Pretty wild ride from teens and low 20's Saturday morning to low 70's today and potentially 10+" of snow on Wednesday.

 

EDIT: Just saw that POU set a new record high today, currently 70.

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