Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euros way more amped so far No its not. Stop listening to Yanks fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Wow, that is a confident call. I haven't really being paying much attention to this storm, but that graphic has me perked up. Pretty much in agreement with BGM & ALB as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Pretty much in agreement with BGM & ALB as well Exactly, they are all quite well aligned. That definitely gives pause for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro's headed east...karma strikes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro's headed east...karma strikes? I thought the weather channel was only on letter C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Still over 1" QPF for everybody, despite the weaker low and more easterly track. It can stop correcting east now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Still over 1" QPF for everybody, despite the weaker low and more easterly track. It can stop correcting east now... Easily 8-12 inches.If you get lucky in some banding, maybe a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Still over 1" QPF for everybody, despite the weaker low and more easterly track. It can stop correcting east now... What's the ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1.1"-1.3" of precip for all.. With possible banding in place some ppl could be looking at 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro is 12"+ for everyone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 That run makes me cautiously optimistic that snywx was right with the call for nwnj. Guys to my northeast look like an incredible thanksgiving storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 1.1"-1.3" of precip for all.. With possible banding in place some ppl could be looking at 12"+ 10-14" looks like a good bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What's the ratios Gonna make me work, huh? lol Per 12z Euro: 500 mb temps -11C at the height of the storm, 700 mb generally -6C, 850 around -3C, 1000-500 mb thicknesses around 544 dam. Optimal dendritic growth generally occurs between -12C and -18C, so we'll be a bit warm which might cut down on snow growth overall. 700 mb frontogenesis is pretty intense just to our southeast though, so if we do end up under the resultant mesoscale banding, decent precip rates should cool the column and allow for better-than-abysmal ratios. Given all that, I would guess like 9:1 to 12:1, with higher spots under any persistent banding, and maybe a little worse when rates are meager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I thought the weather channel was only on letter C? This was comedic gold you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To supplement my thoughts: the wxbell snow map is a pretty uniform 10-12" for all NW 'burbs, assuming 10:1 ratios. Those graphics tend to be overly optimistic with regard to accumulations from light precipitation before and after the main slug of precip (some of which may be lost to evaporation and marginal temps, etc.), but I do think it's possible to average better than 10:1. Those two factors might cancel each other out, so for once I think the wxbell snow algorithm may end up pretty close to reality, assuming the Euro's parameters come to pass. Maybe not for the right reasons, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This was comedic gold you guys I smiled and exhaled slightly more air through my nose than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 hey guys.. been a long while... hopefully we get some good snows this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 That run makes me cautiously optimistic that snywx was right with the call for nwnj. Guys to my northeast look like an incredible thanksgiving storm! We are in for an incrediable storm. I am stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 hey guys.. been a long while... hopefully we get some good snows this week. Sup jay glad youre around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sup jay glad youre around hey buddy.. long time no see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice to have a met visit this sub forum Jay! And at a good time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nice to have a met visit this sub forum Jay! And at a good time... it's been a while since i've posted here... I live in Nanuet in Rockland county... extreme lower hudson valley, but close enough to try to hang with you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This was comedic gold you guys I LOL'd But I'm not sure what the bad karma he speaks of is from? Went running in shorts and a t-shirt this morning, will be sledding with the kids on Wednesday. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 it's been a while since i've posted here... I live in Nanuet in Rockland county... extreme lower hudson valley, but close enough to try to hang with you guys Sussex County NJ for me, at about 900'. I think we are both in a good place for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think a lot of us are in a good place for this one... welcome, tornadojay, to the subforum of the subforum where people are just...calmer? Animal I've been following your numbers - you really think we hit the 12" mark this time? I mean - you are likelier than me based on history, but still - wow - Sussex County NJ for me, at about 900'. I think we are both in a good place for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think a lot of us are in a good place for this one... welcome, tornadojay, to the subforum of the subforum where people are just...calmer? Animal I've been following your numbers - you really think we hit the 12" mark this time? I mean - you are likelier than me based on history, but still - wow - IMHO, I think a tick West is very possible once everything is sampled. The Euro often sees something, backs off and then recorrects a bit in that direction. I think we are near consensus here, and our area from NE PA/Sussex Co and up through the LHV are in for 8-14"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 hey guys.. been a long while... hopefully we get some good snows this week. It def has been a long time.. Nice to see you posting in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What's everyone got for current temperatures? 71 here. Pretty wild ride from teens and low 20's Saturday morning to low 70's today and potentially 10+" of snow on Wednesday. EDIT: Just saw that POU set a new record high today, currently 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm at 66 right now! What's everyone got for current temperatures? 71 here. Pretty wild ride from teens and low 20's Saturday morning to low 70's today and potentially 10+" of snow on Wednesday. EDIT: Just saw that POU set a new record high today, currently 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm at 66 right now! Allentown, PA set a record low Saturday morning and a record high today. Pretty quick turnaround! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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