snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thanks for the warm welcome! It's been awhile since I posted. I remember us discussing Wayne county quite well, truly another planet up there in Nepa, latitude, elevation , just a crazy micro climate there in spots. All of Nepa for that matter. Yes, will be interesting to see what tomorrow's runs do. Hey James.. Long time no speak. I think NE PA, NW NJ, SE NY do well with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Are you in BK or Dobbs for this one? Dobbs. Makes a huge difference in this. Thanks for the warm welcome! It's been awhile since I posted. I remember us discussing Wayne county quite well, truly another planet up there in Nepa, latitude, elevation , just a crazy micro climate there in spots. All of Nepa for that matter. Yes, will be interesting to see what tomorrow's runs do. Yeah Wayne County is great...but as we said in previous discussions, the winters have been pretty mediocre up there. I know my house at 1600' averages near 75" a year, but no way they've gotten that much. The last great winter for the Poconos was 06-07 in the second half, although the February 2010 stretch was great there too. Definitely been better on the coast though recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hey James.. Long time no speak. I think NE PA, NW NJ, SE NY do well with this event. Thanks! Nice to see you still around these parts. If Euro and Ukmet have any say, looks like a classic Nepa,Nw NJ, Hudson Valley hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Dobbs. Makes a huge difference in this. Yeah Wayne County is great...but as we said in previous discussions, the winters have been pretty mediocre up there. I know my house at 1600' averages near 75" a year, but no way they've gotten that much. The last great winter for the Poconos was 06-07 in the second half, although the February 2010 stretch was great there too. Definitely been better on the coast though recently. Yeah, it's been a string of mediocre winters for sure. Not sure how well last winter was around those parts, but I did record 79 inches last season in my area. Although I am much further s.e and closer to the banding of some of those Nor'easter's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Dobbs. Makes a huge difference in this. Yes I agree.. I think some of us are forgetting that its still November. I think the immediate coast doesn't see much but one wouldn't have to go far inland to see some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would def be cautious along the immediate coast and in the city still. Some premature jumps on the wagon I see in that thread. That's just my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the interiors are in a good spot, I'm just hesitant to lock anything in given the long-term trend has been so against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, it's been a string of mediocre winters for sure. Not sure how well last winter was around those parts, but I did record 79 inches last season in my area. Although I am much further s.e and closer to the banding of some of those Nor'easter's. I think snowfall was near average last winter....you probably did a lot better with the 1/3 storm though. My house in PA only had 3" from that one..we got just as much from the arctic front a few days early. I think the 2/13 event did some damage up there, however, and there were a lot of light snowfalls from the cold weather. That area tends to do well with arctic FROPAs and leftover lake effect... It's been a while since the season was way above average though. I remember some insane winters like 93-94 and 02-03 up there. Haven't seen anything that's spread the wealth into the deep interior like that. I would def be cautious along the immediate coast and in the city still. Some premature jumps on the wagon I see in that thread. That's just my opinion though. Yes a lot of NYC residents are spiking the football because the ECM and the GFS moved east. However, the boundary layer warming is brutal on the models that are closer to the coast...thicknesses are nearly 550dam for NYC on the 0z ECM at 72 hours. There's still going to be a significant front-end dump but the warm surface that's modeled is real. The track is not ideal early in the season for the coast unless it looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Binghamton just hoisted a watch for my area of Nepa and western Catskills. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 307 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 ...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY... .A COASTAL STORM WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. NYZ057-062-PAZ040-048-072-250815- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0005.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/ DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...MILFORD... HONESDALE 307 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO WESTERN CATSKILLS. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS...SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN THE WATCH AREA. && $$ RRM/MDP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 6z NAM looks to have shifted back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Having awoke from some much needed sleep, I see the main thread is grasping at straws for their Eastern "clusters" lol Anyway WS watches up huh?!? 48 hrs before is very reassuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Having awoke from some much needed sleep, I see the main thread is grasping at straws for their Eastern "clusters" lol Anyway WS watches up huh?!? 48 hrs before is very reassuring Early watch posting could be for the heavy travel day Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Early watch posting could be for the heavy travel day Wednesday. I agree but unless confidence is high I don't see them doing it this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Interesting that even the Albany AFD mentions the possibility of precipitation either starting out as rain or briefly changing over to rain. I think that slight east shift on the Euro is actually a very good thing for most of us, especially given the robust amount of moisture with the system. There does not appear to be a sharp drop-off in precipitation on the NW side of the low that we have become so used to over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 .36 of rain with just some scattered showers around now...which is about half of what the models had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Early watch posting could be for the heavy travel day Wednesday.This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hey Buddy, long time no 'see', I hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hey Buddy, long time no 'see', I hope all is well. Same with you Rob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A head honcho from the Weather Channel was just on CNBC & said THEY (meaning the Weather Channel) will call the storm "Cato". Why don't they just stop it with their names.... seriously.... just stop.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Start time? Is the drive into the city gonna suck Wed. morning? I know the ride home will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Start time? Is the drive into the city gonna suck Wed. morning? I know the ride home will... Looks to be late morning or early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 And while millions of people do travel its not the busiest travel day http://traveltips.usatoday.com/top-10-worst-travel-days-106014.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NOAA is super conservative for me says rain/snow on wed with 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NOAA is super conservative for me says rain/snow on wed with 3-5" I think the only reason they are mentioning accumulations already is because they pulled the trigger early on the Watch due to the holiday. Mine says 3-5" on Wed but snow continuing Wed night but no mention of accumulations yet for then, its too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think the only reason they are mentioning accumulations already is because they pulled the trigger early on the Watch due to the holiday. Mine says 3-5" on Wed but snow continuing Wed night but no mention of accumulations yet for then, its too early. sorry I should have elaborated, my emphasis of confusion is on the rain snow mix they have me in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What I wouldn't give to lock this in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 What I wouldn't give to lock this in... Can u post snow total map for lower Hudson valley my mobile Noaa isn't loading plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 Recent model treands have been outstanding. Final call 8-12 inches for my backyard. November has been a rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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