UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS is not a great run for us...not bad but it's no euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 very worried about further east movement.... GFS is not a great run for us...not bad but it's no euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 very worried about further east movement.... I wouldn't be too worried... It would have to be a major euro fail for it to move far enough east to screw us... GFS is still a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In a couple hours the Euro will allay our fears, and we'll wonder why we ever worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 In a couple hours the Euro will allay our fears, and we'll wonder why we ever worried. Everyone likes to take the latest model verbatim, I would be more confident whether it showed snow or not taking the euro that has been consistent for nearly 6 straight runs rather than a " trending" model... Once I see the consistent model begin to waver then I'll begin to draw a different opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro would have to shift 200 miles for it to be in the GFS range lol.. As long as its a nudge E I'm ok with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I still like our position for this one. Perhaps some mood flakes in the air during the day on Thanksgiving too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro would have to shift 200 miles for it to be in the GFS range lol.. As long as its a nudge E I'm ok with it. I really think the euro is gonna hold.. Not cause I want it to but because it's been so unwavered, we've seen this many times with early season storms, a perfect example is the October 2011 storm, euro had this storm for almost a week before any other model even hinted at it... Never changed, everyone was throwing it out until about 24 hrs before event every model caught on to the deeper negative trough that pulled the low west and up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I really think the euro is gonna hold.. Not cause I want it to but because it's been so unwavered, we've seen this many times with early season storms, a perfect example is the October 2011 storm, euro had this storm for almost a week before any other model even hinted at it... Never changed, everyone was throwing it out until about 24 hrs before event every model caught on to the deeper negative trough that pulled the low west and up the coast 0z GFS in regards to precip amount didn't change much for us from 18z. Only thing different was it was colder throughout for the coast & a nudge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z GFS in regards to precip amount didn't change much for us from 18z. Only thing different was it was colder throughout for the coast & a nudge east. You know why this isnt gonna happen? Im off wed and thursday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The Euro would have to shift 200 miles for it to be in the GFS range lol.. As long as its a nudge E I'm ok with it. The euro ensembles cluster outside obx and ac very similar to the gfs to your south. The euro 12z op and the 0z gfs are about 100 miles apart at our latitude But only about 50 mile difference between the gfs and Euro ensemble mean. They are a little closer than you think . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You know why this isnt gonna happen? Im off wed and thursday lol I'm off today thru Wednesday lol.. Watch this thing crush LI and leaves us high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 You guys are going to be fine. Don't look at the precip field it's the hardest equation for a model to solve It's going to be a robust system. Your not getting scraped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z GFS in regards to precip amount didn't change much for us from 18z. Only thing different was it was colder throughout for the coast & a nudge east. The best dynamics were definitely shunted east, and even diminished somewhat within the developing commahead. 700 mb VVs at 00z: vs. 18z: No big deal though. I'm confident in something better than the GFS shows, and if not... hey, two accumulating snowfalls before Thanksgiving is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The best dynamics were definitely shunted east, and even diminished somewhat within the developing commahead. 700 mb VVs at 00z: No big deal though. I'm confident in something better than the GFS shows, and if not... hey, two accumulating snowfalls before Thanksgiving is never a bad thing. The truth.. I can see a blend of the 0z GFS & 12z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT and his Facebook posts make me laugh Wxrisk.com 12 mins · ** ALERT ** 0z MONDAY GFS HAS COME OUT... The MODEL . has a MAJOR SNOW EVENT FOR ALL OF THE I-95 CITIES ...from Richmond to Boston... this solution is BULLSH*T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z Ukmet @ 72 hrs still tucked in nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z Ukmet @ 72 hrs still tucked in nicely... Hey all hudson valley people- hope everyone is well and looks like we are headed back to some winter fun potentially. Nice to see a threat in time for Thanksgiving. How are things looking for us up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Jeez we get smoked this run.. 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Is there a key to those maps sny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Is there a key to those maps sny? I subscribe to the site.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I subscribe to the site.. Yeah, but I meant, what do the colors represent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah, but I meant, what do the colors represent? My bad.. 6hr Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Boom for the interior. Back to bed. Long week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thanks....pretty solid even back into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Having the Euro & UK still inside the benchmark is def a positive for us. Hopefully we can lock in these tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would kill for a Euro/ukmet solution. Just beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would kill for a Euro/ukmet solution. Just beautiful. Welcome back...nice to see another NE PA representative. I'm the one with the house in Lake Como. Definitely prefer an ECM solution rather than the GFS up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Welcome back...nice to see another NE PA representative. I'm the one with the house in Lake Como. Definitely prefer an ECM solution rather than the GFS up there. Are you in BK or Dobbs for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Welcome back...nice to see another NE PA representative. I'm the one with the house in Lake Como. Definitely prefer an ECM solution rather than the GFS up there. Thanks for the warm welcome! It's been awhile since I posted. I remember us discussing Wayne county quite well, truly another planet up there in Nepa, latitude, elevation , just a crazy micro climate there in spots. All of Nepa for that matter. Yes, will be interesting to see what tomorrow's runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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