Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wow, looks like I missed an interesting set of overnight model runs. Time to catch up on some models and forecast discussions I suppose. I hit 14.5F around midnight and never got any lower for some reason. Maybe winds picked up at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Ice on the lakes here already. Amazing for this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Low of 14 here. I'll count on you guys to check out the models and share if you can please. Fall Saturday's are the Holy Day around here, football all day and night long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Wow, looks like I missed an interesting set of overnight model runs. Time to catch up on some models and forecast discussions I suppose. I hit 14.5F around midnight and never got any lower for some reason. Maybe winds picked up at some point? 13.3f for a low here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We need ourselves a good ole fashion winter where we actually track a R/S line. If it snows throughout an event on the coast likes it been doing the past 5 yrs then we fringe. Heres to a winter full of coastal huggers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Ice on the lakes here already. Amazing for this time of year! It's already 2.5" thick in some of the more stagnant areas of my pond. Shame about the impending torch this week... T-day ice skating would have otherwise been a strong possibility, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We need ourselves a good ole fashion winter where we actually track a R/S line. If it snows throughout an event on the coast likes it been doing the past 5 yrs then we fringe. Heres to a winter full of coastal huggers!! As long as the line stays just south and east of me. Thanks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 As long as the line stays just south and east of me. Thanks. Lol lol... Rockland included! Whenever we hear all snow on LI/Coastal NJ that usually spells trouble for the interior. Whatever happened to rain on the coast & snow n/w of 287?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We need ourselves a good ole fashion winter where we actually track a R/S line. If it snows throughout an event on the coast likes it been doing the past 5 yrs then we fringe. Heres to a winter full of coastal huggers!! We've been saying this for years, LOL. One of these years it'll happen again and hopefully we can get BxEngine on our side, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 lol... Rockland included! Whenever we hear all snow on LI/Coastal NJ that usually spells trouble for the interior. Whatever happened to rain on the coast & snow n/w of 287?? I remember as a kid going through the old tolls in Spring Valley on the thruway and that being the changeover spot so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 As we all know 40/70 isn't exactly the benchmark for the interior. Whats your ideal track guys?? Lets hear it. I prefer an ACY to MTP tracking over CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 As we all know 40/70 isn't exactly the benchmark for the interior. Whats your ideal track guys?? Lets hear it. I prefer an ACY to MTP tracking over CC 40/70 use to be fine for all of us but for some reason the last few years its been a very sharpe cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 40/70 use to be fine for all of us but for some reason the last few years its been a very sharpe cutoff. We jackpot when the coast taints. If they stay all snow we get fringed. For the 18 yrs I've been living up in Orange county thats usually been the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Agree that something like 40/73 is probably a more reliable 'benchmark' up here than the 40/70 that SNE reveres. That said, the past decade or so has featured a lot of novelty snowstorms (overrunning events with weak sfc lows, mesoscale bands far removed from low centers, etc) and not a whole lot of old-fashioned, red-meat powerhouse nor'easters, so it's hard for me to be sure what an ideal track would look like these days. For fun, here are surface analyses from the most memorable storms of the past several years: February 2014: February 2013 (Nemo): October 2011 (Octobomb): December 2010 (Boxing Day): February 2010 (the Snowicane): February 2006: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 We jackpot when the coast taints. If they stay all snow we get fringed. For the 18 yrs I've been living up in Orange county thats usually been the theme. yea i understand that, but 40/70 doesnt always guarantee the coast snow. its been an odd few years with the precip field drastically being cutoff to the west. years ago these same tracks had more extensive precip fields. its gotten the point that id rather have a bunch of sw flow events. at least in that inland ares get snow even if it switches we dont have to worry about the sharpe cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Of the aforementioned storms, the Octobomb was the closest I came to jackpotting (regional maximum of 21.6" just a few miles to my north), but again, that was a bit of an unusual storm, and the surface low track wasn't that much closer than Nemo (which royally screwed us all). The difference there was that 2003 was a much stronger and more mature cyclone, so the precip shield was naturally tighter. Boxing Day was nice up here, but better to my south, and the death band in Feb 2006 was obviously about 70 miles too far southeast for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 yea i understand that, but 40/70 doesnt always guarantee the coast snow. its been an odd few years with the precip field drastically being cutoff to the west. years ago these same tracks had more extensive precip fields. its gotten the point that id rather have a bunch of sw flow events. at least in that inland ares get snow even if it switches we dont have to worry about the sharpe cutoffs. I completely agree. SWFEs are usually generous for these parts w/ precip shutting off prior to any legit changeover. Maybe a little zr drizzle or ip at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 February 2010 (the Snowicane): Pure weather porn right there! One of my all time favs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Pure weather porn right there! One of my all time favs Yeah that was nuts, watching that r/s line stop at the Hudson... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yeah that was nuts, watching that r/s line stop at the Hudson... Some of the snow totals on our side of the Hudson were quite impressive. A few towns coming in with 32"+ amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Pure weather porn right there! One of my all time favs One of the more bizarre events I can remember. I think I ended up with several inches of slush here (my grandfather passed away a couple days before the storm, so my focus on the wx was naturally compromised), but it was crazy seeing two feet or more of cement as close as Fishkill and Beacon. The snowbanks were literally glowing blue from the moisture content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 One of the more bizarre events I can remember. I think I ended up with several inches of slush here (my grandfather passed away a couple days before the storm, so my focus on the wx was naturally compromised), but it was crazy seeing two feet or more of cement as close as Fishkill and Beacon. The snowbanks were literally glowing blue from the moisture content. It was such an awkward alignment of the R/S line but those rates were impressive to say the least. Not to mention 10" fell about 24-36 hrs prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 22, 2014 Author Share Posted November 22, 2014 Low of 14 here. I'll count on you guys to check out the models and share if you can please. Fall Saturday's are the Holy Day around here, football all day and night long. Saw on the local news, Walpack, NJ hit 5 F this morning. I reached 15F, ice on the lakes is confirmed. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 models showing possible storm wed ....philly to boston...stay tuned up to a foot ? we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z Euro = Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Hate getting called out for the NW bias in the other thread. That was a fantastic interior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Clearly most of you will not be traveling Thrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro prints out over an inch of liquid for everybody here with no mixing issues near as I can tell. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Seriously Paul. On the hills with a run like that, we have miles to spare East and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z Euro = Boom Gonna be an exciting holiday week. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.