IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 38F with steady rain, and an extremely healthy looking radar upwind. Today is a pretty nice example of how you can get a vast swath of precip on the diffluent side of an upper trough without the need for a strong surface cyclone... Seasons being seasons. This setup in July would have been a quick hitting convective threat with not much else. The 12z models focus the heaviest rain today right over 95. The NAM is well over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Seasons being seasons. This setup in July would have been a quick hitting convective threat with not much else. The 12z models focus the heaviest rain today right over 95. The NAM is well over an inch. Yeah, it all depends on how far north the warm front is able to surge. The NAM has some wicked upward VVels just south of the surface front over LI and CT by mid-evening... definitely wouldn't surprise me if folks had to deal with gusty thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah, it all depends on how far north the warm front is able to surge. The NAM has some wicked upward VVels just south of the surface front over LI and CT by mid-evening... definitely wouldn't surprise me if folks had to deal with gusty thunderstorms. Yeah, definitly possible. Of course I'm hoping it's a hair too far south and east for selfish reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 37.2 w/ rain.. disgusting outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 39 and rain here. I generally love rainy days, but cold rain sucks. Fire up those webcams for later tonight and tomorrow in Buffalo, here's a snippet from the latest AFD (also note the forecast for next week with a couple of warm days possibly leading to flooding): LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM PREVIOUS DATASETS...ANDWILL CONTINUE WITH A HEAVY HANDED SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST...WITH SOMELOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERALHOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SCENARIO MATCHESSEVERAL NEAR RECORD SETTING EVENTS...DECEMBER 2001 TO NAMEONE. TOP 10 EVENTS FOR BUFFALO GENERALLY PUT DOWN 24 INCHES IN24 HRS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED EXTREME GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OFTHE LAKE BAND...KBUF MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT SEE THIS...BUT SEE NOREASON WHY OTHER AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE ABLE TOEXCEED 24 INCHES...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE FIRST EVENT ENDINGSOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ONE ON THURSDAY MAYALSO BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY...500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TOHOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTSACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OFTHE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY.WILL INCREASE FORECAST AMOUNTS A LITTLE...WITH UP TO 3 FEET IN THEMOST HARD HIT AREAS...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ANDSOUTHTOWNS...AND OVER THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVECREATED ABOUT AS TIGHT OF A GRADIENT AS POSSIBLE FROM KBUF TO THENORTHTOWNS...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO AN INCH OR SO INNIAGARA COUNTY.BLIZZARD CONSIDERATIONS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TOPREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH BORDERLINE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVERWESTERN NY...AND A POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO EASTOF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE POTENTIAL SETUP THISAFTERNOON. COMPARISONS TO PREVIOUS NEAR AND VERIFYING LAKE EFFECTBLIZZARDS DO NOT SHARE THE SAME PROFILE...WITH THIS EVENTAPPEARING TO BE CREATING ITS OWN STRONG WINDS WITHOUT AS MUCHSUPPORT ALOFT. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR CUT CASE...NEED SOME MORE TIME TOREVIEW THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 .61 final, a big meh yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 .61 final, a big meh yet again. Yeah, appears we ended up on the subsident side of the frontogenically induced banding to our south. A little surprised that there were no 2"+ reports anywhere in the region (near as I can tell). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 .58 final here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Good day, Temp has dipped to 19F. chilly for the middle of November Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'm hard pressed to see any snow threats right now for us in the n/w areas in the next week... Not a terrible thing, it is only November.... But I can't imagine the wet pattern we are in just turning off, and the cold air week be lurking nearby... Any thoughts? Man it's cold and windy up here today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'm hard pressed to see any snow threats right now for us in the n/w areas in the next week... Not a terrible thing, it is only November.... But I can't imagine the wet pattern we are in just turning off, and the cold air week be lurking nearby... Any thoughts? Man it's cold and windy up here today! IMO, this is the key, its only November, I think I average 1.7" of snow. My bigger concern is that up here it hasn't been a wet pattern, there have been events but they have all been under performers for months now. I'm hoping this changes in a big way up here soon. On another note, some amazing photos coming out of the lake effect bands in the Upstate NY thread, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Low of 22 this morning Currently 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Low of 22 this morning Currently 27 My high was 40 at 12:05am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 My high was 40 at 12:05am 38 @ 12:05am Should be my high for the next 3 days lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just keeps getting colder and colder as the day wears on imby. Very impressive under full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 27/8 right now Thats cold for January let alone Mid-Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 27/8 right now Thats cold for January let alone Mid-Nov Forecast low for KSWF is 15 tonite. Rather impressive for this time of year. Also windy tonite, thats without radiational cooling on a calm night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Haven't made it above 23 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 23/7 right now... Its just straight up cold out there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 Current temp 14F, chilly night. If the breeze slows down, we could dip into the single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Current temp 14F, chilly night. If the breeze slows down, we could dip into the single digits 18/6 here... I think 14-15 might be our limit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 Good day all, Current temp is 12F, not quite the polar vortex #1 or #2 cold, but chilly. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 15 for the low here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Low of 17 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 15.7 for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Good day weather fans, Low this morning was 11 F. High today 27 F Current temp 23F decent chill in the air. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Some slight WAA ahead of the clipper thing over Ontario has allowed temps to creep up a couple degrees. I'm currently sitting at 27.3 (low for today was 16.9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 The photos and videos in the Lake Effect thread are amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 A thing of beauty for the interior... Lets see if it can hold together for 5 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Got Popcorn interior crew... What eye candy overnight on the Euro and Ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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