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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


Animal

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Only reason WWAs are up for the area is cause its still early in the season and the first potential ice event. This event usually never warrants a WWA in January. We are gonna flip to rain fairly quickly. Some lucky souls may see 1" of sn with a little ip/zr on top & that should be mostly confined to the higher spots.

 

 

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I don't think anyone is expecting much more than that

I'm saying the inch or less predicted won't even happen. Starts off with pellets and quickly goes to rain which may briefly freeze on select surfaces .....Not the roads. This will not warrant an advisory in the Husdun Valley or NJ maybe excluding High Point as they ice up pretty good up there when nobody else does.
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Being already socked in clouds there won't be any real drop in temps tonight. We will wet bulb when precip starts, but by the time it gets cold enough to freeze on most surfaces, it will be warming aloft and that will translate down with the rain. Climo this time of year makes these marginal situations extremely difficult to materializ regardless what the models say. Elevation combined with sheltered valley's are the only places with a shot for some ice. Not where most of us live...Maybe Animal at 1400 ft.

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The wildcard is the precip is booking along and there doesn't appear to be an issue with any wasted on Virga . If it can get in here early this evening the atmosphere would support a frozen profile.

 

Agree 100%.. Most WAA precip usually starts ahead of schedule. Add a little CAD to the situation and we could end up with a little more frozen precip. In Nov especially mid Nov anything frozen is a bonus

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Very impressive lake effect event setting up downwind of Erie and Ontario. It's times like these that I really miss Buffalo!

 

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
PEAKING AT AROUND 1400J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET.
SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR A POSSIBILITY AT
TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR LAKE EFFECT
LIGHTNING NOMOGRAM FROM LOCAL RESEARCH DONE BY RSH ALSO SUGGESTS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING OFF BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE
BANDS.

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Very impressive lake effect event setting up downwind of Erie and Ontario. It's times like these that I really miss Buffalo!

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE

PEAKING AT AROUND 1400J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET.

SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING

INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR A POSSIBILITY AT

TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR LAKE EFFECT

LIGHTNING NOMOGRAM FROM LOCAL RESEARCH DONE BY RSH ALSO SUGGESTS A

GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING OFF BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL

BE STRONG ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH

GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE

BANDS.

Sweet! It will be fun to track this.
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