96blizz Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Mt Holly NWS expects snow to develop this evening. Current temp 32F low overnight was 24 F Have a mixed bag forecasted for tonight here. Got down to 24 also. Forecast high is 43 today and currently at 37, might bust on the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 WWA just posted for my area.. Up to an inch, tenth of an inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Only reason WWAs are up for the area is cause its still early in the season and the first potential ice event. This event usually never warrants a WWA in January. We are gonna flip to rain fairly quickly. Some lucky souls may see 1" of sn with a little ip/zr on top & that should be mostly confined to the higher spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Looks like some flakes have been in the air recently.. I see a few have accumulated on my pool tarp. Temp: 36.6f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nobody is getting any snow out of this. A glaze on some surfaces pre dawn but this setup this time of year = no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nobody is getting any snow out of this. A glaze on some surfaces pre dawn but this setup this time of year = no snow I don't think anyone is expecting much more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Taken Fri Morning 8am @ 1100' in Greenville 3" OTG here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I recently moved and I'm sitting at just over 1100' in the shawangunk mountains in ulster county so I'm hoping to see at least the 1" they are calling for before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I don't think anyone is expecting much more than thatI'm saying the inch or less predicted won't even happen. Starts off with pellets and quickly goes to rain which may briefly freeze on select surfaces .....Not the roads. This will not warrant an advisory in the Husdun Valley or NJ maybe excluding High Point as they ice up pretty good up there when nobody else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I recently moved and I'm sitting at just over 1100' in the shawangunk mountains in ulster county so I'm hoping to see at least the 1" they are calling for before the changeover Your location still has you in New Windsor. What town are you in now? In the gunks you should see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Being already socked in clouds there won't be any real drop in temps tonight. We will wet bulb when precip starts, but by the time it gets cold enough to freeze on most surfaces, it will be warming aloft and that will translate down with the rain. Climo this time of year makes these marginal situations extremely difficult to materializ regardless what the models say. Elevation combined with sheltered valley's are the only places with a shot for some ice. Not where most of us live...Maybe Animal at 1400 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Anyone else see DT calling for rain going to snow with maybe 1-2"? I haven't paid much attention the last coupe days, anyone think this is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Anyone else see DT calling for rain going to snow with maybe 1-2"? I haven't paid much attention the last coupe days, anyone think this is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Anyone else see DT calling for rain going to snow with maybe 1-2"? I haven't paid much attention the last coupe days, anyone think this is possible?How often do Ana-front events happen around here? Better chance for some squalls when the true arctic air arrives this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The wildcard is the precip is booking along and there doesn't appear to be an issue with any wasted on Virga . If it can get in here early this evening the atmosphere would support a frozen profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The wildcard is the precip is booking along and there doesn't appear to be an issue with any wasted on Virga . If it can get in here early this evening the atmosphere would support a frozen profile. Agree 100%.. Most WAA precip usually starts ahead of schedule. Add a little CAD to the situation and we could end up with a little more frozen precip. In Nov especially mid Nov anything frozen is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's been "graupeling" here for about 90 minutes on and off. It's nice to see frozen stuff falling in the middle of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's been "graupeling" here for about 90 minutes on and off. It's nice to see frozen stuff falling in the middle of the day Yeah had some flurries earlier this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Your location still has you in New Windsor. What town are you in now? In the gunks you should see something. Im in shawangunk, technically wallkill, just built a house off 208 down past the correctional facility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Im in shawangunk, technically wallkill, just built a house off 208 down past the correctional facilitySo you're UlsterCountySnowZ now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 So you're UlsterCountySnowZ now? Yea dude lmao... Gotta get around to changing that stuff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 So you're UlsterCountySnowZ now? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Very impressive lake effect event setting up downwind of Erie and Ontario. It's times like these that I really miss Buffalo! LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPEPEAKING AT AROUND 1400J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET.SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW IS STRONGLY SUGGESTINGINTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR A POSSIBILITY ATTIMES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR LAKE EFFECTLIGHTNING NOMOGRAM FROM LOCAL RESEARCH DONE BY RSH ALSO SUGGESTS AGOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING OFF BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILLBE STRONG ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITHGUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THEBANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Very impressive lake effect event setting up downwind of Erie and Ontario. It's times like these that I really miss Buffalo! LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE PEAKING AT AROUND 1400J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET. SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR A POSSIBILITY AT TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR LAKE EFFECT LIGHTNING NOMOGRAM FROM LOCAL RESEARCH DONE BY RSH ALSO SUGGESTS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING OFF BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE BANDS. Sweet! It will be fun to track this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Mix of sleet and snow falling Temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 mixed bag here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Cloudy & 35f here.. Curious to see how long we can hold out before we transition to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Started as all snow here... Alittle surprised by that. 35f w/ Lgt Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 38F with steady rain, and an extremely healthy looking radar upwind. Today is a pretty nice example of how you can get a vast swath of precip on the diffluent side of an upper trough without the need for a strong surface cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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