West Point, NY Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Whoa... that's insane. Congrats. I've got an inch and a half in Monroe and it's coming down nice now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Calling it a night. New snow 3.4 inches Temp 32 with light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Calling it a night. New snow 3.4 inches Temp 32 with light snow Nice! Your elevation really helped out. 33f w/ Lgt snow here.. 1" of accumulation here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I thought Animal was the snow miser or something, but I ended up with almost 3" myself! A bit gobsmacked, honestly... I was skeptical of even a coating. Hoping this sets the tone for the rest of the winter. Quick 3 am shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Final total 4.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Nice! Your elevation really helped out. 33f w/ Lgt snow here.. 1" of accumulation here Looks to be around a half inch in vernon valley when I went through earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I had flakes but nothing stuck, low elevation FTL as is tradition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I had flakes but nothing stuck, low elevation FTL as is tradition. I saw that on my drive home last night. You can clearly see accumulation was elevation dependent. The magic number seemed to be 500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I saw that on my drive home last night. You can clearly see accumulation was elevation dependent. The magic number seemed to be 500'. Yeah even down here that was around the number...we didnt accumulate anything besides slush but below my hilltop it was just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Upton: A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE...MORE SNOW ACROSS THEINTERIOR N/W OF NYC AND MORE RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS FORTHIS NEXT PRECIP EVENT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY MAYBE LIMITED QUITE A BIT AND TURN OUT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THANMOS IF PRECIP IS MODERATE TO HEAVY. THIS WOULD MEAN POTENTIAL FORMORE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE TEMPS AT THE COAST EVEN TAKINGTHIS BIAS INTO ACCOUNT WOULD STILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN. TIMINGWILL ALSO BE IMPERATIVE AS MORE PRECIP AT NIGHT WOULD TRANSLATE TOMORE SNOW EVEN AT THE COAST.THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYTIME FRAME AS MODELS MAY VARY WITH THE TRACK OF THE WEAK LOW AND WITHITS CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIFFERENCES WITH THERAIN/SNOW LINE AND AMOUNTS. WITH THE MODELS CURRENT OUTPUT...ITLOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MUCH LESS AT THE COAST...WHICH AGAIN LOOKSTO BE MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TOO WE COULD SEE A WINTRYMIX AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK ANDSTRENGTH OF THE LOW...LEFT AS EITHER RAIN OR SNOW IN TERMS OF PRECIPTYPES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Upton: A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE...MORE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF NYC AND MORE RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS FOR THIS NEXT PRECIP EVENT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY MAY BE LIMITED QUITE A BIT AND TURN OUT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN MOS IF PRECIP IS MODERATE TO HEAVY. THIS WOULD MEAN POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE TEMPS AT THE COAST EVEN TAKING THIS BIAS INTO ACCOUNT WOULD STILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN. TIMING WILL ALSO BE IMPERATIVE AS MORE PRECIP AT NIGHT WOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE SNOW EVEN AT THE COAST. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS MAY VARY WITH THE TRACK OF THE WEAK LOW AND WITH ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIFFERENCES WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND AMOUNTS. WITH THE MODELS CURRENT OUTPUT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MUCH LESS AT THE COAST...WHICH AGAIN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TOO WE COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...LEFT AS EITHER RAIN OR SNOW IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPES. This threat is still alive. Hoping for some positve model trends starting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 I saw that on my drive home last night. You can clearly see accumulation was elevation dependent. The magic number seemed to be 500'. I was up near Crystal Rn Mall in the Middletown area and nothing was on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I was up near Crystal Springs Mall in the Middletown area and nothing was on the ground. Crystal run I think u meant.. Yeah that area is 450-500' in elevation. Pretty much all of 17m from Chester to Middletown was snowless but once u climbed in elevation u almost immediately saw accumulation. Like I said earlier 500' was the magic number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Photo of the dog this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Crystal run I think u meant.. Yeah that area is 450-500' in elevation. Pretty much all of 17m from Chester to Middletown was snowless but once u climbed in elevation u almost immediately saw accumulation. Like I said earlier 500' was the magic number Yep, I saw on my drive in that I missed accumulations by about 100 feet in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Yep, I saw on my drive in that I missed accumulations by about 100 feet in elevation. 2 inches at 850 feet. Dogs happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Just beautiful out there this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Just beautiful out there this morning Wow that sure is an amazing sight in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Good Day weather fans, sunday night Monday threat is here. Cold morning for the valley locations. See Walpack,NJ dipped to 15F & Sussex, NJ to 19 this morning Mt Holly NWS discusses a possible adv/ watch for the Poconos and Sussex County. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... **WINTER WX EVENT FOR A PORTION OF E PA AND NNJ SUN NIGHT-MON THEN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY** 500 MB: COMPLEX +PNA PATTERN WITH TWO SHORT WAVES SUNDAY MORNING IN MID N.AMERICA (NA). THIS EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN EASTERN NA MONDAY (4 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE GREAT LAKES) WITH THE LEAD MORE SOUTHERLY SHORT WAVE SCOOPING A WET GULF COAST SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY NEWD. THE PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING LEAVING A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER E NA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR VORTEX SLIPPING NORTHWARD WHERE IT BELONGS NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT EXISTS...ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE (-2 SD) IS IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH ROTATES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THIS MIGHT MINIMIZE THE STILL FORECAST MODERATION OF THE COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES: 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD HERE WEDNESDAY (AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) THEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY PENDING THE OUTCOME OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. HAZARDS: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCH/ADVISORY MATERIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY POCONOS AND FAR NW NJ. GALE PROBABLE TUESDAY ALL COASTAL WATERS. NO HAZARD HEADLINES ISSUED ATTM DUE TO MAYBE BEING A PERIOD OR 2 TOO SOON OF NORMAL AND ALSO COLLABORATION BOTH WITH ADJACENT OFFICES TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE PREPONDERANCE OF NON NCEP MODELS BEING WARMER. THE 06Z GFS OPERATIONAL CONTINUES TO RIDE THE THEME OF A HIGH END ADVY OR LOW END WATCH/WARNING SCENARIO FOR THE POCONOS REGION. IT ACTUALLY IS COLDER IN 2M SFC-975MB TEMPS FOR MONDAY. FUTURE GFS MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BACK OFF THE HEAVY DOSE OF QPF AND COLD SCENARIO TO AVOID A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WINTER WX EVENT NE PA AND NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Only got down to 21 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Only got down to 21 here. We hit 22F, temp has climbed to 32F the past 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 25 for the low here. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY655 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2014 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS APPROACHFROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGHAPPROACHES WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE. THE MERIODIONAL FLOW ISINCREASING WITH TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS MOVING INTO THEREGION. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MORE PRECIP IS TIED TO WARMAIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND MONDAY NIGHT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTWILL BE PASSING TO THE EAST AND ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL BELINGERING IN THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY COLD AIRADVECTION.OVERALL IN ALL...PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN AT THE COAST AND A WINTRY MIXINLAND AT TIMES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ANDPERHAPS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. FOR MONDAYAFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE RAIN. THERE ISUNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND MODEL CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND MAGNITUDEOF THE LOW WILL HAVE RESULTING CHANGES IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 21.9 here. Slightly surprised I didn't drop below 20, but that should come in due course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Animal and Julian, and anyone else who got accumulation, did your snow make it through yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Much of mine did, esp in shady areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Animal and Julian, and anyone else who got accumulation, did your snow make it through yesterday? Yes, still around 2-3 inches in the yard. Just surveyed from a window. I do see some grass patches in certain areas. Still mostly all snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Animal and Julian, and anyone else who got accumulation, did your snow make it through yesterday?I'm still covered overr 80 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Animal and Julian, and anyone else who got accumulation, did your snow make it through yesterday? Most of it melted away, but there are some residual patches, and some sheltered evergreens are still holding onto some snow. I'm on a south-facing hill and usually lose snowpack faster than my surroundings. There was actually a pretty uniform layer of ice on my pond this morning, for the first time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I probably would've hit the teens if I had any snowcover. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z models runs look toasty Sunday night Monday as in warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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