snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z GFS @ 42... Not a bad look for us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Im assuming you meant sub- zero Sitting at a balmy 12.7f here Heat wave here 15.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM is almost is over 1.0+" qpf for most here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 IL was saying it pretty much runs along 287 east of the river and 84 west. Good to see things trending a touch cooler with both the NAM and GFS tonight. One might argue that the RGEM was as well. The Euro has been the colder outlier, so maybe this means the models are converging on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM is almost is over 1.0+" qpf for most here The map in the other thread has a lollipop of 1.5 just to our north that is interesting. Could be from oragraphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not sure what's going on with the model analysis over in the other thread, but the mix line went south by about 25 miles this run. It was previously touching southern Dutchess and Ulster, now it's south of Rockland and Putnam at hour 42. Only have 6 hour increments as of now, but that appears to be the warmest I can see. That's exactly what I said but I was ignored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Noaa just increase my point and click totals, 9-16" Edit: apparently they changed it right back lmao My pint and click said 3-7 sun night and 5-9 Monday Now it says 3-7 and 4-8 again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Forecast low 12, current temp 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At first glance the ukmet looks pretty similar to 12z, no noticeable north trend at least with the surface low track. It seems like the models are trending toward a more strung out low pressure as redevelopment occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I feel like I'm in a good spot up here, my storm warning says 8-16 but my point and click says 4-8 for sunday night and then doesn't even have a total for Monday, just says heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At first glance the ukmet looks pretty similar to 12z, no noticeable north trend at least with the surface low track. It seems like the models are trending toward a more strung out low pressure as redevelopment occurs. It's south, but still the northern outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Im assuming you meant sub- zero Err, um... nope, it's that new freezing point of water that all the cool kids are talking about. 1.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice depiction of the 700 mb dry slot that some might have to deal with, though it is the NAM at 42 hours so wouldn't worry just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice depiction of the 700 mb dry slot that some might have to deal with, though it is the NAM at 42 hours so wouldn't worry just yet. It really stinks that the mid-level centers have trended so far north (the 700 mb circulation is basically over Watertown on the NAM). My call for lollis to 18" had some merit back when we were counting on sitting just NW of the 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z GFS... MGJ -- .96" SWF -- .94" FWN -- 1.01" POU -- .89" HPN -- .97" ( Sleet mix) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It really stinks that the mid-level centers have trended so far north (the 700 mb circulation is basically over Watertown on the NAM). My call for lollis to 18" had some merit back when we were counting on sitting just NW of the 850 low. Yeah north trend hasn't helped much and the mid-level dynamics look a little less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 thought is the euro folds north again at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 thought is the euro folds north again at this point? I would expect it to, that would give a good tight cluster and concesnsus on where this things going minus the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I would expect it to, that would give a good tight cluster and concesnsus on where this things going minus the ukmet dude the model is like the met DT, they stink this year. Ha I thought last year sucked for busted snow calls. Anything less than 6 inches with this storm, blows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I would expect it to, that would give a good tight cluster and concesnsus on where this things going minus the ukmet Considering the ukmet has led the way with this storm (and the last two storms) and looks identical to the 00z GFS, I'd put more stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 dude the model is like the met DT, they stink this year. Ha Yea who knows... It wouldn't surprise me if they were all wrong and the euro went south or held and was correct either... Gotta suck being a paid met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Considering the ukmet has led the way with this storm (and the last two storms) and looks identical to the 00z GFS, I'd put more stock in it. Ukmet was much further north than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 euro time baby! lets see how she blows tonight! Yes..i typed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 9.3f out there... Winter kicked in big time this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 euro time baby! lets see how she blows tonight! Yes..i typed this The euro bumped north and now looks just like nam/gfs/ukmet.. definitely a consensus. Euro has been pretty terrible in the medium range as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The euro bumped north and now looks just like nam/gfs/ukmet.. definitely a consensus. Euro has been pretty terrible in the medium range as of late. On the NAM/GFS the battleground seems to be NNJ/LHV ( Westchester/Rockland). Does it show the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro looks to have 10-12" for most north of the NY/NJ line... Once into Jersey the totals drop quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On the NAM/GFS the battleground seems to be NNJ/LHV ( Westchester/Rockland). Does it show the same? yes they briefly touch 0C at 850, not sure at what level the warm push maximizes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro looks to have 10-12" for most north of the NY/NJ line... Once into Jersey the totals drop quickly going to bed. i will let you know when it rains monday Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 going to bed. i will let you know when it rains monday Best Fire up that generator brother.. Gonna be a hell of an ice storm down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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