snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The srefs kept coming in wetter and wetter the closer we got to the blizzard for our area lol including nyc Cause it follows the NAM and if I'm not mistaken that model had us getting 3' while the storm was underway.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Cause it follows the NAM and if I'm not mistaken that model had us getting 3' while the storm was underway.. lol Nam just kept us in all snow at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snywx can u explain my post in the model thread about the nam being so fast with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam just kept us in all snow at 00zYes but no one looks at the NAM anymore...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam just kept us in all snow at 00z Yeah, the NAM looked little weaker with less WAA.. good for keeping the sleet line south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yes but no one looks at the NAM anymore... LOL It's led the way since the beginning of this storm, first to tick North... If GFS brings mix south people will take nam serious.. 1 major bust doesn't mean we should stop considering.. Nams wheelhouse has always been within 48hrs... One big bust shouldn't change that, just my 2 cents but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah, the NAM looked little weaker with less WAA.. good for keeping the sleet line south. I think it was the opposite. The WAA was much stronger, that eastern precip shield looked outstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snywx can u explain my post in the model thread about the nam being so fast with this storm Its a SWFE... most end ahead of schedule. They usually come in like a wall and end with some drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Its a SWFE... most end ahead of schedule. They usually come in like a wall and end with some drizzle.So u think the nam is correct coming and going less than 12hrs? Cause GFS is almost 18hrs of snow. Just a big diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's led the way since the beginning of this storm, first to tick North... If GFS brings mix south people will take nam serious.. 1 major bust doesn't mean we should stop considering.. Nams wheelhouse has always been within 48hrs... One big bust shouldn't change that, just my 2 cents but we will seeI'm totally with you, all of the models should be considered but since the blizzard bust it seems there are some who say they won't look at this model or that model...until it runs and then everyone is looking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So u think the nam is correct coming and going less than 12hrs? Cause GFS is almost 18hrs of snow. Just a big diff 6-12" event... Less south more north. Probably starts around 0z Monday and ends late morning on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6-12" event... Less south more north. Probably starts around 0z Monday and ends late morning on Monday. I agree with this at this point in time and I think I'll see some pingers at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm totally with you, all of the models should be considered but since the blizzard bust it seems there are some who say they won't look at this model or that model...until it runs and then everyone is looking again.Yea I think they're just sore... I can't even count the number of times the GFS has failed miserably on a nor'easter while the euro and nam score big.. The nam may have been over amped in those storms but we knew that was its biased.. And yet the GFS does well with one storm and now it's the bible of models lmaoWish casting at its finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 6-12" event... Less south more north. Probably starts around 0z Monday and ends late morning on Monday. i expect at a min 8 max 14 historical tracks say i get bombed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I agree with this at this point in time and I think I'll see some pingers at some point. Yeah pingers are def in our future. I do think they will be short lived though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah pingers are def in our future. I do think they will be short lived though. I'm praying this GFS takes a dive with that mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 5.9F and rapidly falling despite a forecast low of 11. Gotta believe I'll go sub-freezing before clouds move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 5.9F and rapidly falling despite a forecast low of 11. Gotta believe I'll go sub-freezing before clouds move in. Im assuming you meant sub- zero Sitting at a balmy 12.7f here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam looks like it held serve to me...mix line maybe 25 miles south Which may matter for you guys in orange county...only 5 more runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 5.9F and rapidly falling despite a forecast low of 11. Gotta believe I'll go sub-freezing before clouds move in. down to 7 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam looks like it held serve to me...mix line maybe 25 miles south Which may matter for you guys in orange county...only 5 more runs to go nothig has really changed. its noise. track is set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z RGEM.. Still flips many over to pingers here in the HV from 14z-18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah pingers are def in our future. I do think they will be short lived though.Not only short lived, but I could see a mix of pingers and snow and not go totally sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z RGEM.. Still flips many over to pingers here in the HV from 14z-18z what hr is this model. looks like heavy, heavy snow. mix line around 5 miles wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So u think the nam is correct coming and going less than 12hrs? Cause GFS is almost 18hrs of snow. Just a big diff 0z RGEM has this as a 20-22hr event.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 what hr is this model. looks like heavy, heavy snow. mix line around 5 miles wide 11z= 6am Monday morning It has you flipping to a mix around 7am and the rest of us around 8-9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 my final call will be using the 0 z gfs. it live.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 WPC discarded the 12z GEM as an outlier. Not sure what'll happen with this one. Still looks like a nice hit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not sure what's going on with the model analysis over in the other thread, but the mix line went south by about 25 miles this run. It was previously touching southern Dutchess and Ulster, now it's south of Rockland and Putnam at hour 42. Only have 6 hour increments as of now, but that appears to be the warmest I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 IL was saying it pretty much runs along 287 east of the river and 84 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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