Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good day weather fans, Current temp - 19F Low this morning was 2 Snow depth - 9-10 inches Watch for 10-14 inches. My early call is 8-10 locally and we mix briefly with sleet at some point. Little nervous to see the afternoon and night models tonight. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Our surface temps don't get above 20f for most the storm I have little to no knowledge of the microphysics of snow, though I do plan on learning more, but I posted a link earlier that uses the Cobb method to generate a snow ratio forecast. Here's the 12z GFS for KPOU just for conversation sake: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kpou As you can see, ratios during the height of the storm are actually a little below 10:1 at times. There's also a link to the description of the Cobb method on the page. In any event, I'm not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I do see it mentioned at times by forecasters. Does anyone know of a good tutorial or site to learn more about this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have little to no knowledge of the microphysics of snow, though I do plan on learning more, but I posted a link earlier that uses the Cobb method to generate a snow ratio forecast. Here's the 12z GFS for KPOU just for conversation sake: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kpou As you can see, ratios during the height of the storm are actually a little below 10:1 at times. There's also a link to the description of the Cobb method on the page. In any event, I'm not entirely sure how accurate it is, but I do see it mentioned at times by forecasters. Does anyone know of a good tutorial or site to learn more about this stuff? This is a nice little tutorial, might need to login to view it though. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/snowdensity/from_mm_to_cm.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hope this turns out in our favor, so far so good more than last week's bust. What's it looking like in new Paltz area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hope this turns out in our favor, so far so good more than last week's bust. What's it looking like in new Paltz area ? Some mountains. Good bars. College chicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man what a difference. Here in Florida and it feels like I fast forwarded 3-4 months. Sunny and mildly humid with temps in the 70s. Amazing to leave an arctic world and enter a semi tropical one in 2-3 hours. Rooting for our area on Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Some mountains. Good bars. College chicks. Haha I go to school there. Wondering about accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's hope nams not right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here we go men & women. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's hope nams not right lol Quite a dramatic shift in one run. Take it with a grain of salt for now. Haha I go to school there. Wondering about accumulations I'd go with 6-10" as of now. Have you been to Mexicali Blue? Love that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Let's hope nams not right lol I will never look at the model for a forecast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM still gives lots of snow to those from 84 northward. I think most knew that the mix line would approach Rockland/Westchester/W passic counties. If it approaches Orange county it will prob be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM still gives lots of snow to those from 84 northward. I think most knew that the mix line would approach Rockland/Westchester/W passic counties. If it approaches Orange county it will prob be short lived. 1st image is hr 42. mix line over my house. Looks like a serious dump prior 2nd image total qpf. Hope is not all lost, unless there is another big jump north tonight. Euro, Canadian etc still bark big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Quite a dramatic shift in one run. Take it with a grain of salt for now. I'd go with 6-10" as of now. Have you been to Mexicali Blue? Love that place. Mexicali blue is on point, I live on Main Street. 6-10" sounds good, a nice run of the mill SECS but unless continue to trend way more north than could be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lmao... Warmest nam run comes in and winter storm warnings for 10-14 are issued (I know they're not related) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'd only be concerned if the 00z euro/cmc look anything like the 18z nam. In the past models have tried to dig the northern stream trough too much in the 36 hour range leading to a nw shift, only to come back se a bit as the event unfolds. Of course after the last storm it would be fitting that when we need a se shift it comes nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will never look at the model for a forecast again. Oh that any of us could possibly have enough self control to do that! If I had a nickel for every time I said that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Oh that any of us could possibly have enough self control to do that! If I had a nickel for every time I said that..... Yea, I was just thinking to myself did I really just post NAM qpf amounts. WTF is wrong with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1st image is hr 42. mix line over my house. Looks like a serious dump prior 2nd image total qpf. Hope is not all lost, unless there is another big jump north tonight. Euro, Canadian etc still bark big snows. Your latitude hurts you in these setups. Elevation doesn't help one bit unless you are over 5000'. You might have yourself quite an ice storm down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Your latitude hurts you in these setups. Elevation doesn't help one bit unless you are over 5000'. You might have yourself quite an ice storm down there Got a warning for 8-14 inches. I will ride it to the end. Seems like a reasonable call. Yea i may not be as north as some of the posters here, but I have to work with what I got As noted, I am perfectly fine with a thump over to sleet. I will clean up in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mexicali blue is on point, I live on Main Street. 6-10" sounds good, a nice run of the mill SECS but unless continue to trend way more north than could be more. Definitely could be more. NWS is saying 8-16" for Ulster, I'm just going a bit more conservative for now given the uncertainty with BL temps and the progressive nature of the system (and the fact that I was burned on Monday night!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Albany just put out a warning for 8-16" across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 The latest best guess from mt holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM didn't look that bad to me...got the 850 IP/SN line up to near POU, but looking at northward model trends from last night would project a warmer outcome by 0z tonight. Better than too far south like the last storm I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM didn't look that bad to me...got the 850 IP/SN line up to near POU, but looking at northward model trends from last night would project a warmer outcome by 0z tonight. Better than too far south like the last storm I guess. Due you should get crushed in kingston,, unless you get some weird downsloping effect from the mountains east and west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Due you should get crushed in kingston,, unless you get some weird downsloping effect from the mountains east and west of you. That's never totally out of the question lol...don't know how many storms have looked great on modeling only to turn out 50-60% less than expected because of some unfortunate wind direction at the height of the precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's never totally out of the question lol...don't know how many storms have looked great on modeling only to turn out 50-60% less than expected because of some unfortunate wind direction at the height of the precip... Pretty sure it's an easterly flow that would lead to more downsloping for the valley, though I think that's more evident the farther north you go. I will say that, for whatever reason, final snowfall tallies almost always seem less than originally forecasted, at least in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is a really nice hit for is up here, maybe slightly better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's pretty evident today that the battleground should be setting up somewhere in the lower or mid Hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is a really nice hit for is up here, maybe slightly better than 12z you should get crushed. Expect the mix line to creep to just south of i 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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