snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS has sig increased precip amounts for the area... Entire area is 1"+ w/ a few areas 1.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You have 45 and 51? I have 54.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is 12-14 area wide north of rockland at 10:1 ratios... Some people could see some big surprises depending on where this bands set up.. My guess is Monroe out to Middletown, the snowhouse of Orange County.. Always makes out in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS has now shifted the battleground N to Rockland/Westchester.. NYC looks to flip to all liquid for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z NAM/GFS combo is 12-15" for areas north of the NY/NJ state line & north of Rockland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Guess ill spend my storm in the nyc thread. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Guess ill spend my storm in the nyc thread. lol lol.. Now I know you've lost it.. I see 8-10" for you in Rockland. Are you off Sun-Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol.. Now I know you've lost it.. I see 8-10" for you in Rockland. Are you off Sun-Mon? Sun. Ill PM you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Boom! She's a beaut, Clark...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is another monster hit.. Everyone in rockland stays snow... Big CCB snows 987mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is another monster hit.. Everyone in rockland stays snow... Big CCB snows 987mb low Stop toying with my emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is another monster hit.. Everyone in rockland stays snow... Big CCB snows 987mb low I get the feeling folks are underplaying the potential for conveyor belt dynamics to come into play. A 985 mb low south of LI isn't your grandma's SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Stop toying with my emotions. You have emotions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Backend snows and CCB banding would last into Monday night.... GGEM is 15+ for most in this subgroup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We just got NAM'd by the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You have emotions? Only about snow. Otherwise im robotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We just got NAM'd by the GEM cmc_snow_acc_nyc_12.png Some could see 20" if that verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As we continue to look over all the models in anticipation of a good dumping on top of our decent snowcover we can't look past what an awesome winter day it is out there. Deep blue skies, cold temps, and wind whipping snow about. This scene is common in my hood today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro is 12-15" verbatim taking ratios into account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As we continue to look over all the models in anticipation of a good dumping on top of our decent snowcover we can't look past what an awesome winter day it is out there. Deep blue skies, cold temps, and wind whipping snow about. This scene is common in my hood today. Nice. Winds are pretty calm up here, but at these temps, I'm not too upset about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro is 12-15" verbatim taking ratios into account Still not convinced our ratios will be that impressive. As of now, I'd go with 7-11" across the region with isolated spots to 13-14", the higher totals as you go farther north. I think the Capital District should be aided more by higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still not convinced our ratios will be that impressive. As of now, I'd go with 7-11" across the region with isolated spots to 13-14", the higher totals as you go farther north. I think the Capital District should be aided more by higher ratios. Some of the 12z GFS ensembles are pretty amped, almost taint all the way up to ALB or a brief period. They don't have much support right now unless the euro ensembles come way north but it's still somewhat concerning. I like where I am for this one but we still have 36 hours of adjustment left.. north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still not convinced our ratios will be that impressive. As of now, I'd go with 7-11" across the region with isolated spots to 13-14", the higher totals as you go farther north. I think the Capital District should be aided more by higher ratios. Our surface temps don't get above 20f for most the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Highest temps get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Our surface temps don't get above 20f for most the stormSurface temps aren't going to affect the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Surface temps aren't going to affect the ratios. Exactly.. And if the mix line is nearby dont expect anything more than 10:1 unless you are in a nice band where ratios can drastically change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As recently as last week they were showing a "ratio calculator" on TWC with one variable: surface temp. I know broadcast meteorologists often strive for simplicity, but the myth that snow-liquid ratios depend on surface temperatures needs to be stopped. Remember, freezing rain at 15F would yield ratios of 1:1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As recently as last week they were showing a "ratio calculator" on TWC with one variable: surface temp. I know broadcast meteorologists often strive for simplicity, but the myth that snow-liquid ratios depend on surface temperatures needs to be stopped. Remember, freezing rain at 15F would yield ratios of 1:1... I was going to post the same thing, seeing freezing rain with temps in the teens which is frustrating as hell when it happens in a winter with little snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Still not convinced our ratios will be that impressive. As of now, I'd go with 7-11" across the region with isolated spots to 13-14", the higher totals as you go farther north. I think the Capital District should be aided more by higher ratios. I vaguely recall a "rule" that even if you have ideal saturation and lift intersecting a deep DGZ, your ratios will be only be as good as the maximum temp in the column allows. That is, if it's -4C at 850 mb, dendrites falling through the relative "warm layer" are liable to revert to a crystal structure similar to having formed at -4C. Anybody know if there's any truth to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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