Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Even with an outlier solution like what the UKMET just showed, everybody down to HPN would probably make out with minimal p-type issues (and it has like 1.25" QPF for everybody). This is a good airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z GGEM is 30-40mm of snow for all here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euros another big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro looks good, 0.75"+ across the region. To my untrained eyes, it looked like there was an earlier transfer to the coast on this run, hopefully that doesn't have any major effects on us down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z Euro looks drier for us up here.. Would have to keep an eye on that tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z Euro looks drier for us up here.. Would have to keep an eye on that tomorrow. Yea it was but track was great, we shall see how tomorrow's runs go, night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z Euro looks drier for us up here.. Would have to keep an eye on that tomorrow. Probably just placement of banding features once the low gets going off the coast. The outer band was displaced a little further NW this run. I wouldn't worry at this point in time, the track looks great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just got home from watching a friend play a gig, 2-3 foot snowbanks along 211 and 416 along the open fields. NYSDOT out there now pushing the banks back as far as they can from the road. I blasted through a couple 6" drifts right across the park road here. Down to 10 degrees with the wind still blowing despite the advisory being dropped. Deep deep deep winter out there fellas and you're saying there's more to come...bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Im expecting DT first call map to show 18-24" w/ lollies to 30" lol.. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/812155652165028:0It looks like all of us in the 8-12" range with a number of us in the 12"+ area. Take it for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Under a Winter Storm Watch now for Monday. The possibility of seven inches or more of snow exists. (Binghamton always lowballs this number early on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 looks like a cliff jumpers rebound...good inland hit.....buckle up fellas, take off your parachutes and let her rip...good morning hudson valley jackpot...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 why so speechless? I can Dream can't I ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man, the SREF's suck. I don't even know why I look at them, they change dramatically every 6 hours it seems. In any event, the most recent run definitely shows an increased chance of mixing in our area after a front end thump of snow. It seemed like the north trend had mostly stopped, but we'll see what happens with the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Under a Winter Storm Watch now for Monday. The possibility of seven inches or more of snow exists. (Binghamton always lowballs this number early on). Thats just the criteria needed for them to issue a WSW ( 7" or more).. Sullivan is probably in for 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/812155652165028:0 It looks like all of us in the 8-12" range with a number of us in the 12"+ area. Take it for what it's worth. Not quite what I thought his first guess would be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Will miss this storm which could be our biggest so far. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That RGEM is weather porn for us at 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That RGEM is weather porn for us at 48hr It sure is... Im sure the GGEM will show something special like it did for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It sure is... Im sure the GGEM will show something special like it did for 0z The 4k nam confuses me.. It has snow arriving between 39-42hr, and completely out before hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Going by the NAM, looks like our snow ratios may not be that high, despite the cold surface temperatures. Around 11:1 when the heaviest snow is falling between 10-14 z. Might be better just a bit to the north of us. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kpou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 4k nam confuses me.. It has snow arriving between 39-42hr, and completely out before hr 51 These SWFE's always move in and out faster than modeled. I think we get a 6-8 hour period of moderate to occasionally heavy snow before it quickly shuts down. I'm not sure the coastal will get going in time to throw any meaningful snow back our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It sure is... Im sure the GGEM will show something special like it did for 0z Are we talking hardcore porn or showtime afterdark stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is pretty far north with the fz line well into rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are we talking hardcore porn or showtime afterdark stuff.... lol.. showtime is weaksauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is pretty far north with the fz line well into rockland The last thing I'm worried about is the freezing line. Tight thermal gradient will just enhance snowfall rates. You have to smell the rain to get the best rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's far enough north, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The last thing I'm worried about is the freezing line. Tight thermal gradient will just enhance snowfall rates. You have to smell the rain to get the best rates We're fine, but parts of NNJ, westchester, and rockland should be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We're fine, but parts of NNJ, westchester, and rockland should be concerned Those areas were always on the fence.. Even there the mix is temporary as everything collapses south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS @ 48 ( Crushed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS @ 48 ( Crushed) You have 45 and 51? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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