IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks pretty accurate to me... What do you guys think? 8.5" IMBY Looks good to me, I think I'm around 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks pretty accurate to me... What do you guys think? 8.5" IMBY I will measure tomorrow, but we look to have atleast a foot on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Checking in from DC because I saw some nice runs this area. Hopefully you guys can cash in. I'm hoping to do some snowshoeing and/or cross country skiing in the area this season so I'm rooting for you to build up a base. Good luck! Thanks! I was really pulling for you guys in this one. It looked like it might turn out decent for you at one point a couple days ago. Hopefully the next one comes through for your region. Fahnestock State Park in Putnam County, NY has some very nice groomed cross country and snowshoe trails. Some decent options to eat around there too, Round Up Texas BBQ on Route 9 in Cold Spring is my favorite BBQ place in the region. The owner is from Texas and the smoking is done in a small trailer on site. Lots of character. You also aren't far from either Beacon or Peekskill, two great choices if you like craft beer, etc. Beacon has The Hop which is a craft beer tasting room/cafe, and in Peekskill, Peekskill Brewery is putting out some amazing brews and there's also Birdsall House which has outstanding food and a great selection of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Jeez its freaking cold out there... Wind is howling & its 16.2f and dropping.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z Snowfall mean has increased slightly from 15z for POU... 15z -- 10.0" 21z -- 10.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Perhaps I forgot to take my snow goggles off, but I don't think it's out of the question for someone around here to pick up 18" on Monday. We always do well with SWFEs, so we can probably count on a nice thump with the initial WAA ascent. I'm very confident that at some point the precip shield will become more banded in nature as the low starts to intensify on reaching the coast. That area of high pressure over Ontario is in a perfect place IMO to really tighten the thermal gradient. Looking at 700 mb temps, frontogenesis overhead should be through the roof, barring any major shifts in the tracks of the mid-level circulations. Indeed, GFS QPF graphics hint at a commahead building back to the SW long after the big slug of overrunning precip is gone. The DGZ doesn't look huge, but the strongest lift does appear to stay in or near the growth zone. In other words, I think we capitalize on our bread-and-butter SWFE snows and then have an opportunity to avail of rapidly intensifying mid-level dynamics. The best of both worlds. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Perhaps I forgot to take my snow goggles off, but I don't think it's out of the question for someone around here to pick up 18" on Monday. We always do well with SWFEs, so we can probably count on a nice thump with the initial WAA ascent. I'm very confident that at some point the precip shield will become more banded in nature as the low starts to intensify on reaching the coast. That area of high pressure over Ontario is in a perfect place IMO to really tighten the thermal gradient. Looking at 700 mb temps, frontogenesis overhead should be through the roof, barring any major shifts in the tracks of the mid-level circulations. Indeed, GFS QPF graphics hint at a commahead building back to the SW long after the big slug of overrunning precip is gone. The DGZ doesn't look huge, but the strongest lift does appear to stay in or near the growth zone. In other words, I think we capitalize on our bread-and-butter SWFE snows and then have an opportunity to avail of rapidly intensifying mid-level dynamics. The best of both worlds. Thoughts? I completely agree.. There is gonna be an area around here that is gonna experience extremely heavy snow. On the 18z NAM at one point it has northern Orange around 10f while parts of Monmouth county are in the 40's.. What a gradient! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Perhaps I forgot to take my snow goggles off, but I don't think it's out of the question for someone around here to pick up 18" on Monday. We always do well with SWFEs, so we can probably count on a nice thump with the initial WAA ascent. I'm very confident that at some point the precip shield will become more banded in nature as the low starts to intensify on reaching the coast. That area of high pressure over Ontario is in a perfect place IMO to really tighten the thermal gradient. Looking at 700 mb temps, frontogenesis overhead should be through the roof, barring any major shifts in the tracks of the mid-level circulations. Indeed, GFS QPF graphics hint at a commahead building back to the SW long after the big slug of overrunning precip is gone. The DGZ doesn't look huge, but the strongest lift does appear to stay in or near the growth zone. In other words, I think we capitalize on our bread-and-butter SWFE snows and then have an opportunity to avail of rapidly intensifying mid-level dynamics. The best of both worlds. Thoughts? Well said. Things look to come together nicely as long as the north trend stops soon. Too much further north and we're talking mid-level dry slot for the southernmost areas. In the past, SWFE's running along a strong baroclinic zone seemed to generate impressive frontogenetical banding well north of the surface low, so the current track (or even a tick south) looks pretty ideal for the lower hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Perhaps I forgot to take my snow goggles off, but I don't think it's out of the question for someone around here to pick up 18" on Monday. We always do well with SWFEs, so we can probably count on a nice thump with the initial WAA ascent. I'm very confident that at some point the precip shield will become more banded in nature as the low starts to intensify on reaching the coast. That area of high pressure over Ontario is in a perfect place IMO to really tighten the thermal gradient. Looking at 700 mb temps, frontogenesis overhead should be through the roof, barring any major shifts in the tracks of the mid-level circulations. Indeed, GFS QPF graphics hint at a commahead building back to the SW long after the big slug of overrunning precip is gone. The DGZ doesn't look huge, but the strongest lift does appear to stay in or near the growth zone. In other words, I think we capitalize on our bread-and-butter SWFE snows and then have an opportunity to avail of rapidly intensifying mid-level dynamics. The best of both worlds. Thoughts? Man, you sound like a pro met! I am impressed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z NAM is as far north as you want this to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know everyone apparently hates it but it's been pretty consistent so I'll share anyway, nam is slightly further north but also stronger, R/S line makes it to southern rockland nams 1.0"+ for most the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know everyone apparently hates it but it's been pretty consistent so I'll share anyway, nam is slightly further north but also stronger, R/S line makes it to southern rockland nams 1.0"+ for most the area The north trend can stop now, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The north trend can stop now, thank you. Your def safe in pough town, it's far south orange and rockland that wanna keep a close eye over the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z NAM @ 60... Man look at that gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know everyone apparently hates it but it's been pretty consistent so I'll share anyway, nam is slightly further north but also stronger, R/S line makes it to southern rockland nams 1.0"+ for most the area Mix line looks to make it to my house and then it crashed back south. Hopefully it does not continue to pop north tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z NAM @ 60... Man look at that gradient. wow, there must be some real nice VV's along that boundary.. isentropic lift ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.25" line makes its way into Orange county on this run.. With those rates/banding someone is gonna pull off an impressive total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.25" line makes its way into Orange county on this run.. With those rates/banding someone is gonna pull off an impressive total. Im screwed i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.25" line makes its way into Orange county on this run.. With those rates/banding someone is gonna pull off an impressive total. Qpf is decent for sure. Should be a heck of a storm. If anyone stays all snow, a foot seems possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Im screwed i think. if we were to believe the NAM you prob taint for a bit but should still cash in on good snows. Anyone from Morris/W Passic/Sussex/Rockland/Orange/Putnam/Dutchess counties should see some impressive rates at one point or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 if we were to believe the NAM you prob taint for a bit but should still cash in on good snows. Anyone from Morris/W Passic/Sussex/Rockland/Orange/Putnam/Dutchess counties should see some impressive rates at one point or another. I'd be nailed if the nam was right, but 48-60 hrs out i fear the north trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This looks like a storm from the 93-94 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have we been NAM'ed yet? lol.. Not sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man, you sound like a pro met! I am impressed! Just a lifelong weenie who has spent too much time trying to figure out ways to make it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just a lifelong weenie who has spent too much time trying to figure out ways to make it snow I know this sounds lame, but don't you wish you had powers like Elsa from the Disney film 'Frozen'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know this sounds lame, but don't you wish you had powers like Elsa from the Disney film 'Frozen'? That thought has definitely never crossed my mind. Nope... not even once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel like we aren't too far away from this storm being "congrats Albany". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That thought has definitely never crossed my mind. Nope... not even once. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel like we aren't too far away from this storm being "congrats Albany". Well, even if we taint, it will be a nice preservative to keep our snow longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Im expecting DT first call map to show 18-24" w/ lollies to 30" lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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