snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM @ 72 ( Obviously just for sh*ts & giggles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And now very light snow with the sun starting to peek through, here comes the wind and the cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 One last decent burst of snow coming through. This has been a nice event. I was at just over 2" when I left home around 8, I would imagine we finish close to 3" once this swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And now very light snow with the sun starting to peek through, here comes the wind and the cold... Time to go out and clear the driveway, before those winds kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess the moral of the story is to never count out a clipper when it looks like this in the upper levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Time to go out and clear the driveway, before those winds kick in. Nice. I weenie out a bit on blowing and drifting. I get to see a good amount of it where I live, DOT will likely be out tonight plowing back the shoulders in the open spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 final - 3.2 inches with the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And boom goes the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And boom goes the GFS We need the LP center to cross S NJ to have any chance at maximizing our snowfall potential. Remember that rule... If the coast/LI/NJ coast stay all snow we won't see as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 And boom goes the GFS looks like 5-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I get the feeling that models are overlooking the potential for modest mesoscale banding up this way on Monday. For that reason I'm not taking QPF too literally at this point, though I do wish we could dig that trough a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I get the feeling that models are overlooking the potential for modest mesoscale banding up this way on Monday. For that reason I'm not taking QPF too literally at this point, though I do wish we could dig that trough a bit more. People, not saying in this thread, are already riding each model cycle,its snow maps, and QPF...some things are never going to change. There's a difference IMO between looking at them for entertainment if you will, and riding them. Its going to be another fun weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z ukmet remains pretty amped for this one.. 12z CMC also came in much more amped and looks great for the lower hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good trends today for us up here.. The Canadian is pure weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I feel a heartbreaker coming for the Monmouth-NYC and LI crew. They should still do fairly well but not as good as up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good trends today for us up here.. The Canadian is pure weather porn. I'd take this and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd take this and run with it. What change from 24 hours ago. Solid warning snow fall seems likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I feel a heartbreaker coming for the Monmouth-NYC and LI crew. They should still do fairly well but not as good as up here. I guess it will not hurt as bad as getting nothing from the blizzard. We will do fine. Thanks for your concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What change from 24 hours ago. Solid warning snow fall seems likely at this point. It adheres well to the seasonal trend of doing exactly the opposite of what you'd expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So many learned nothing from the model debacle earlier this week it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So many learned nothing from the model debacle earlier this week it would seem. Here's the difference with that storm and this coming in terms of models. The models flipped back and forth significantly up to 6 hrs from event, there was no trend and the euro stayed it's course... All short term sim radars showed snow staying to the east...we chose to ignore the warning signs, now for this coming storming, there is a distinctive trend, each run 1 model after the other falls right in line with the previous, we haven't had this consistency between globals in a while.. And they're trending stronger, I'm 1000 percent more confident with this storm then I was blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Here's the difference with that storm and this coming in terms of models. The models flipped back and forth significantly up to 6 hrs from event, there was no trend and the euro stayed it's course... All short term sim radars showed snow staying to the east...we chose to ignore the warning signs, now for this coming storming, there is a distinctive trend, each run 1 model after the other falls right in line with the previous, we haven't had this consistency between globals in a while.. And they're trending stronger, I'm 1000 percent more confident with this storm then I was blizzard Agreed, I'm liking our chances too, it just seems like folks want to spike footballs already first. And second, this spat between the inland folks and the coast folks is old. It appears some 'get off' on one or the other doing 'bad' in any storm. It's been a problem for as long as I've been on these boards, close to 20 years now, so it's never going to go away. I'm more or less used to it by now but sometimes it still grinds my gears a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Agreed, I'm liking our chances too, it just seems like folks want to spike footballs already first. And second, this spat between the inland folks and the coast folks is old. It appears some 'get off' on one or the other doing 'bad' in any storm. It's been a problem for as long as I've been on these boards, close to 20 years now, so it's never going to go away. I'm more or less used to it by now but sometimes it still grinds my gears a bit. Oh did I miss anything good? lol.. What happened now smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z Euro Total Snowfall 12-18" for many here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol, the GFS takes KSWF to -28F on Tuesday morning. Feet and feet of shattered timber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol, the GFS takes KSWF to -28F on Tuesday morning. Feet and feet of shattered timber. I posted that earlier today! Must be some weird algorithm or something, it's shown up a few times since the upgrade. Speaking of cold, check out the Friday morning temps on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol, the GFS takes KSWF to -28F on Tuesday morning. Feet and feet of shattered timber. And -20 on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I posted that earlier today! Must be some weird algorithm or something, it's shown up a few times since the upgrade. Speaking of cold, check out the Friday morning temps on the Euro Heh, whoops, didn't see your post. Should still be interesting to see how cold we can get even if the GFS is off its rocker... the NWS point-and-click has me at -7F Monday night, and I've found my forecast lows are usually at least 5 or 6 degrees too warm on radiational cooling nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Even without the blizzard, this is starting to turn into a pretty spectacular winter up this way for cold and snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Even without the blizzard, this is starting to turn into a pretty spectacular winter up this way for cold and snow lovers. I dunno, spectacular for me has to include long duration snowpack. Including the Thanksgiving storm we've had snow on the ground for what maybe 12-15 days in total? At this point we would really need to build it quickly and add some rain into it then freeze it to lock it up to approach the number of days we had snow on the ground last year. IMBY it was near 60 days last year and in the hills around me it was 75+ depending on exposure, that constitutes great. Spectacular would be not losing it from approximately 12/1>~4/1 even with a thaw or two. Excessive cold and wind, frequent difficult travel episodes and several mangled shovels would make it spectacular It takes more than reaching or even exceeding average to use that word IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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