UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z GFS is quite impressive for the immediate area. for example... MGJ is a hard thump of snow (8-12") followed by ip/zr. So close to all snows... It's a big leap from 18z so the next 4 days or so should be fun yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 So close to all snows... It's a big leap from 18z so the next 4 days or so should be fun yet again Yeah we have 5 days but this is a completely different setup from the last failure. It approaches us from the SW & with tons of WAA. Verbatim the GFS @ MGJ has roughly 1.17" as snow followed by .46" of a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah we have 5 days but this is a completely different setup from the last failure. It approaches us from the SW & with tons of WAA. Verbatim the GFS @ MGJ has roughly 1.17" as snow followed by .46" of a mixed bag. That Low tracks just north of Orange County on the gfs.. If we get this thing to 50 miles or so South we may get our promised foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z GFS Weenie Snow Map @ 144 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z GFS Weenie Snow Map @ 144 hrs.. I posted earlier that I would approach this with caution, I still personally think with the exception of miller B's the euro does better with ECS... With that said if the GFS shows this storm for days and the euro loses it or pushes the warmth too North, I would be catious to hug the GFS and toss the euro as many will want to after last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I posted earlier that I would approach this with caution, I still personally think with the exception of miller B's the euro does better with ECS... With that said if the GFS shows this storm for days and the euro loses it or pushes the warmth too North, I would be catious to hug the GFS and toss the euro as many will want to after last night The storm is always gonna be there. Its matter of if this is gonna be a liquid or frozen event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The storm is always gonna be there. Its matter of if this is gonna be a liquid or frozen event. U seeing the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 U seeing the euro? Only on the freebie sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Only on the freebie sites. Noticeable difference at 72 hrs in those 3 distinct lows out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I ended up with about 3" of snow that fell midday today, not a bad way to salvage some accumulation. Hoping to add to that as the Euro looked pretty good with a few inches for the clipper on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Both euro and GFS 00z runs have most Hudson valley in warning level snows, and to nobody's surprise euro shows 15+ area wide lmao... Gonna be a fun 5 days again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Like many others here, I'm in utter disbelief at the magnitude of this bust. Not sure if I'm worthy of posting in this thread as a new member but I'm surprised I managed to get around 4.0" Welcome aboard! And yes being in Warren county I think you meet the criteria of being interior lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Like many others here, I'm in utter disbelief at the magnitude of this bust. Not sure if I'm worthy of posting in this thread as a new member but I'm surprised I managed to get around 4.0"I think I can speak for many here, we're a pretty laid back reasonable group here, you don't have to be worried about being worthy as a new member here. Thanks for the report and welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 06z GFS came back South...keeps mix at about rockland... Very similar to last nights euro.. If that run verified it would be very big snows from rockland county points North... Classic miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Finally caught up on lost sleep from the weekend. Nice to see a few more threats to track. Thursday night looks good for a couple inches to freshen up the snow pack. Like many others here, I'm in utter disbelief at the magnitude of this bust. Not sure if I'm worthy of posting in this thread as a new member but I'm surprised I managed to get around 4.0" Welcome aboard! I ended up with 2.5" from a max forecast at one point of 18-24"! 06z GFS came back South...keeps mix at about rockland... Very similar to last nights euro.. If that run verified it would be very big snows from rockland county points North... Classic miller A Checking out the Euro ensembles, it looks like they are favoring a system moving up the Ohio River Valley and possibly redeveloping off the coast. To me it looks more like it will end up a SWFE or possibly a Miller B at this point? A lot of spread though. Still lots of time for this to change. Does look like a juicy system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Finally caught up on lost sleep from the weekend. Nice to see a few more threats to track. Thursday night looks good for a couple inches to freshen up the snow pack. Welcome aboard! I ended up with 2.5" from a max forecast at one point of 18-24"! Checking out the Euro ensembles, it looks like they are favoring a system moving up the Ohio River Valley and possibly redeveloping off the coast. To me it looks more like it will end up a SWFE or possibly a Miller B at this point? A lot of spread though. Still lots of time for this to change. Does look like a juicy system though. I will be in Florida to miss this one, but Upton just mentioned that system would be quite progressive and move fast, keeping snow to 6 inches or less. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Finally caught up on lost sleep from the weekend. Me too, crashed at 8:30pm last night and slept till 7am. It looks like our sleep patterns could be screwed up over the next couple of weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 RGEM has a 2-4" event for the area friday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 RGEM has a 2-4" event for the area friday morning.. This clipper keeps getting better, I really think we could get clsome surprises.. Maybe locally 5"... General 1-3 with pockets of 2-4 and 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 As I mentioned in the other thread, keep building that pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 As I mentioned in the other thread, keep building that pack Yes indeed. You brought up something very interesting in regards to nickel & dime events tend to benefit the longevity of a snowpack. I agree 100%. Last year wasn't nickel & dime but that awesome snowpack was the result of 3-4 different storms and we saw how long that lasted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 This clipper keeps getting better, I really think we could get clsome surprises.. Maybe locally 5"... General 1-3 with pockets of 2-4 and 5" Agree. Looks like a 2-4 dump & another possible dump sunday night into monday. Snowpack is getting healthy at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You can always count on AG3 giving a detailed forecast for "NYC and its five boroughs" and nobody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You can always count on AG3 giving a detailed forecast for "NYC and its five boroughs" and nobody else. Try to keep that kind of thing out of this thread please... it's about the only place on the board where everybody gets along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yes indeed. You brought up something very interesting in regards to nickel & dime events tend to benefit the longevity of a snowpack. I agree 100%. Last year wasn't nickel & dime but that awesome snowpack was the result of 3-4 different storms and we saw how long that lasted lol. I have a solid quarter inch of ice underneath the 6-8" of snow on the ground. Should help to keep things in place for awhile, especially if we get a nice little swfe for one of these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yes indeed. You brought up something very interesting in regards to nickel & dime events tend to benefit the longevity of a snowpack. I agree 100%. Last year wasn't nickel & dime but that awesome snowpack was the result of 3-4 different storms and we saw how long that lasted lol. Glad I'm not the only one who noticed this. Part of it I think is the different types of snow you get in the layers and part of it is compaction. Those places in MA that got 30" of powder don't have a 30" snowpack or should I say it didn't add 30" to their pack that was in place. The bigger the dump the more the settling, at least that's been my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Glad I'm not the only one who noticed this. Part of it I think is the different types of snow you get in the layers and part of it is compaction. Those places in MA that got 30" of powder don't have a 30" snowpack or should I say it didn't add 30" to their pack that was in place. The bigger the dump the more the settling, at least that's been my experience. The hard hit areas in Buffalo quickly settled from over 70 Inches to around 30 if I recall correctly. That was somewhat aided by a thaw almost immediately following the storm, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GGEM @120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Tired of being on the NW fringe of all these cold storms? The Canadian has just the solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Tired of being on the NW fringe of all these cold storms? The Canadian has just the solution! Models are all over on this one lol.. North, South, North, South lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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