IrishRob17 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Gfs is showing very little snow for nyc west on the 0 z. This may get ugly tomorrow I'll LMAO if this is the storm that the GFS schools the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 14-18 is still too high. Too much dry air here. Albany trimmed back, not surprisingly TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT... BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPERCONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wall of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wow i'm surprised they didn't cut back further, no way ALB gets anywhere near 10".. at this point 3" looks tough to do. Yeah, I think they mentioned in their discussion that they might trim back further. I'll LMAO if this is the storm that the GFS schools the Euro. Should make model analysis very straightforward for the rest of the winter 14-18 is still too high. Too much dry air here. I agree. If and when those brighter echoes make it here, I suspect they will just weaken and build back up over CT. What's your thought? I have barely an inch so far, maybe 6" total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, I think they mentioned in their discussion that they might trim back further. Should make model analysis very straightforward for the rest of the winter I agree. If and when those brighter echoes make it here, I suspect they will just weaken and build back up over CT. What's your thought? I have barely an inch so far, maybe 6" total? Depends the duration of the snow now more than intensity. We know intensity will be light. Hopefully the snow can last most of tomorrow to give us a chance to reach 6 inches with help of ratios. Wow.....from dreaming 2 feet yesterday to praying for 6 inches now, this is painful.......very painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wall of snow!! which unfortunately will not reach us as heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Gfs is showing very little snow for nyc west on the 0 z. This may get ugly tomorrow If verifies, I will never trust the Euro ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I hope it snows most of the day tomorrow so I'll at least have something to do outside. If not they better open the roads quick so I can get out of the house cuz if I have to be stuck here all day with the wife, kids and FIL I'm gonna go nutz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think i saw a strong band in the mix if it could just move a little more west ,,i could maybe open my parachute .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If verifies, I will never trust the Euro ever again.Until next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 my goodness, gfs for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 my goodness, gfs for the win? Looks to be so, the euro clearly won't verify, we were well into mod/ heavy snow by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The edge of the snow is basically stuck over my house now. Something better than nothing I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am going to wait and see if we can get that band in coming west from CT through the Hudson Valley.. Hopefully that will crack the seal and get us out of this horrible dry air/subsidence, although what I am seeing happening in Litchfield county is rather concerning. If it doesn't improve in the next hour or two, I think it could be game over for me in southern Dutchess County. Will be lucky to get 4 inches at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Area in NW Litchfield actually seems to be intensifying in the last 15 mins or so. Still hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The edge of the snow is basically stuck over my house now. Something better than nothing I guess And thats Lgt snow.. I was just in Harriman. The real heavy stuff has yet to cross the CT/NY line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So close ... Gonna head for bed and hope for the best. See y'all in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yes, the Litchfield county area seems to be recovering.. I just glanced at the CMC and GFS.. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 My drive from the city was a piece of cake. Complete bust W of NYC. I have about 2" on the ground with the moon dimly poking through the overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And thats Lgt snow.. I was just in Harriman. The real heavy stuff has yet to cross the CT/NY line. It's actually just crossed into NY. Its pretty much aligned with 684 now in Putnam down to just east of White Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's actually just crossed into NY. Its pretty much aligned with 684 now in Putnam down to just east of White Plains Its about 25 miles east of me... I am hopeful it can make it here in the next 30 minutes or so. If it can get across the Hudson River, then I think we may start to see some better rates on this side of the river... Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Its about 25 miles east of me... I am hopeful it can make it here in the next 30 minutes or so. If it can get across the Hudson River, then I think we may start to see some better rates on this side of the river... Fingers crossed. It appears to be moving a bit more north of west now as opposed to the due west. I think there's a chance for us. A very heavy band formed behind it over central CT. Hopefully that doesn't cause the leading band to weaken much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It appears to be moving a bit more north of west now as opposed to the due west. I think there's a chance for us. A very heavy band formed behind it over central CT. Hopefully that doesn't cause the leading band to weaken much. You are right... Seems to be moving NW... I think we will be seeing some better stuff within 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol.. If I see anything close to 12" it will be a miracle. I would need 10" more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 About ready to throw in the towel here in eastern Morris County. Just walked outside, literally nothing coming down at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Band is entering the SE corner of Dutchess County now.. East of that, the snow looks moderate in intensity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Unfortunately, I think the band is about to set up shop in the 684 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Unfortunately, I think the band is about to set up shop in the 684 corridor That area has been a hot spot the last few yrs with these fringe jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol.. If I see anything close to 12" it will be a miracle. I would need 10" more I will shovel with a tablespoon if that 18 inches verifies IMBY...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I will shovel with a tablespoon if that 18 inches verifies IMBY...lol lol.. I need to see snow falling out of the sky first before we can talk accumulation here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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