Keith O Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is why I friggin hate Miller B's, always a major screw job somewhere and need too many things to work out perfectly. Miller B's are always a SNE and LI special and models sucked me in again this time. Give me a nice Miller A coming up from the Gulf or even a solid over running event any day of the week, may not get the epic totals but at least not staring at the radar hoping precip materializes. Guess I should be happy with the 4" I got so far. Funny my kids were off from school today and tomorrow and to think I thought them being out today was the stretch, roads actually were bad this afternoon so good call but tomorrow mrining maybe just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 With the latest NAM run joining the east trend, I am just about done with this snow event. Ill enjoy the few inches. Lucky are those just to our east, another just miss here in the HV. Before moving here, I never realized the HV was such a place to be teased during winter storms. Euro is certainly no king. For those of you south and east of this stupid snowhole called Poughkeepsie, congrats and enjoy. I am looking forward to Spring. Sorry for the downer, but I just need to vent. We'll get a foot of snow. Not to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Not looking good here by the Delaware Water Gap. Too far west. It aint looking good for anyone west of the hudson using the most recent nam run. radar looks pathetic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is why I friggin hate Miller B's, always a major screw job somewhere and need too many things to work out perfectly. Miller B's are always a SNE and LI special and models sucked me in again this time. Give me a nice Miller A coming up from the Gulf or even a solid over running event any day of the week, may not get the epic totals but at least not staring at the radar hoping precip materializes. Guess I should be happy with the 4" I got so far. Funny my kids were off from school today and tomorrow and to think I thought them being out today was the stretch, roads actually were bad this afternoon so good call but tomorrow mrining maybe just fine. Yeah the snowfall this morning made a mess of things. Perhaps schools and offices jumped the gun by shutting down tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 here come the cliff jumpers....misory loves company...what a joke this snow hole is...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent. Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent. Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet. Grab a paddle...its a broken ship.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent. Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet. you have a shot due to your location. I need more of a push west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This reminds me a lot(unfortunately) of March 2001 which had a wall of snow which made it to about the Berkshires and then broke up. Forecasts of 24-36" turned into 3" the next morning. Looking at dewpoints and current radar this looks a lot more solid than that one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent. Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet. Be careful trying to be the voice of reason here...I'll be your first mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Be careful trying to be the voice of reason here...I'll be your first mate. I admit I fell victim to model watching tonight myself after holding strong for so many days especially after last nights 00z runs lol...H5 looks to close soon and this storm is just exploding, if that moisture makes it to us and the mid levels close we could be looking at the sharp cutoff( that the euro showed) in western Orange County while band sit overtop everyone from the Hudson river east, seeing the radar make a push has me feeling much better. Very stressful storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We'll get a foot of snow. Not to worry. I like your optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 snow still seems to be having a lot of trouble making it west over the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's not gonna happen guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I admit I fell victim to model watching tonight myself after holding strong for so many days especially after last nights 00z runs lol...H5 looks to close soon and this storm is just exploding, if that moisture makes it to us and the mid levels close we could be looking at the sharp cutoff( that the euro showed) in western Orange County while band sit overtop everyone from the Hudson river east, seeing the radar make a push has me feeling much better. Very stressful stormWell, I could wake up to three inches of snow but fretting over it ain't gonna change it. There will be other storms regardless of what happens with this one. After that crappy Feb 06 miss for me it took a while, including other misses in 09 and early 10 but then the last two weeks of Feb 10 happened and it was awesome around here and I appreciated it that much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Mt Holly just lowered totals west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is still a SIGNIFICANT STORM... When we're talking about having totals lowered from 18-24 to 14-18 I'm not concerned anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Mt Holly just lowered totals west of NYC. Is this new? If so I will ride the bus to the last stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just went for a (short) Jebwalk. I was hoping we had passed 2" but ... no go. The caveat though is the wind which makes it hard to tell for sure. That wind was the reason for the short walk, it's truly stinging when you're faced into it. It's not snowing hard at all but there are some sharp grains mixed in and when they blast you at 25+ it's unpleasant. That wind still has a bit of a NW component to it which surprised me but after reading you guys saying the storm hasn't finished developing yet kinda explains it. As I sit here typing it is starting to snow harder but it's still a bit lighter than moderate. I'd really like to see this come west a little, and indications are still that it will but, if it doesn't add up to the big totals I don't think I'll be too disappointed. Heck, it wasn't much more than 48 hours ago that this storm still wasn't progged to be much of anything so I really didn't get too emotionally invested. That said I would like to wake up in the morning and see a foot of new fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-rad-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is a nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Be careful trying to be the voice of reason here...I'll be your first mate. Then your job is to get a few cases of duct tape and try to keep the hull together for just a couple more hours... lol. Gonna head to bed for a while and see where we stand in the wee hours. I really don't think things are as bad as many are making them out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Then your job is to get a few cases of duct tape and try to keep the hull together for just a couple more hours... lol. Gonna head to bed for a while and see where we stand in the wee hours. I really don't think things are as bad as many are making them out to be. I think that band is going to stall east of the Hudson, possibly out by you. Not sure that it makes it this far. It's painful to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Then your job is to get a few cases of duct tape and try to keep the hull together for just a couple more hours... lol. Gonna head to bed for a while and see where we stand in the wee hours. I really don't think things are as bad as many are making them out to be. Aye, aye, Cap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I belive in miracles ,,,where ya been you sexy thing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think that band is going to stall east of the Hudson, possibly out by you. Not sure that it makes it this far. It's painful to watch! I'm starting to wonder if it even makes it to me and I'm another 20 or so miles east of Julian. Quite a bit south but in this case I don't think that's a factor. The Thunder Ridge webcam is active and controllable and they have the lights on so you can see what's up. Check it - http://thunderridgeski.com/mountain-cam.html The cam is on at Mohawk too - http://www.mohawkmtn.com/webcam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 is that movement i see after 4 am....hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Albany trimmed back, not surprisingly TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ONALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERINGSNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHERADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE CODTOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FORSOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BITLESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EASTAND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSUREFALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAYIN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY INRESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPERCONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCEDA LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADINGWESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THEBERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALLTHERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING ANDFORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THESTORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Gfs is showing very little snow for nyc west on the 0 z. This may get ugly tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wow i'm surprised they didn't cut back further, no way ALB gets anywhere near 10".. at this point 3" looks tough to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.