UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:40 PM, snywx said: Many of the individuals in its ensemble are left of the mean. Doubt it was convective feedback. Agreed, nams not that great, looks pretty easy to me, but it is 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 21z SREFS came in wetter.. Snowfall Mean for POU was 15.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 DT First Guess lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 2:19 AM, snywx said: 21z SREFS came in wetter.. Snowfall Mean for POU was 15.7" Quite a bit higher if you hide the 0" members, which I don't think is unreasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 2:37 AM, Juliancolton said: Quite a bit higher if you hide the 0" members, which I don't think is unreasonable at this point. Nam sucks but I feel good with the euro, GFS trend, and 33-50 ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 2:39 AM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: Nam sucks but I feel good with the euro, GFS trend, and 33-50 ensemble members "I'll have a Euro/Eta combo without the Eta, thanks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 2:46 AM, Juliancolton said: "I'll have a Euro/Eta combo without the Eta, thanks." I can't count how many times the euro has shown big storm only for mostly ALL other models to disagree, and the euro scores a coupe, I think it happened 2 times last year, as well as the big winter storm after sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 2:19 AM, snywx said: 21z SREFS came in wetter.. Snowfall Mean for POU was 15.7" ARP3 please (42") On 1/25/2015 at 2:39 AM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: Nam sucks but I feel good with the euro, GFS trend, and 33-50 ensemble members I was reading about Boxing Day tonight and the NAM was consistently east up until at least 48 hours prior to the start. Plus the hi-res NAM gets snow back another 30 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 2:21 AM, snywx said: DT First Guess lol.. He may look foolish. Maybe I am just pessimistic with the mega hype of this potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS looks good for the HV. Wetter than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:05 AM, snywx said: GFS looks good for the HV. Wetter than 18z. GFS is a foot plus for most of lower Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM looks even more amped in comparison to the GFS. Too bad it only goes out to 48. Its already snowing at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What's the estimated start time for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Precip. totals. Not sure what kind of ratios we can get, probably 12:1 given the airmass, and if we get into banding, even higher I suspect. EDIT: the site won't let me upload, sorry. Basically 1-1.5" east of the Hudson and 0.75 to 1" west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:20 AM, snywx said: RGEM looks even more amped in comparison to the GFS. Too bad it only goes out to 48. Its already snowing at the end of the run I would be absolutely dumbfounded if the euro shows anything but a bomb, possible a tick west as well since that's the trend last 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:24 AM, threeyoda said: What's the estimated start time for this? Its gonna be snowing lightly throughout the day on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday is when the real show begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:25 AM, snywx said: Its gonna be snowing lightly throughout the day on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday is when the real show begins Yeah, it looks like light stuff moves in Monday, maybe late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The GFS is pretty much 10-16" from west to east in the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow have u seen the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 CCB Parked overhead for hours on the GGEM lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Loop of the GFS for posterity... rarely do we see such a gorgeous upper-air evolution as this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:46 AM, snywx said: CCB Parked overhead for hours on the GGEM lol.. If GGEM verified especially with temps in the teens to low 20s were looking at 15-20:1 ratios... We could be tracking one of the all time greats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:50 AM, OrangeCountySnowZ said: If GGEM verified especially with temps in the teens to low 20s were looking at 15-20:1 ratios... We could be tracking one of the all time greats Boston is buried with widespread 3 feet totals on the GEM. If these totals verify, someone in persistent banding near the coastal front out there could approach 4 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:52 AM, chietanen said: Boston is buried with widespread 3 feet totals on the GEM. If these totals verify, someone in persistent banding near the coastal front out there could approach 4 feet. The GGEM actually has the CCB rotting over the HV.. If that solution verified someone up here would easily have 2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:52 AM, chietanen said: Boston is buried with widespread 3 feet totals on the GEM. If these totals verify, someone in persistent banding near the coastal front out there could approach 4 feet. I feel like a little kid on Christmas... My eyes hurt I've been glued to my phone so long lmao... I'm off till Thursday starting tomorrow, and I'm going ice fishing....I'm ready for this thing to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:53 AM, snywx said: The GGEM actually has the CCB rotting over the HV.. If that solution verified someone up here would easily have 2' Yup. 1.2" to 2" QPF across the Hudson Valley QPF, verbatim. I can definitely envision 15:1 average ratios under that deformation bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just want this pleaseeeee to come 20-30 miles west. That's all I ask. I just don't want to watch people get buried in feet while I count my inches hahaha. But mannnnn I can't remember being this excited about a storm in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GEM snow map 00z Ukie - about same as 12z, actually gets snow further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On 1/25/2015 at 4:58 AM, nick5892 said: I just want this pleaseeeee to come 20-30 miles west. That's all I ask. I just don't want to watch people get buried in feet while I count my inches hahaha. But mannnnn I can't remember being this excited about a storm in a while This is gonna have a sharp cut off. If you draw a line directly south from MSV thats probably the location where you will see a massive transition from plowable to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Keep in mind those snow maps are 10:1, were gonna easily have 15:1 or higher ratios so even those that show 6 inches on the GGEM map are most likely into 9+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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