Animal Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 New thread for the next several months.. hopefully we get lucky this year. Numerous bust early last year with snow predictions. Leasson #1, don't use snow ratios. Poor dry air typically kills you. If NYC weenies are barking, we shouuld just drive south and get a hotel. I got 75 last year, which 45 came in 4 weeks. End of Feb through March was a shut out. Best of luck friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Nice.. U had some good mojo with starting the last thread. Lets see what happens moving forward lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Nice.. U had some good mojo with starting the last thread. Lets see what happens moving forward lol Hoping we can get a few inches with the mid week system. It would be a rare bird if the March does not produce at a minimum one good event for this threads area. Last march produced 19.3 inches in my backyard. 8-Mar 11.8 16-Mar 1.5 18-Mar 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I can see many of us getting some accumulation. How much is the million dollar question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think the mid week system has high potential for our area if the snow ducks line up well. We are away from marine influence and if the low tracks south enough, we will have confluent flow and hopefully dynamic cooling if the low really strengthens. Models also sniffing something big for next week, but too far out to woof really loudly yet. But I think we have at least one more foot plus storm in the bag before this amazing season fades into a cold and rainy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm not feeling great about midweek... most models have the mid-level centers moving either overhead or to our northwest, which is bad for both temps and precip dynamics. I could see a couple inches of snow that get washed away by sputtering 37F rain in the 700 mb warm sector and then 3-5" of windwhipped powder on the backside. Albany's AFD touched on deformation banding hanging back well after we're back into the cold side of the system. Of course, this is all based on current guidance... we have a good 72 hours for tweaks. Maybe the US 44 corridor and northward can steal a few additional inches compared to southern areas but it looks messy for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm not feeling great about midweek... most models have the mid-level centers moving either overhead or to our northwest, which is bad for both temps and precip dynamics. I could see a couple inches of snow that get washed away by sputtering 37F rain in the 700 mb warm sector and then 3-5" of windwhipped powder on the backside. Albany's AFD touched on deformation banding hanging back well after we're back into the cold side of the system. Of course, this is all based on current guidance... we have a good 72 hours for tweaks. Maybe the US 44 corridor and northward can steal a few additional inches compared to southern areas but it looks messy for everyone. It is not common for this area to get a significant backlash after a front end rain stprm. As soon as the storm pulls to the north of our latitude, a downsloping NW wind sets in which dries us up fairly quickly. Further north in the Albany area they get the backlash which is aided by the confluence of the Hudson and Mohawk rivers, which channel converging winds from the north and WNW. without the downsloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM is colder, solid advisory level snows up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It is not common for this area to get a significant backlash after a front end rain stprm. As soon as the storm pulls to the north of our latitude, a downsloping NW wind sets in which dries us up fairly quickly. Further north in the Albany area they get the backlash which is aided by the confluence of the Hudson and Mohawk rivers, which channel converging winds from the north and WNW. without the downsloping My understanding is that Mohawk-Hudson convergence won't do much to enhance existing mechanisms for ascent, but more to the point... normally I don't buy into suggestions of backlash snows south of Albany. Temps look to crash more rapidly than normal immediately behind the system, though, and it has happened before around these parts. I think I picked up several inches of powder after the April 15, 2007 system. There's been some extensive talk this evening of a flash freeze event with this storm, and theoretically the immense temp gradient would yield enough frontogenic forcing to supersede downsloping subsidence for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not saying it can't happen but it does not happen very often round here. As far as the MH conversion is concerned, I lived full time up there in Queensbury for 6 years and I witnessed quite a number of backlash situations where the main shield was moving east out of ENY and the convergence kept backbuilding snow over Albany/ Saratoga CTY. for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not saying it can't happen but it does not happen very often round here. As far as the MH conversion is concerned, I lived full time up there in Queensbury for 6 years and I witnessed quite a number of backlash situations where the main shield was moving east out of ENY and the convergence kept backbuilding snow over Albany/ Saratoga CTY. for hours. Fair enough, hard to argue with the ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Subtle improvements on the 00z GFS, including a slightly less amped system overall and an 850 mb low noticeably further south. Mid-HV looks to start as slop but transitions to wet snow per simulated soundings. Not staying up for the Euro but I expect it to nudge south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM is colder, solid advisory level snows up here. It shows a solid warning event for anyone north of line from Vernon/Warwick/Harriman/Cold Spring. 850's below 0 and surface temps at or below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It shows a solid warning event for anyone north of line from Vernon/Warwick/Harriman/Cold Spring. 850's below 0 and surface temps at or below freezing And, 12 hours later, we all have a rainstorm. The 12z NAM does not appear too much different than the 6z GFS. Looks like the writing is on the wall with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yup, run-of-the-mill rainstorm inbound. Old man winter is suffering rapidly failing health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Old man winter has been about as dry as the air has been for the past few weeks. I'm tired of it. Bring on the spring warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS point and click calling for 2-4" Wednesday night here after the changeover...don't see it happening WednesdayRain, snow, and sleet likely before 11am, then rain. High near 41. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday NightRain showers before 10pm, then snow showers likely. Low around 17. Northeast wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Low-level southerly winds are absolutely torching the Hudson Valley this evening. 41F here atm... snowpack ftl apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 My personal weather station has me at 60.3F, which I think may be a few degrees warm based on other mesonet observations in my area, although there are lots of 59 and 60F readings up and down the Valley today. The sensor has a solar cover and is in the shade. Old man winter on live support. Edit: 61.0F, haha. Feast or famine this time of year, regardless of your preference regarding cold vs. warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 My personal weather station has me at 60.3F, which I think may be a few degrees warm based on other mesonet observations in my area, although there are lots of 59 and 60F readings up and down the Valley today. The sensor has a solar cover and is in the shade. Old man winter on live support. 54F here by me. I'm actually amazed about how much snowpack is still out there though. Definitely getting some melting but it's been at a slow pace. I'm actually looking forward to seeing some bare ground again eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 54F here by me. I'm actually amazed about how much snowpack is still out there though. Definitely getting some melting but it's been at a slow pace. I'm actually looking forward to seeing some bare ground again eventually. Just measured and took another core sample, 8.5" on an undisturbed, open, west-facing slope with just under 3.3" water content, or 2.6:1 ratios. I think I had 10.5" at this time yesterday, so the melting has certainly sped up, but 60F with full sun will do that. Interesting how the pack is striated (I guess?) and one can still roughly identify where each storm made its mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah this is a pretty durable pack, I still have 2-8" depending on aspect. I don't know about keeping full cover for another day though. There are enough small holes now that the rain tomorrow will most likely leave it at or under half before it freezes back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 My personal weather station has me at 60.3F, which I think may be a few degrees warm based on other mesonet observations in my area, although there are lots of 59 and 60F readings up and down the Valley today. The sensor has a solar cover and is in the shade. Old man winter on live support. Edit: 61.0F, haha. Feast or famine this time of year, regardless of your preference regarding cold vs. warm. Which station is it? I currently have a Davis Vantage Vue and I know it runs warm on sunny days, it had 62 for a high today while KMGJ had 58 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Which station is it? I currently have a Davis Vantage Vue and I know it runs warm on sunny days, it had 62 for a high today while KMGJ had 58 for a high. It's an Oregon Scientific WMR100. I think it may just be too sensitive in general. I do need to upgrade in the near future anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 6.5" still of snowpack this morning. That said, there is a growing bare spot under a tree that is on a south facing slope. It will be interesting to see whats left tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I have a lot of big spruce trees in my yard that lead to uneven accumulations even in the biggest storms, so probably 1/3 of my yard is bare while open and undisturbed plots still have about 7". Got a good feeling many of us can steal a couple inches tonight, but hopefully things don't get too slick for the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Good day all, I was hoping that the models were correct with possibly inch or 2 of back end snow. Taking a look at the radar, odds don't favor it. 0.21 inches of rain to far. Temp 42F Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's down to 32 here and the line is about to move through. We should get some mixed precip out of it, but I doubt we see much accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 33.6F here, might see some freezing drizzle in the next couple hours, followed by light snow showers as that dying deformation zone pulls through. A very "meh" storm indeed, the impressive surface maps notwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yeah, not our storm. My son is up at Oswego, anything but meh up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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