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St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Yeah, this NAM fantasy extrapolates into a pretty gnarly spring blue-bomb. You got an isothermal temperature plumb through a stacked easterly wind anomaly - not large, but deep. It's even weakly closed off at the 300mb level.

Who knows ...even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile. Eventually the NAM has just gotta get lucky ... Though I've checked out and am in mental summer mode, that would be an exciting system. Shouldn't spring tides also be high?

man if only
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JC-CT

JC-CT

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18z NAM is up to it's usual magic act... errr, we think.

It now has a closed off nuke on the Delmarva for the 19th!

It's actually a trend that starts at 48 hours, when/where it is noticed that the southern stream is stronger on this run, and so the model merely conserves more dynamics when it ultimately turns the corner in the deep SE. Also, one thing I am noticing in Steve's analog from earlier is that the ridge axis between the s/w ridge of the two streams are actually coming into phase, and that may have a transitive forcing to get the two trough to quasi-interact.

Hm, interesting...

At least you are willing to entertain the idea that there are still a lot of moving parts here. We really have no idea yet what will happen with that left over energy and any interaction with the expected cutter.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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At least you are willing to entertain the idea that there are still a lot of moving parts here. We really have no idea yet what will happen with that left over energy and any interaction with the expected cutter.

 

Oh gees, especially in spring ... This time of the year, more so than autumn, ...Marches are just about as fickle as can be. This is usually the annual nadir in model performance; someone can back this up, or prove it wrong, but just from my experience March is typically a bad month. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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No your not.

And I was willing to see if anything trended better. It hasn't.

 

Nothing really supports either of these coming close to anything more than flurries or a little light snow for the Cape. The NAM and SREFs continue their stellar performance this winter.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Nothing really supports either of these coming close to anything more than flurries or a little light snow for the Cape. The NAM and SREFs continue their stellar performance this winter.

Well the first one has been long gone. I was willing to give the second one time, but time is about up with no support like you said.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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99/100x the NAM solution at 72+ hours is BS....however, the 6z RGEM actually looks fairly potent with the wave in the south like the NAM...Better chance my girlfriend stops bitching about me playing video games in my free time than the NAM solution being right though.

It certainly looks more like the NAM than the GFS. That may not be a good thing for the rgem though.

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