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St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

With us being in a low end drought now..and the ensembles/long range modeling painting a mainly coid, dry scenario this spring..and it being on pace for a record dry march..can you foresee any drought problems as we hit summer?

 

With it being so cold though all the Jan and Feb precip is stored above ground with a healthy amount of water content.   Like a battery of sorts.

 

Last year was extremely dry with no real mud season, this year is going to be extremely muddy and after the rain on Wednesday I would guess the streams are doing fine... normal at least.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

With us being in a low end drought now..and the ensembles/long range modeling painting a mainly coid, dry scenario this spring..and it being on pace for a record dry march..can you foresee any drought problems as we hit summer?

Sweet, the first drought post, you know how I love to jump on that bandwagon.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

With us being in a low end drought now..and the ensembles/long range modeling painting a mainly coid, dry scenario this spring..and it being on pace for a record dry march..can you foresee any drought problems as we hit summer?

Hopefully we can get some massive QB/ON forest fires so that we can advect in a couple of good smoke days.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Hopefully we can get some massive QB/ON forest fires so that we can advect in a couple of good smoke days.

This is what we have to look forward to this spring..though up there you guys aren't in low end drought..but imagine the red flag warnings this spring down here. Exciting.  We won't have much of a mud season in SNE with dry ground..so that's a plus

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted

BAM. UPTON:

THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUED TO SHOW A NORTHERN TREND IN THE TRACK WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA FROM SUNY SB SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...HOWEVER TODAYS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS INTERESTINGLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS INCONSISTENCY STEMS FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT JUST MOVED ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW US. DEGREE OF PHASING OF THESE TWO FEATURES...AND EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF...WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH AS IT COULD BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER AND THE MARCH 3RD STORM OR BETTER THE NON-STORM IS STILL IN RECENT MEMORY. THE HIGH DURING THAT EVENT WAS ABOUT 10 MB STRONGER THAN IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FOR THIS ONE.

WHILE THE 00Z/14 GEFS..NAEFS AND EC ENS MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 00Z/14 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IS STILL INDICATING A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MSLP TO THE N OF EACH OF THE MEAN TRACKS...IMPLYING THAT THE TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER N. THE SENSITIVITY SIGNAL FIRST APPEARS ON LAND AT 00Z/15 AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PAC NW. WILL BE ABLE TO GAIN SOME BETTER INSIGHT AFTER TONIGHT`S 00Z AND EVEN MORE AFTER TOMORROWS 12Z RUNS NOW THAT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SAMPLED MUCH BETTER BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. A COMPARISON OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE H5 FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PAC NW CAN BE MADE AS WELL AND DETERMINATION IF THESE NRN TRACK SOLNS ARE PLAUSIBLE OR NOT. THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TO THE N WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR NEEDED FOR A SNOW EVENT...BUT THIS TOO COULD BECOME QUESTIONABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THE SPREAD IN THE ENS MEANS COMES TO FRUITION.

AM NOT JUMPING ON THE SUPPRESSED SOLNS YET SINCE THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE SURE IF WE WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES) IN A OVERRUNNING PATTERN...BUT THE HIGHER QPF VALUES ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IT IS STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

Saw this in the NYC forum, an interesting read I suppose.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

The drought looks severe in the Northeast, considering the growing season starts here in about 60 days, I think it's cause for concern.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast

Hoping that's sarcasm, lol. February was a "wet" month and even without a lot of precipitation in March, gradual melting from up north should help.

As we've seen, it takes a pretty long stretch of abnormally dry conditions before you can raise a true drought flag in the Northeast.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Don't shoot the messenger, but not only did the 0z cmc and the 6z gfs trend north with the HP for the first time in days...but I just took a look at 6 hour intervals from 18 hours out until 0 hour for 12z today...same trend.

Probably just setting the goalposts...but at least it is not exactly the same as March 3rd.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Congrats on the W. You beat me by 5. Who would have thought Scooter would destroy all of us?

ORH's prime location on the east slope of the ORH hills, coupled with their low variance from us makes them next to impossible to beat. Scooter beating us in a very cold season does not surprise me. He is ground zero for oes.
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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

I love that I am the only person in New England even remotely following this.

It seems like such a fickle setup, and I still see relatively significant run to run changes on the GFS in the handling of the shortwave in the southwest, even at such a short lead time. Plus, one of the players, the PacNW shortwave, is still over the Pacific Ocean.

It's not going to be a classic NE blizzard, but I am not going to completely write it off for an inch or two for southern zones until I see some better run to run consistency and/or see the GFS stop trending north.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I love that I am the only person in New England even remotely following this.

It seems like such a fickle setup, and I still see relatively significant run to run changes on the GFS in the handling of the shortwave in the southwest, even at such a short lead time. Plus, one of the players, the PacNW shortwave, is still over the Pacific Ocean.

It's not going to be a classic NE blizzard, but I am not going to completely write it off for an inch or two for southern zones until I see some better run to run consistency and/or see the GFS stop trending north.

You've answered your own questions.

 

There is an outside an inch or two to the south.

Not very captivating for the vast majority of the area, especially after having been skunked for the past month plus.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

18z NAM is up to it's usual magic act... errr, we think. 

 

It now has a closed off nuke on the Delmarva for the 19th!

 

It's actually a trend that starts at 48 hours, when/where it is noticed that the southern stream is stronger on this run, and so the model merely conserves more dynamics when it ultimately turns the corner in the deep SE. Also, one thing I am noticing in Steve's analog from earlier is that the ridge axis between the s/w ridge of the two streams are actually coming into phase, and that may have a transitive forcing to get the two trough to quasi-interact.  

 

Hm, interesting...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah, this NAM fantasy extrapolates into a pretty gnarly spring blue-bomb.  You got an isothermal temperature plumb through a stacked easterly wind anomaly - not large, but deep. It's even weakly closed off at the 300mb level.  

 

Who knows ...even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile.  Eventually the NAM has just gotta get lucky ... Though I've checked out and am in mental summer mode, that would be an exciting system.  Shouldn't spring tides also be high? 

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