St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

[Brian5671]

my .2 yesterday was the big one lol. only measursble snow in 30 days

BDR has .1 despite a huge negative temp deparature

[CoastalWx]

We've had a couple of events locally that dropped 2-4" especially south of here. One was yesterday.

[ORH_wxman]

And now maybe..for the love of God..people can stop looking at the srefs until further upgrades.

 

 

Well I think most did a good job this year putting very little stock in them.

[OceanStWx]

yeah, new rule-no more posting them outside of 12 hrs

 

The funny thing is, they do a respectable job at 24-48 hours for convective forecasting. It probably has more to do with the winter time stakes being so high when it comes to snow amounts. A small QPF difference or warm layer can significantly impact amounts, where generally a severe weather threat area shifting 50 miles isn't as noticeable.

[Typhoon Tip]

What a spring appeal that has abruptly taken over the middle and extended range -- my my.  

 

It may not snow again this year...  You get to the ides of March, and the models starts dinking around with event deconstruction runs, you gotta sorta kinda justly need to ask that question. 

 

I'd have to say it will based purely in climate, but for you winter weather hold outs ... this run is personal attack!  Ooph

[powderfreak]

At least in 2010, we really didn't have a shot (though the interior elevations had a chance mid-month, but it never trended quite cold enough) due to that polar rotting airmass, though I know the hopes were high going into that March with the blocking pattern.....this current pattern has been taunting us for the first half of the month with a big storm down in the M.A. on 3/3 and a huge storm just 100 miles north of us 3/12-13....its been some cruddy luck. We've had a ton of cold and two big systems close by, but they have conspired to leave us in the 7/10 split.

:

That's pretty much what happened up here in January to the first part of February. We had some cutters that buried areas not far north of the Canadian border (Montreal north got smoked while we had an ice storm and 35F rains), then the cold shots would come and snow in Philly or BOS.

It does get frustrating.

[8611Blizz]

Can't wait to see a seasonal snow map this year, should have some anomalies regards to climo. On to spring.

[powderfreak]

I really thought we could grab something in this pattern. It's just crap luck....I'd play the odds of a similar pattern for sure.

Yeah after our bitching in January to early February up here, I realized it was just bad luck. Would take our chances up here in that pattern again. It seems the wheel of shaft is making it to all areas this winter.

[cja1987]

I do think that we can most definitely stick a fork in Monday.

 

However, I can't help but lol at ourselves here a little bit. Usually when we start collectively spiking footballs like this around here is when something sneaks up and dumps in the 5-15 days thereafter. Just a general ob, nothing scientific.

 

Aside from a late season run up to Sugarloaf sometime in the 24-27 timeframe, I'm pretty much looking ahead to warmer times as well. Should stay deep winter up there until at least then, I did a NH snowpack tour a few weeks back, gotta do a Maine one so Id like the epic depths to hold through the month and they will.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This storm is turning out quite close to the storm 2 weeks ago. There were some pretty big solutions, and the rug was pulled out at 12z Friday. And the storm kept going south all weekend until verification time on monday

[ORH_wxman]

I do think that we can most definitely stick a fork in Monday.

 

However, I can't help but lol at ourselves here a little bit. Usually when we start collectively spiking footballs like this around here is when something sneaks up and dumps in the 5-15 days thereafter. Just a general ob, nothing scientific.

 

Aside from a late season run up to Sugarloaf sometime in the 24-27 timeframe, I'm pretty much looking ahead to warmer times as well. Should stay deep winter up there until at least then, I did a NH snowpack tour a few weeks back, gotta do a Maine one so Id like the epic depths to hold through the month and they will.

 

 

I'm pretty sure we aren't bringing in spring...I know some will be tempted to, but its just not going to happen yet. We're going to get the typical sunny downslope 54F days on occasion over the next 2 weeks, but there is a ton of cold lurking north and its going to hit us periodically kind of like right now...and then again Sunday/Monday.

 

While I wouldn't take it at face value, you can see the Euro in clown range showing what happens...a brief warmup, and then an arctic intrusion. Its ready to unload past D10 too on that map with a huge EPO spike.

 

 

We're probably going to be in a roller-coaster biasing cold for the next 2 weeks....and I'm sure there will be another threat or two along the way to suck people back in.

 

 

Like I said before....do you like pain?

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would like to hit my yearly average...lol

Need around 2"

[Damage In Tolland]

For you youngsters out there..guess what..you are reliving exactly what we went thru in the 1980's. The -EPO pretty much ruled the roost thru much of that decade and many,many of our winters instead of 1 month of it like we got reamed with this year..we had entire winters like this...bitter, nasty cold and wind and dry..then a cutter..then bitter cold again with storms missing us every which way they could. This is only a taste..but man this brings back some bad and disturbing memories of winters from when I was growing up..be thankful it was only 30 days this time

[Baroclinic Zone]

I would like to hit my yearly average...lol

Need around 2"

You're below your seasonal average?  I'm ~150%

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I would like to hit my yearly average...lol

Need around 2"

Been almost a month since this area has seen anything over 2".

[ORH_wxman]

For you youngsters out there..guess what..you are reliving exactly what we went thru in the 1980's. The -EPO pretty much ruled the roost thru much of that decade and many,many of our winters instead of 1 month of it like we got reamed with this year..we had entire winters like this...bitter, nasty cold and wind and dry..then a cutter..then bitter cold again with storms missing us every which way they could. This is only a taste..but man this brings back some bad and disturbing memories of winters from when I was growing up..be thankful it was only 30 days this time

 

 

Yep, that's actually quite true about the '80s. A lot of -EPO dominated winters....and we got the shaft on many occassion.

 

But I don't expect a repeat of those winters soon (despite this year's -EPO) given that we are in a predominately -PDO cycle.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yep, that's actually quite true about the '80s. A lot of -EPO dominated winters....and we got the shaft on many occassion.

 

But I don't expect a repeat of those winters soon (despite this year's -EPO) given that we are in a predominately -PDO cycle.

Well all we can hope for is an April 1982..Folks wonder how it could be so cold like that for several days in April during and the day after a snowstorm..Teens during the storm and 20's the following day under full sunshine.. -EPO is the answer

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm pretty sure we aren't bringing in spring...I know some will be tempted to, but its just not going to happen yet. We're going to get the typical sunny downslope 54F days on occasion over the next 2 weeks, but there is a ton of cold lurking north and its going to hit us periodically kind of like right now...and then again Sunday/Monday.

 

While I wouldn't take it at face value, you can see the Euro in clown range showing what happens...a brief warmup, and then an arctic intrusion. Its ready to unload past D10 too on that map with a huge EPO spike.

 

 

We're probably going to be in a roller-coaster biasing cold for the next 2 weeks....and I'm sure there will be another threat or two along the way to suck people back in.

 

 

Like I said before....do you like pain?

 

 

Well...we can call it what we want, but to me, losing a cold pattern and arriving into a changeable one, in latter March mind us, IS spring. 

 

Not sure what us to call it. 

 

That said, I agree there should be cold lurking. The arriving -EPO should ensure we keep much of Canada loaded until further notice. 

[ORH_wxman]

Well...we can call it what we want, but to me, losing a cold pattern and arriving into a changeable one, in latter March mind us, IS spring. 

 

Not sure what us to call it. 

 

That said, I agree there should be cold lurking. The arriving -EPO should ensure we keep much of Canada loaded until further notice. 

 

 

I don't think it is true spring in the sense that we are going to bust out of this cold departure regime and be average near normal (and def not above as it looks right now)...I mean, we aren't going to be averaging -6 over a 15 day period either like we did the first half of this month, that was just extreme. So in that sense, you are right...we are moving out of the "extreme cold" pattern, and just into a cold one.

 

But I still think we're going to be averaging solidly below normal for the next two weeks....roller coaster was used as a description because it doesn't look like uninterrupted cold. There will be a few milder days mixed in as a system or two goes northwest of us. So we'll feel the change in calander those days, only for it to be wiped out by the next arctic cold front a day later.

 

 

It does look like there's a chance we bust into a warmer pattern for early April...but its been tough to get rid of the EPO cold delivery...models have been too eager to break it down almost all winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

There's just no end game or finish line in sight. Weeklies cold thru week 4 and CFS monthly obscene cold. Warm weather wishers are going to be as upset and frustrated as snow lovers have been recently

[CT Rain]

There's just no end game or finish line in sight. Weeklies cold thru week 4 and CFS monthly obscene cold. Warm weather wishers are going to be as upset and frustrated as snow lovers have been recently

 

Actually they look warmish by 3/30 and beyond with -PNA and SE ridge flexing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Actually they look warmish by 3/30 and beyond with -PNA and SE ridge flexing. 

I didn't think they showed that..As long as the EPO is negative we don't warm other than a day here and there before another miserable dry arctic fropa.

[CT Rain]

I didn't think they showed that..As long as the EPO is negative we don't warm other than a day here and there before another miserable dry arctic fropa.

 

Nope EPO relaxes and troughiness returns to the Pac NW. You should buy a subscription to weatherbell so you don't have to post hand-me-down information from who knows what source. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nope EPO relaxes and troughiness returns to the Pac NW. You should buy a subscription to weatherbell so you don't have to post hand-me-down information from who knows what source. 

Well Shabbs is a pretty reliable source 

[HoarfrostHubb]

You're below your seasonal average? I'm ~150%

Close. I'm around 73" now. I think I avg around 75" per season.

Not complaining but not epic. 1 good month

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't think it is true spring in the sense that we are going to bust out of this cold departure regime and be average near normal (and def not above as it looks right now)...I mean, we aren't going to be averaging -6 over a 15 day period either like we did the first half of this month, that was just extreme. So in that sense, you are right...we are moving out of the "extreme cold" pattern, and just into a cold one.

 

But I still think we're going to be averaging solidly below normal for the next two weeks....roller coaster was used as a description because it doesn't look like uninterrupted cold. There will be a few milder days mixed in as a system or two goes northwest of us. So we'll feel the change in calander those days, only for it to be wiped out by the next arctic cold front a day later.

 

 

It does look like there's a chance we bust into a warmer pattern for early April...but its been tough to get rid of the EPO cold delivery...models have been too eager to break it down almost all winter.

 

Absolutely ... 

 

Actually, I was just noticing; the last 3 years the crocus spears were poking about now, some even unfurled there purples and pinks. Not even close this time!  

 

What I mean is that, for all "intents and purposes" ...in latter March if you are not in a deep-ish winter regime, you have to be in spring. However, muted that may be, notwithstanding. 

 

But I agree wholeheartedly, that if folks want meatier seasonal change, you're going to be a vegan for awhile.  Having that -EPO like that is just not going to cut it.  

[tamarack]

This has been a 2010ish ending to the season.

 

Maybe for SNE, but for my section of NNE it could hardly be more different:

 

2010:  Mildest Feb-Mar since I moved here nearly 16 yr ago.  Mar 2010 was actually milder than 3/12 with its 80F heat.  In 2-3/2010 I recorded 46 consecutive days above my avg; in 2014 so far, my longest above avg run is 5 days.

2014:  Competing with 2003 for coldest Feb-Mar.  Feb. '14 was 10.6F colder than Feb. '10, and the difference may be even greater for March.

 

2010:  Feb-Mar 2010 totaled 11.5" snowfall, and nearly all of that was 4:1 mashed-potato slop in late Feb, a storm that concluded with 1.1" of 34F RA while NYC enjoyed their snowicane.  Never thought I'd "beat" Dec 1999's 1.3" snow for lowest total in one of the four cold months, but the 0.6" of Mar 2010 took the prize.

2014:  46.4" and counting, with 37" OG this morning.  On this date in 2010, I had 8" and five days later had none.

 

"Winter" 2010 is a hissing and a byword for NNE, and especially for Maine.

[CT Rain]

Euro ensembles way south. Stick a fork in it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro ensembles way south. Stick a fork in it. 

With us being in a low end drought now..and the ensembles/long range modeling painting a mainly coid, dry scenario this spring..and it being on pace for a record dry march..can you foresee any drought problems as we hit summer?

[radarman]

This threat went downhill faster than the UMass blarney blowout