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St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I totally agree. I wish we could have more computing power to do both. Because the RAP and HRRR are great, and particularly when it comes to convection and convective ensemble products. I know we scoff at severe in New England, but for the forecasters to our west, that stuff is a huge improvement in guidance.

 

Not that this bears much relevance to what you are saying ... but this discussion reminds me of a study suggesting GFS forecast error was primarily based upon grid density at time of initialization. 

 

The read spoke of running a GFS cycle with the ECMWF initializaiton + ECMWF initialization/assimilation schemes, and the results were pretty stunning; the GFS actually out-performed the ECM on that run.

 

I guess it just becomes a matter of the ECMWF, INC, holding our government hostage in order to pay for their initialization grid.  

 

Anyway ... somehow I find it difficult to believe that with the operational Euro's sparkle in a diamond's eye verification numbers it has for modeling events inside of 4 days, that it will be that off comparative to any NAM camp of depictions ... particularly outside of 48 hours. 

 

That operational philosophy is embarrassingly wrong, if anyone is thinking ... no, scratch that -- pleading and begging at the wailing-wall like a caveman that just saw a shooting star so he thinks the world is ending unless he sacrifices his first virgin daughter... 

 

That's about how reasonable selective model opting becomes... Not that anyone is engaging in that means to end in this, but I don't even think the operational Euro will be wrong compared to its own ensemble mean for this near of time frame.

 

Could be wrong -- the model is not 100% accurate, all the time either, just sayin'.  Folks instead might want to monitor (for fun only) the negative tilted thing the GGEM and the GFS have closer to the 20th. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Not that this bears much relevance to what you are saying ... but this discussion reminds me of a study suggesting GFS forecast error was primarily based upon grid density at time of initialization. 

 

The read spoke of running a GFS cycle with the ECMWF initializaiton + ECMWF initialization/assimilation schemes, and the results were pretty stunning; the GFS actually out-performed the ECM on that run.

 

I guess it just becomes a matter of the ECMWF, INC, holding our government hostage in order to pay for their initialization grid.  

 

Anyway ... somehow I find it difficult to believe that with the operational Euro's sparkle in a diamond's eye verification numbers it has for modeling events inside of 4 days, that it will be that off comparative to NAM camp of depictions ... particularly outside of 48 hours. 

 

That operational philosophy is embarrassingly wrong, if anyone is thinking ... no, scratch that -- pleading and begging at the wailing-wall like like a caveman that just saw a shooting star so he thinks the world is ending unless he sacrifices his first virgin daughter... 

 

That's about how reasonable selective model opting becomes... Not that anyone is engaging in that means to end in this, but I don't even think the operational Euro will be wrong compared to its own ensemble mean for this near of time frame.

 

Could be wrong -- the model is 100% accurate, all the time either, just sayin'.  Folks might want to monitor (for fun only) the negative tilted thing the GGEM and the GFS have closer to the 20th. 

 

Nope. We don't.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

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So much for all the enthusiasm and folks loving the trends. Guess this means mid week will cut. Hopefully the gun has run out of bullets..or at least jam the damn chamber so it doesn't shoot anymore

 

Just a sad turn of events post Feb 17th. I knew the other day I shouldn't get sucked into this one when i told you to delete this thread..but of course I did, so that's my fault. I'd have preferred a Morch if I knew this was how the last 40 days of winter would turn out. What a colossal waste of time

Hmmm.

Talk about me being negative.  Negativity is spewing from the pores of your shaven scalp.  The negativity dew point (NDP) around your head must be running between 75-80.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I was thinking this exact same thing this morning ... BAM!

 

"....A SURE SIGN OF SPRING SEEMS `TO EMERGE` WHEN/HOW THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FIND LITTLE IN COMMON WITH EACH OTHER ONE DAY...AND THEN THERE BECOMES A `NEED` FOR ADJUSTMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN--THE NEXT DAY. ADDING VALUE/MORE DETAIL...AND THE IMPLICATIONS TURN INTO A POSITIVE...IS WHAT SPRING FORECASTING AND CHALLENGE IS ALL ABOUT. TODAY`S FORECAST AND FOLLOWING DISCUSSION HOPE TO RELAY THOSE ADJUSTMENTS AND HIGHLIGHT THE DIFFERENCES.

 

 

Here's a wish-cast piece of reasoning; maybe with the increased error proneness intrinsic to this time of year we can count on the Euro being rarely wrong in lieu of chaos just happening to bring about a NAMalistic orgy  weeeeee!

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

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i dont blame anyone for being dissapointed.....and no thanks to the followup followup lol....at this rate there will be one more possibly maybe perhaps til memorial day....i wonder if we had this many models and such great technology back in the 70S and 80s would we have had a few seasons just like this one on the boards

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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From BOX:

 

IT APPEARS THE WRN CONUS ENERGY WILL DOMINATE...DIGGING THE TROF FURTHER W AND PULLING IN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. HOWEVER AS IT SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH STRONG CONFLUENT AND ZONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITIVE NAO/AO REGIME ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS TO SHEAR OUT AS IT APPROACHES.

 

Definitely one of the main story lines this winter.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Please..please..noone bring up that stupid argument about the data is over the the Pacific and isn't properly sampled. We have seen that BS enough the last few weeks.

 

You might be overstating things a bit. It's not so drastic that we'll see massive shifts in storm tracks, but it's enough that NCEP occasionally has dropsondes put into systems out over the Pacific to more accurately assess strength. So it matters a little.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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What Kevin means (I think) is that some people seem to overstate that as if to expect wild swings in modeling. While nothing beats good raw data, I do agree it can be overstated. Remote sensing and aircraft data are pretty good.

 

Yeah, we're talking ticks here and there, especially for the East Coast. It matters much more to a place like DDC than BOS. When you think about it, by the time the system hits the West Coast they have about 24 hours before impacts start. Those shifts can be significant. We get an extra day or two of sampling before go time.

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weathafella

weathafella

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I was worried when Steve posted the pv mean position on the euro ensembles for a 10 day lead that we were going to be cold and dry and I stated this. Fears confirmed. Few things worse than a wintry cold but dry March. Give me Morch any day of the week.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I was worried when Steve posted the pv mean position on the euro ensembles for a 10 day lead that we were going to be cold and dry and I stated this. Fears confirmed. Few things worse than a wintry cold but dry March. Give me Morch any day of the week.

A cold, dry April is probably worse..or a cold wet(liquid) April..this year one or the other seem bound to happen

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Indeed. Thankfully I'll be in a place where 70s+ are a near lock for 2 weeks 4/5-19.

if it's not going to snow..would be nice to get warmth in here. 2 years ago we were in shorts every day and my beds were all mulched by March 20th and mowing by the end of the month.  Obviously not happening this year with the glacier outside..but this has turned really, really ugly.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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We can't seem to get that one last tick...this system may have been revived enough to get the mid-atlantic another storm, but we may be stuck in the 7-10 split again...last system north, next one south. Hopefully not the case, but we need today's runs to be better than 00z.  

This has been a 2010ish ending to the season.

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weathafella

weathafella

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if it's not going to snow..would be nice to get warmth in here. 2 years ago we were in shorts every day and my beds were all mulched by March 20th and mowing by the end of the month. Obviously not happening this year with the glacier outside..but this has turned really, really ugly.

I'd much rather chance a neg nao in March. Oh well ... We enjoy the weather it's the only weather we get.

I do think that we yank very warm at some point mid to late spring.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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This has been a 2010ish ending to the season.

 

 

At least in 2010, we really didn't have a shot (though the interior elevations had a chance mid-month, but it never trended quite cold enough) due to that polar rotting airmass, though I know the hopes were high going into that March with the blocking pattern.....this current pattern has been taunting us for the first half of the month with a big storm down in the M.A. on 3/3 and a huge storm just 100 miles north of us 3/12-13....its been some cruddy luck. We've had a ton of cold and two big systems close by, but they have conspired to leave us in the 7/10 split.

 

 

The irony is that there will be little rest for the weary as this pattern is almost certainly going to produce more threats between now and the end of the month. Who likes pain? :lol:

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