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St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I totally agree. I wish we could have more computing power to do both. Because the RAP and HRRR are great, and particularly when it comes to convection and convective ensemble products. I know we scoff at severe in New England, but for the forecasters to our west, that stuff is a huge improvement in guidance.

 

 

Its also basically why they punted the NAM synoptic ability I feel like....they really improved the NAM's convection performance, but it seems to have come at the expense of synoptics...at least in the winter up here.

 

 

But in all honesty...given that the NAM is a mesoscale model, and the severe in the plains is more important than winter storms up here, I can see why the sacrifice was made. It is worth it in the scheme of things even if we don't like it in our backyards. :lol:

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Its also basically why they punted the NAM synoptic ability I feel like....they really improved the NAM's convection performance, but it seems to have come at the expense of synoptics...at least in the winter up here.

 

 

But in all honesty...given that the NAM is a mesoscale model, and the severe in the plains is more important than winter storms up here, I can see why the sacrifice was made. It is worth it in the scheme of things even if we don't like it in our backyards. :lol:

 

Exactly, weather is all relative. This board is hyper sensitive to IMBY weather, but even us mets can fall into the IMBYism when it comes to New England or the Northeast. For example, we've mentioned the Euro hasn't been its usual killer self this winter, but on the global scale it's been crushing all other guidance. Sometimes it's hard to the see the forest for trees in your local area.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I've heard the op Euro will be going down to 10 km soon (in the next two years). They have bought two new supercomputers for 15 times our current computing power over here.

It would be funny if the better resolution resulted in NAM like solutions. :lol: it probably would not happen knowing the data and assimilation scheme, but for the amount they charge...it better have good results.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Exactly, weather is all relative. This board is hyper sensitive to IMBY weather, but even us mets can fall into the IMBYism when it comes to New England or the Northeast. For example, we've mentioned the Euro hasn't been its usual killer self this winter, but on the global scale it's been crushing all other guidance. Sometimes it's hard to the see the forest for trees in your local area.

We have places in Japan and up in Hokkaido that have similar coastal storms such as we do and the euro is good with thermal profiles there.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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It would be funny if the better resolution resulted in NAM like solutions. :lol: it probably would not happen knowing the data and assimilation scheme, but for the amount they charge...it better have good results.

 

I find it funny that the higher ups get bonuses based on beating the GFS. Then again, we are mostly tracked on improvement on the GFS (especially in aviation). So that's job security right there.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It would be funny if the better resolution resulted in NAM like solutions. :lol: it probably would not happen knowing the data and assimilation scheme, but for the amount they charge...it better have good results.

 

As long as the Euro remains hydrostatic, I don't think you'll see nam solutions.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Ya think these are a tad overdone? LOL.

attachicon.giff87.gif

 

 

Already 40% for over 8" in spots over SNE...lol. What a joke.

 

The worst was right before this last storm, literally 24 hours lead time, they had over 50% for 8"+ at ORH, almost all from the backlash/ULL stuff. That's just brutal.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Israel has a lot of micro climates and topography is huge there. Global models weren't doing a good job with the more coarse resolution.

That's actually essentially bullshiat. Their govt loves to piz away $$. I've been in all the micros enough to know that the only issue is water which I would think current technology works for.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Kind of a scraper this run (better for SE MA/RI/S CT)....but we're really getting into territory on the NAM not even worth discussing.

 

 

I'm mostly looking inside of 48h to see how that energy is handled out of the rockies. Hopefully RGEM keeps it more consolidated.

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