St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

[Ginx snewx]

Euro ensembles on the qpf show disagreement on the two lows too...there's an initial slug of precip around 84 hours that makes it to SNE (best south of the pike)....and then another surge aorund 102-108 hours which is from a 2nd low.

Yep

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro ensembles on the qpf show disagreement on the two lows too...there's an initial slug of precip around 84 hours that makes it to SNE (best south of the pike)....and then another surge aorund 102-108 hours which is from a 2nd low.

So like Sun nite into Mon am..then a  break..then another round later Monday into Monday nite?

[forkyfork]

euro ens mean looks south of 12z

[ORH_wxman]

So like Sun nite into Mon am..then a  break..then another round later Monday into Monday nite?

 

 

I wouldn't think we get a two part system...its probably going to congeal into one. If it stays two parts, then that's probably not good for us as it it means easier to suppress with the two vortmaxes not really phased.

[Cold Miser]

euro ens mean looks south of 12z

...And then life started to slowly get sucked out of the party.

[Damage In Tolland]

...And then life started to slowly get sucked out of the party.

Until you realized who made that post..then the music got louder and 3 more kegs arrived with busloads of girls

[HoarfrostHubb]

Until you realized who made that post..then the music got louder and 3 more kegs arrived with busloads of girls

You should listen to him

[Damage In Tolland]

You should listen to him

He hasn't gotten 1 forecast right ..like ever

[CoastalWx]

Based on the MSLP track it didn't really come north, but part of that may be the two part disagreement.

[weathafella]

He hasn't gotten 1 forecast right ..like ever

He's actually pretty knowledgable and generally is correct in those posts. We know he trolls us but that was not a troll post.

[Ginx snewx]

He's actually pretty knowledgable and generally is correct in those posts. We know he trolls us but that was not a troll post.

mean is south for storm 1 as I posted but still plowable.

[Damage In Tolland]

He's actually pretty knowledgable and generally is correct in those posts. We know he trolls us but that was not a troll post.

I don't agree, but to each their own

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Srefs are still extremely far north

[Ginx snewx]

Srefs are still extremely far north

crushed

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

crushed

Yup, that would be a shellacking

[CoastalWx]

Would be nice if just once the SREFs had a clue that far out. Just once. I'm not even saying it should nail a forecast..just have a freaking clue.

[Cold Miser]

mean is south for storm 1 as I posted but still plowable.

That's reassuring, and could mean a dusting.

 

On the state road that I live on, they plow when there is literally a speck of snow on the asphalt.  I kid you not.  I've actually been keeping record of all of the useless times that they've driven by when they should not have. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Would be nice if just once the SREFs had a clue that far out. Just once. I'm not even saying it should nail a forecast..just have a freaking clue.

I didn't think they were too bad at the beginning of the winter. Since then however, they have been putrid. If they have a clue, that would be a hell of a way to finish off winter

[Ginx snewx]

That's reassuring, and could mean a dusting.

On the state road that I live on, they plow when there is literally a speck of snow on the asphalt. I kid you not. I've actually been keeping record of all of the useless times that they've driven by when they should not have.

My son in laws Uncle plows our road for the town,top notch,big hill tricky plow area plus he takes it easy on my driveway. Euro Ens could also mean a big hit.

[OceanStWx]

Would be nice if just once the SREFs had a clue that far out. Just once. I'm not even saying it should nail a forecast..just have a freaking clue.

 

I've got a conference call next week about the coming upgrades. I'm curious what initial testing is all about.

[Ginx snewx]

Would be nice if just once the SREFs had a clue that far out. Just once. I'm not even saying it should nail a forecast..just have a freaking clue.

how much you think it costs to run all these useless models everyday, junk them put all the eggs in upgrading NAM and GFS

[HoarfrostHubb]

how much you think it costs to run all these useless models everyday, junk them put all the eggs in upgrading NAM and GFS

TRS-80s cost $$$ to maintain

[CoastalWx]

I've got a conference call next week about the coming upgrades. I'm curious what initial testing is all about.

I feel like they may reduce how "wet" they are but it still may not address how overamped they can get. I guess less wet equals less latent heat which equals less amped up, but it seems hard to believe the inherent flaws will be corrected.

[OceanStWx]

how much you think it costs to run all these useless models everyday, junk them put all the eggs in upgrading NAM and GFS

 

There is a legit argument to be made that running a sub-par model or ensemble takes away computing power from really upgrading the GFS for instance.

 

There is a reason the ECMWF runs such a good model. They basically only have to worry about two model runs a day plus ensembles, and can pack superior physics and data assimilation into those runs. On this side of the pond we have two model, run four times a day, plus the ensembles, plus hi-res models, plus climate stuff, etc. We have to cut computing resource corners somewhere to get it all done, and that's why our modeling is lagging the rest of the world right now.

[CoastalWx]

I do stick up for NCEP for running high res models like the RAP HRRR etc., because I feel they do a pretty good job with the T+15hr or so period. I don't see other countries doing this, although I may be wrong.

[Ginx snewx]

There is a legit argument to be made that running a sub-par model or ensemble takes away computing power from really upgrading the GFS for instance.

 

There is a reason the ECMWF runs such a good model. They basically only have to worry about two model runs a day plus ensembles, and can pack superior physics and data assimilation into those runs. On this side of the pond we have two model, run four times a day, plus the ensembles, plus hi-res models, plus climate stuff, etc. We have to cut computing resource corners somewhere to get it all done, and that's why our modeling is lagging the rest of the world right now.

exactly and looking around at all the experimental models wow. Put me in charge for a day, I am great at streamlining budgets and prioritizing resources.

[CoastalWx]

I did hear the ECMWF guys gave the folks in Israel a 7km version of the ECMWF op run. Pretty sure that was the horizontal resolution.

[OceanStWx]

I do stick up for NCEP for running high res models like the RAP HRRR etc., because I feel they do a pretty good job with the T+15hr or so period. I don't see other countries doing this, although I may be wrong.

 

I totally agree. I wish we could have more computing power to do both. Because the RAP and HRRR are great, and particularly when it comes to convection and convective ensemble products. I know we scoff at severe in New England, but for the forecasters to our west, that stuff is a huge improvement in guidance.

[OceanStWx]

I did hear the ECMWF guys gave the folks in Israel a 7km version of the ECMWF op run. Pretty sure that was the horizontal resolution.

 

I've heard the op Euro will be going down to 10 km soon (in the next two years). They have bought two new supercomputers for 15 times our current computing power over here.

[JC-CT]

euro ens mean looks south of 12z

 

 

He hasn't gotten 1 forecast right ..like ever

 

It wasn't a forecast, it was a description of a model run verbatim. Which...is useful information to share for those without access to the ensembles, but not exactly going out on a limb trying to add any meteorologist skill points to a model output.