St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

[cja1987]

GGEM is OK, sort of GFS like. At least its still there and brings some accums verbatim.

 

Starting to get a better idea of what is on the table for the first wave 3/17, 19-20ish still pretty poor run to run continuity on most guidance. I don't think 19/20 ends up as a completely torched cutter, gun to head right now I'd say we are trending toward a possible front end thump, low to moderate impact with plenty of room for a colder solution through the duration of whatever happens.

 

So much potential and we are only 4 days out. I literally would not be surprised if I end up with 0" or 20" over the next week. Favor zero but eyes are open.

 

These signals have got to be watched and a high index of suspicion maintained for sneaky, long duration dumps (ie March of last year). Models never seem to latch onto these types of things until the 11th hour.

[joey2002]

Congrats DC... Euro keeps most of the precip south of here aside from flurries.  

 

Slightly north of 12z, but not much.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice hit on pretty much everything except the Euro which came north again..so the N trend isn't done.

 

Looks like there's no way now that we avoid a cutter with the mid week storm

[NorEastermass128]

6z NAM is an absolute bomb for SNE and into CNE. Would be long duration too.

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM seems to have taken over

[CoastalWx]

Slow tick north on guidance at 06z.

[NorEastermass128]

GFS much more progressive and hence, weak sauce.

[Damage In Tolland]

Slow tick north on guidance at 06z.

From what I heard Euro ens looked good again sim to 12z

[JC-CT]

Looks like zilch (Euro) to 2' (NAM). GFS and GGEM somewhere in between.

[CoastalWx]

From what I heard Euro ens looked good again sim to 12z

Still a little south for my liking. I didn't compare it to 12z.

[Damage In Tolland]

Still a little south for my liking. I didn't compare it to 12z.

Well maybe it's a pike south hit

[CoastalWx]

Well maybe it's a pike south hit

That's normally a great look for us when the low is over the deep south. That PV will have a say, but we may still see some room for this to come north. The thing is though, you want a nice omega thump and and 0.25" in 6 hrs or something like that especially during the day. If that happens its not going to stick to much unless it's very cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's normally a great look for us when the low is over the deep south. That PV will have a say, but we may still see some room for this to come north. The thing is though, you want a nice omega thump and and 0.25" in 6 hrs or something like that especially during the day. If that happens its not going to stick to much unless it's very cold.

Well it does look very cold..if 20's is very cold I guess

[HoarfrostHubb]

Very interested in seeing the 12z guidance, esp. the Euro.

Small moves in that model seem to be the key, although with this last event there was that 1 big jump that actually wound up being more correct.

 

Southern areas seem to be in pretty decent shape for this.  The 06z NAM is gorgeous, but that is with weenie goggles on. The GFS is "meh" although that later smaller system intrigues me.

[CoastalWx]

Well it does look very cold..if 20's is very cold I guess

Well you know what I mean. You don't want sky brightness and like 1-2sm vis of fluff because despite temps..it probably won't stick to much.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well you know what I mean. You don't want sky brightness and like 1-2sm vis of fluff because despite temps..it probably won't stick to much.

i know what you mean. But it seems this time of year you just can't avoid that sky brightness after 9:00 am

[HoarfrostHubb]

i know what you mean. But it seems this time of year you just can't avoid that sky brightness after 9:00 am

Is this the weenie met term for the Sun?

[CoastalWx]

i know what you mean. But it seems this time of year you just can't avoid that sky brightness after 9:00 am

Welk I mean bright skies despite cloudy conditions. IOW not a good overcast thanks to crappy precip rates and drier air working in.

Anyways that is nit picking. At least the last 18hrs or so have been inching north. Hopefully it continues.

[CoastalWx]

Next week might not be a cutter at all. Signs of CAD.

[weathafella]

Will is correct in that if this makes it up here as a big storm the cutter ain't happening.

And yes, it's coming!

[Damage In Tolland]

Is this the weenie met term for the Sun?

Like yesterday did you notice when it was snowing it was still bright. You still needed to wear your sunglasses when driving to avoid squinting. Unless the cloud base is low or you have heavy snow the sun angle just makes things super bright

[weathafella]

Like yesterday did you notice when it was snowing it was still bright. You still needed to wear your sunglasses when driving to avoid squinting. Unless the cloud base is low or you have heavy snow the sun angle just makes things super bright

Like yesterday did you notice when it was snowing it was still bright. You still needed to wear your sunglasses when driving to avoid squinting. Unless the cloud base is low or you have heavy snow the sun angle just makes things super bright

Welcome to Morch.

[CoastalWx]

The GEFS actually have a lot of decent hits, it's just that some members concentrate on the first wave and some on the second. So, we have some disagreement with which low will be more dominant. 

[Ginx snewx]

The GEFS actually have a lot of decent hits, it's just that some members concentrate on the first wave and some on the second. So, we have some disagreement with which low will be more dominant. 

Cold, holy heck

[JC-CT]

The GEFS actually have a lot of decent hits, it's just that some members concentrate on the first wave and some on the second. So, we have some disagreement with which low will be more dominant.

It will be very interesting to see what happens with this one from a model standpoint. Intuition says the Euro will jump north at some point, but excluding the NAM and SREFS (and JMA?), I would also not be surprised if we have already reached the northern edge of the guidance on the GFS and CMC.

Needless to say this year, I like the area from PHL to NYC.

[Ginx snewx]

Well maybe it's a pike south hit

we have sources

[ORH_wxman]

This looks really cold like the past few in the cold sector....yesterday's, the DC hit where they had snow and 20F on 3/3.

[Damage In Tolland]

Anyone see the Euro weeklies and CFS thru end of April?  LOL..it's like an extra month of winter thru end of April.. CFS looks nasty

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles on the qpf show disagreement on the two lows too...there's an initial slug of precip around 84 hours that makes it to SNE (best south of the pike)....and then another surge aorund 102-108 hours which is from a 2nd low.

[CoastalWx]

I'm tossing everything except the SREFs and NAM.