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St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

I don't know if it will work out.  But the 12z GFS is the sort of threat you want in March...

Large system, moisture sources wide open, high amplitude southern stream trof, strong cold air source.  It might get squashed but at least there is the chance of getting big moisture up into a cold airmass.  And of course if you're extremely lucky and the trof evolves perfectly, you can sometimes get strong surface deepening this time of year as well.  The temp gradient is big this time of year, which enhances baroclinicity, and the upper limit of storm strenghening potential.  Trackable threats continue...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Clearly the difference IMHO is the PV orientation and the amplitide of the ridge out west. 00z euro wflatter with the ridge out west and hence more progressive as compared to the 12z run yesterday. This also allowed for energy to dig south with the flow out of the Plains more westerly. The GFS today has a decent amplitude ridge which is at least helping some of the energy spawn a low in the deep south despite the energy splitting.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Clearly the difference IMHO is the PV orientation and the amplitide of the ridge out west. 00z euro wflatter with the ridge out west and hence more progressive as compared to the 12z run yesterday. This also allowed for energy to dig south with the flow out of the Plains more westerly. The GFS today has a decent amplitude ridge which is at least helping some of the energy spawn a low in the deep south despite the energy splitting.

Yeah, that and notice the difference in location of the closed ULL accross the southern tier.  The differences in 12h on the GFS are lol-tastic.  Only about 1000mi difference in that feature.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Yeah, that and notice the difference in location of the closed ULL accross the southern tier.  The differences in 12h on the GFS are lol-tastic.  Only about 1000mi difference in that feature.

 

It trended a bit weaker with the s/w diving south into TX compared to 00z which maybe why it does not retro towards NM.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Yeah, that and notice the difference in location of the closed ULL accross the southern tier.  The differences in 12h on the GFS are lol-tastic.  Only about 1000mi difference in that feature.

 

Even though last night's Euro trended towards the GFS solution, it was still a major swing from the previous model run. That's the main reason I haven't been ready to write this one off even though they were somewhat in consensus.

 

If the Euro, GFS and CMC come into agreement on a southern solution, that would be the time to w/o the event.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Trying really hard. Big change at 500mb that was visible at hr 72.

 

Yup, the trough dynamics being more coherent/bundled, and less sheared is obvious .. .but for me, the most pivotal (no pun it will turn out to be intended...) is the SPV looking much more GGEMish

 

At 96 hours, the 00z version didn't have much interest in repositioning that feature, now the 84 hour shows it being mightly stressed ENE toward the outer Maritimes by its own mechanics.  That DOES allow something space should it need to arrive -- at least one can say that...

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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Withe the southern stream energy, if that can be a bit more progressive it will give more separation from the kicker on it's heel that is diving S out of BC.  Very difficult for the models to key in on at this timeframe.  Just sort of a wait and see mode right now.  I'm not confident of anything right now other than the sun rising and setting.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Looks like a Miller A canon ball that might still miss S...

 

But, if you want another shot at a late season finale, it's a good start. 

 

Thing about the Euro, I am not fully convinced that it's old bias of lore, where it liked to "tuck"/"strand" dynamics SW isn't afoot. I have never actually heard it discretely stated that upgrade intended to address that problem.  We just sort of assume that since overall, it's a pretty f outstanding model inside of D4 ...  But therein is the rub, it IS an outstanding model inside of D4, and though it is not "D4" for the east coast, per se, it is D4 ...D3 actually, for the southern Rockies. Hm.  tough one there.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

Past performance is no indicator of future performance

I suppose every situation is different, but we are still dealing with the PV. That is a huge factor in this storm, and what crapped out our previous threats.

I'm hoping for one last system, you get the feel this is all or nothing in terms of this particular event

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Post screen capture here or it didn't happen.

 

Considering what the model is ... not worth that effort.  Just that it was an amusing 30 hour pounding of moderate to at times, super heavy snow... Prolly a solid 24-30" deal for many in SNE, beginning SW-NE at 96 hours and ending around 126 ... 

 

Thing is, while not as lewd with snow totals, the GGEM actually bit on a similar solution on the 12z run yesterday ...then, it was book-ended around 120.  It's run last night really delivered the same theme.  It's storm is 40 hours long, too, coming in two distinct waves.

 

That's actually not too disparate comparing the 12z GFS run; it has a flattish wave skirting by SE along the baroclinic zone, then brings a Miller A ... both are too far SE to really be meaningful, but the gist of what that singles is in the same camp of thinking to these "less than reliable" model types. 

 

It's not just been the year of the nickle and dime events... It's been the year of 'guess what I'm thinking'

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

GGEM a pretty nice hit...esp south of the pike.

 

Ukie looks interesting at 72h, but can't see beyond that. Might be a similar type of scraper or south of pike hit if I had to guess. Doesn't really matter at this point, but keeping more energy intact and not burying ti in the souhtwest is a trend you want to see to get this thing north as an organized system

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

I suppose every situation is different, but we are still dealing with the PV. That is a huge factor in this storm, and what crapped out our previous threats.

I'm hoping for one last system, you get the feel this is all or nothing in terms of this particular event

True dat. The lobes are so finicky in this progressive flow.  Gotta catch the wave to ride it to glory.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think we all locked in the 6z DGEX. What a great use of govt resources that model is.

 

 

Too bad it can't be right for once. Hits just about everyone with warning criteria and probably like 20" for eastern zones. :lol:

 

 

If they ran the ARW model to 192 hours, I think it would look like the DGEX .

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