Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 UKMET splits the energy off as well, but the initial wave has enough strength to get like 3-7" for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ukmet is a trainwreck too Trainwreck if you were hoping for a huge MECS or something, but it still clips the southern areas fairly well. .5-.75 with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Awful GFS run. WIth GFS we continue to be dependent on a surge of overrunning because the low itself is very far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS isn't that bad since there are people in this forum that live south of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Trainwreck if you were hoping for a huge MECS or something, but it still clips the southern areas fairly well. .5-.75 with more to come.I agree but it took a huge step towards the gfs unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM is way south, it buried a ton of energy, this one is almost in the trash can...We're at the range where models start focusing in...Been a great winter lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 can we not turn this into a bipolar, debbie-downer nyc model update thread... many runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 can we not turn this into a debbie-downer nyc model update thread... many runs to go. All of the 12z data buried the energy in the south around Texas...We're getting closer to the event and to the point where models start to hone in...Its not over, but I'm jumping ship for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 can we not turn this into a debbie-downer nyc model update thread... many runs to go. Some of the energy came ashore, that's a likely cause of the shift (better data sampling). Its not *over* but certainly not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 a middle of march event turns odds towards a more juiced up event. not fully like the QPF hungry NAM...but close. I know it's just the NAM.....but it's been consistent the last 2 to 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wonder if it keeps trending south. RIC maybe a winner again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 a middle of march event turns odds towards a more juiced up event. not fully like the QPF hungry NAM...but close. I know it's just the NAM.....but it's been consistent the last 2 to 3 runs. Exactly its the NAM Right now with the runs its the NAM against all...and the NAM at 60+ hr range. Lol can't even debate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 a middle of march event turns odds towards a more juiced up event. not fully like the QPF hungry NAM...but close. I know it's just the NAM.....but it's been consistent the last 2 to 3 runs. The NAM has actually had large north and south shifts since 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We went from ZOMG MECS at 6Z to "in the trash can" at 12Z. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A coating to 3" is my early call for my area. Expecting little and hoping for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 A coating to 3" is my early call for my area. Expecting little and hoping for more. Still to early for snow calls, but if that is what we get, expect it only on grassy surfaces. Light precip wont accumulate on the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If I recall correctly (and someone do correct me if I'm wrong), this was about when the GGEM collapsed south ahead of March 3rd, too. But maybe I'm mis-remembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 We went from ZOMG MECS at 6Z to "in the trash can" at 12Z. Really? If this was 120-144 hours out then yes, that would be unfair, but we're within the range where models start to get a good vibe on how things will play out. We were all hoping the energy wouldn't bury itself in the southwest and come out all at once, but all the 12z data save the NAM (which even does this a bit) does this....12z today was huge, and it failed terribly. This sucks, but what are you gonna do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Still to early for snow calls, but if that is what we get, expect it only on grassy surfaces. Light precip wont accumulate on the pavement.I don't think its too early for snow totals. I'm going conservative with hopes if I neex to tweak it will be upward but again...bracing for little and hoping for more :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If this was 120-144 hours out then yes, that would be unfair, but we're within the range where models start to get a good vibe on how things will play out. We were all hoping the energy wouldn't bury itself in the southwest and come out all at once, but all the 12z data save the NAM (which even does this a bit) does this....12z today was huge, and it failed terribly. This sucks, but what are you gonna do about it. I still think there is a way to get a decent snow event out of this storm. Even the gfs isnt terribly far off from that, and the UKMET would be a decent amount of snow. Of course, because of the time of year it will have some trouble sticking when rates arent high. I do think the idea of a big storm is looking less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM has actually had large north and south shifts since 0Z. but it's still been very QPF heavy for the area. (6z and 12z) A ton of gulf and Atlantic moisture to work with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If I recall correctly (and someone do correct me if I'm wrong), this was about when the GGEM collapsed south ahead of March 3rd, too. But maybe I'm mis-remembering. Close Ray it was between 72-84hrs out when it went south march 3. Waited longer this time so as to crush weenie dreams even more. Funny seems like most years there is some kind of St Patricks day threat that usually ends up vanishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Only 4 hours ago you proclaimed a 75% chance that PHL would see 4" or greater. All of the 12z data buried the energy in the south around Texas...We're getting closer to the event and to the point where models start to hone in...Its not over, but I'm jumping ship for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If I recall correctly (and someone do correct me if I'm wrong), this was about when the GGEM collapsed south ahead of March 3rd, too. But maybe I'm mis-remembering. This is accurate, it was 12Z Friday. I thought maybe it was just a bunch of off runs, 0z came even further south and so the southward plummet went. Edit; Or maybe it was Thursday at 12Z. My memory blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This is accurate, it was 12Z Friday. I thought maybe it was just a bunch of off runs, 0z came even further south and so the southward plummet went. Edit; Or maybe it was Thursday at 12Z. My memory blows. I believe it was 12Z Friday, so roughly the same lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Only 4 hours ago you proclaimed a 75% chance that PHL would see 4" or greater. THe 12z GFS individuals are brutally south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well the nam was fun but thats it. Thread closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well the nam was fun but thats it. Thread closed. well that certainly was a fun 5-6 days of tracking :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro appears to be trending south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 THe 12z GFS individuals are brutally south You probably saw this but from Hm in the mid Atlantic sub forum. "The 12z runs made some subtle long wave changes that affected the way our s/w manifests. Initially, you'll look at the models and say "more energy is hanging back/split off" and really that would be a fine analysis. The issue here is that the subtle changes in the western ridge affects the jet across the northern-tier. Between this process and the slower exit of the PV (which by itself wouldn't be a big deal...but it is a killer in combination with broadening western ridge), the flow speeds up, reducing partial phasing of s/w. Here's the good news before you start to compare how amazingly annoying that it was the 12z runs 2Fridays ago that also started to shift the storm: that 3/3 system was being punished by a much more wicked PV and lobe dropping down from Ontario. In fact, it pushed in considerable dry and cold air advection throughout the precipitation shield, reducing accumulating snow to just the convergence zones post-initial thump WAA. In this case, despite the 12z shifts, we are still seeing frontogenetic forcing within general WAA across MA. This means, old rules apply about "edge of QPF shield" since that is conveniently placed along the 850mb deformation zone." " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.