Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 All I remember is during the last major storm the EURO/GFS continually caved toward the GGEM run after run as we got closer to the event. The GGEM is been fairly consistent here, so this will be a good test for it. NAM is most likely out to lunch with its way North solution, I imagine it'll come south at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some very big hits on the 6z GFS ensembles....Hopefully the 12z suite makes a lot of us happy. I think Philly is in a good spot, North enough so that it is cold enough and far enough south to get the heavy rates. We'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SECS looks likely for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 06z GFS came in with .5 - .75 inches of precip all snow for the area. That's deceiving... its strung out like the Euro, with rather light precip during the day which probably would have difficulty accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 SREFs still damn good hit here. Right now I'd say for Philly...(my personal feeling) 15%: 8-14" 60%: 4-8" 25%: 1-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 That's deceiving... its strung out like the Euro, with rather light precip during the day which probably would have difficulty accumulating. Yeah, While it was strung out, I think overall it did try to bring all the energy out to create one main low it just struggled in the process...but its the 6z GFS and the 12z will likely change it completely. That being said a 6z GFS type solution would not be good for the city, we'd def have accumulation issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 SECS looks likely for us. Im all-in for a MECS on this one...forget the SECS :-) The NAM is likely too far North and/or amped up (I dont trust it past 36 hrs anymore anyway). The GFS is likely a closer solution but too dry and the ULL looks to just skirt us. I am siding with the GGEM for now as it has been most consistent and has a hot hand. Perhaps a Euro/GGEM blend is in order? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 The GGEM has really impressed me of late. Even with the storm 2 days ago it never showed a snow solution like the GFS had a few days before. Idk if its the type of pattern or if the GGEM was recently upgraded, but it has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The GGEM has really impressed me of late. Even with the storm 2 days ago it never showed a snow solution like the GFS had a few days before. Idk if its the type of pattern or if the GGEM was recently upgraded, but it has been good. GGEM had a major upgrade last year from what I can recall and was supposed to (apparently did) make it comparable to the Euro. Its no wonder they both lead the pack right now in verification scores. The GFS has been out to lunch with this storm since day 1 so I am not buying into it right now. That darn model was the reason I called this threat dead 3-4 days ago....excels in the medium range my arse. Now i'm eating crow. Gonna ride the hot hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I feel like the snow will have little trouble accumulating since it's supposed to start at night. By Monday afternoon, snow will just be accumulating on top of the snow that has already fallen, and not the "warm" ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I feel like the snow will have little trouble accumulating since it's supposed to start at night. By Monday afternoon, snow will just be accumulating on top of the snow that has already fallen, and not the "warm" ground.but we have an extra hour of daylight and that darn sun angle ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This seems insane to me. How many times has PHL gotten 8-14" in March going back on the record books? Maybe a handful of times over the past 100 years. Its possible but highly highly unlikely. Even 4-8" is a major stretch IMO. You have to give climo serious consideration when making these proclamations. I'd go more with: 15% - greater than 4" 25% - 2-4" 60% - less than 2" SREFs still damn good hit here. Right now I'd say for Philly...(my personal feeling) 15%: 8-14" 60%: 4-8" 25%: 1-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 but we have an extra hour of daylight and that darn sun angle ;-) Sun angle is real...you can feel it. Not on lawns as much and existing snow but light precip + temps 30-32 + salt = wet roads this time of year. A burst may accumulate for a bit but once it lets up...slop/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I feel like the snow will have little trouble accumulating since it's supposed to start at night. By Monday afternoon, snow will just be accumulating on top of the snow that has already fallen, and not the "warm" ground. The snow will start falling on unfrozen March ground, so the chance of melting from underneath is fairly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 At 5pm yesterday it was 28f, low 14 and our lawn that gets most sun and didn't have snow was soggy so sun angle is huge now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 nam out to hr54, 32 line up in poconos, 0 line cape may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 57hr, 4pm, 32 line down to abe 60hr, snowing in pa, 32 surface south/east of philly into nj precip futher west also, sw pa dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 hvy snows, 66hr, 69hr. still snowing 75hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yup, big hit on nam for philly, nw burbs into nj. lets see what gfs has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 NAM took a step towards globals with handling the energy in the NW, still it gives us some sick snows on the front end. I guess it is like WAA snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The real question now is will the NAM hold or will it trend weaker like the GFS and Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The real question now is will the NAM hold or will it trend weaker like the GFS and Euro... Or vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The real question now is will the NAM hold or will it trend weaker like the GFS and Euro...and imo what does it do with the ull after 84 hrs. Meh, I digress....shouldn't be analyzing this model past 36 hrs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't like the RGEM @ 48 hours, digging that trough way too far south. Looks fairly similar to 6z GFS @ 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The snow will start falling on unfrozen March ground, so the chance of melting from underneath is fairly high. ground is frozen here, tried doing some p-lot edge repairs....no go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS looks like crappo....I imagine based on the RGEM the GGEM might be a little south too...we'll see. Not liking 12z trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 ground is frozen here, tried doing some p-lot edge repairs....no go Its frozen now after the big freeze yesterday, but there are some mild days between now and the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Strong convergance on the gfs pushes best snow south of phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ukmet is a trainwreck too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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