Doorman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 small re-post for your crew OPC is on your side-- atm OPC 96hr surface cast Highlighted for Clarity Original http://www.opc.ncep....ml/A_96hrbw.gif Canadian High 1032mb and creeping back north a bit -extrap- Atlantic High --Slides East First Wave ---dissipation marker (yellow) Second Wave at 996mb>>> on its way to the Benchmark (or very near it) Old School 1020mb line--- blue arrows aside from the slide east ....with the Atlantic High (Southeast Ridge) this looks like a very sweet set-up for the snow bunnies round here----IMHO---- qpf is not my game dm Greenland ---downstream traffic at 1032mb ...... best it has been in weeks http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/OPC_ATL.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Overall I would say we are in better shape than we were 24 hrs. ago as most models are converging on at least some snow. Plenty of time to go and hanging energy back in the southwest seems like an unlikely scenario, would expect at least a good portion of it to come out. exactly...in a progressive pattern I bet you the energy will bowling ball out in one piece. Just my opinion tho. I can't see split pieces cutting off in mexico though we are entering cutoff low season but usually at mid latitudes, correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I get called names if make a pessamistic post in the NYC thread. They are out for hotdogs with no buns in the thread. I just don't see the idea of a big or event medium to small event in the NYC area. All you read is how the euro and GFS are trending towards the GGEM. They way I see it is the GGEM trended towards the GFS. I want one last storm too, but serious weenies getting tossed again over there. They're only interested in trends for the NYC area, to hell with the interior. If it's closing in on a big solution for the metro, then yes they'll get excited, even if the interior sees totals cut by 75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Why do I love the 18z GFS? Gives Philadelphia and central NJ .50-.75 - all snow Too bad a good bit of it falls during the day at a low rate. As modeled this is a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 0z NAM goes boom real far north and way out of it's range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 0z NAM goes boom real far north and way out of it's range Its a serious hit looks like that one GGEM run. But NAM at 84? Always questionable. A weenie's paradise though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 MECS this run. Solid rates as well. SREF/NAM not budging on a more amped/wetter solution. I would doubt that all the models tonight will show this, but the GEFS/EURO ENS were NW of their OPs, respectably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah its the 84hr nam but this one was 84hr nam also and I received 8.5" http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42649-feb-3rd-possible-snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM is so amped that it surges warm air in at 800 mb and changes it to sleet all the way to Upper Bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The NAM is so amped that it surges warm air in at 800 mb and changes it to sleet all the way to Upper Bucks. Ya, interesting. Still looks like a solid 10"-12" with the ULL coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ya, interesting. Still looks like a solid 10"-12" with the ULL coming through. This ULL isn't related to the 2/13 ULL one is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This ULL isn't related to the 2/13 ULL one is it? What do you mean? Its a different ULL. GFS gives DYL .7"QPF and .8"QPF for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What do you mean? Its a different ULL. GFS gives DYL .7"QPF and .8"QPF for PHL. Sorry, poor attempt at humor. The last ULL we were to rely on was a disaster, I believe it was on Feb 12/13 I think. The RAP, HRRR was giving us excellent qpf but it all turned out to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Nice GFS run i'll take it we are going the reverse of March 3. Good amount of overrunning precipitation and cold. 8-11" most of SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM likes to show big hits at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah GGEM bounces back north and sweet spots SEPA 10-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah GGEM bounces back north and sweet spots SEPA 10-14" Yup, 10" - 14" from DC to NYC. Nice MECSy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The GGEM has really been consistent with this one so far. It has done a great job with storms over the past month. I think it might be worth giving it a little more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The GGEM has really been consistent with this one so far. It has done a great job with storms over the past month. I think it might be worth giving it a little more weight.I believe the ggem is currently ranked #1 in verification scores with the euro close behind at #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I believe the ggem is currently ranked #1 in verification scores with the euro close behind at #2 Other way around. The Euro is # 1 with the Ggem a little behind as # 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Anyone know what that person 'katodog' is thinking about this storm? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I hear euro is 3-5" in SEPA and 6-10" SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 MA forum not too pleased w/the Euro...not sure if it's further N looks like temp issues. Not sure how this affects us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 MA forum not too pleased w/the Euro...not sure if it's further N looks like temp issues. Not sure how this affects us... Two parts and strung out and drier for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Two parts and strung out and drier for them Ok. Can't quite tell in that forum sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 2" of snow falling over 12 hours during daylight in mid March... that's gonna have trouble actually happening. That's a problem with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 2" of snow falling over 12 hours during daylight in mid March... that's gonna have trouble actually happening. That's a problem with the Euro. With marginal temps....may as well be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Thats assuming the EURO is right... comprimise shoud occur I think today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 It seems the NAM/JMA/GGEM/SREF would argue for a much wetter front end compared to the EURO/GFS....We'll see... The 00z EURO ens looked more robust than OP to my eye. Though it looks like the mean dropped a tad which is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 06z GFS came in with .5 - .75 inches of precip all snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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